Winter 2022-23

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think these were next up in @snowman19's queue of tweets to quote...lol

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

I'd post the H5 chart....2m charts aren't as accurate and will often be biased warm.

[psuhoffman]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd post the H5 chart....2m charts aren't as accurate and will often be biased warm.

Agree…but temps are biased warmer now and that does matter more down here.  Part of the reason DC is in the midst of its least snowy 6 year period in history is the dominant unfavorable Pac base state (and there is some speculation that may be climate change related also!) but another part is that DC has wasted some pretty good H5 patterns where in the past they would manage a 32 degree snowstorm and instead got a 36 degree perfect track mid winter rain storm.  We can’t just dismiss that factor down here like New England can. 

[psuhoffman]

@40/70 Benchmark when the avg high temp on the coldest day of the year is 44 it’s hard to dismiss.  Even on the coldest day of the year we need it to be 12 degrees below normal to get a snowstorm. 
 

Something I’ve noticed that’s very discouraging the last 5-10 years…to get cold enough we often need an epo driven pattern. The problem is those are actually cold dry patterns. Historically a lot of our snow around DC was from some form of blocking with “just cold enough” temps. Lately that’s not been working. I can list off a ton of examples of storms recently where everything was perfect in terms of track and pattern and it just ended up a few degrees too warm. It’s why I had 52” a couple years ago and DC was single digits. With my 1000 ft it was just cold enough here but some of those storms I was honestly NW of where the heavy snow zone should have been…but the best WAA and CCB precip was just cold rain until you got north of 40 degrees.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Agree…but temps are biased warmer now and that does matter more down here.  Part of the reason DC is in the midst of its least snowy 6 year period in history is the dominant unfavorable Pac base state (and there is some speculation that may be climate change related also!) but another part is that DC has wasted some pretty good H5 patterns where in the past they would manage a 32 degree snowstorm and instead got a 36 degree perfect track mid winter rain storm.  We can’t just dismiss that factor down here like New England can. 

I get that, and its baked into what I said.

[Daniel Boone]

23 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The MJO spiking in phase 5/6 during a Nina probably won't end well for us in Winter.  

Agree. That's a pretty strong indicator actually. Of course, that goes along with other driving mechanisms as well ; feeding off each other. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get that, and its baked into what I said.

I don’t think we actually disagree on the forecast much. I think we just disagree on the perception of that forecast. You’re coming at it from “it’s likely to be below avg snowfall but probably not a total shutout and it will snow some so it’s not that bad”  I’m coming at it from the perspective of “it’s been 7 years since we had a truly region wide good winter and about a year ago there was optimism this was going to be a modoki Nino (I even remember some data based predictor that was said to have a perfect hind cast score supporting a modoki Nino this winter) and now we’re staring at an 7th straight meh winter during what is already both Baltimore and DCs worst snow period in recorded history so it is THAT bad”. 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t think we actually disagree on the forecast much. I think we just disagree on the perception of that forecast. You’re coming at it from “it’s likely to be below avg snowfall but probably not a total shutout and it will snow some so it’s not that bad”  I’m coming at it from the perspective of “it’s been 7 years since we had a truly region wide good winter and about a year ago there was optimism this was going to be a modoki Nino (I even remember some data based predictor that was said to have a perfect hind cast score supporting a modoki Nino this winter) and now we’re staring at an 7th straight meh winter during what is already both Baltimore and DCs worst snow period in recorded history so it is THAT bad”. 

I know this may not be taken seriously coming from me, but...How would you compare these 6-7 years from what we went through in the 1970s? I mean the enso variations are similar (four ninas and a super nino, lol), but were still colder then?

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t think we actually disagree on the forecast much. I think we just disagree on the perception of that forecast. You’re coming at it from “it’s likely to be below avg snowfall but probably not a total shutout and it will snow some so it’s not that bad”  I’m coming at it from the perspective of “it’s been 7 years since we had a truly region wide good winter and about a year ago there was optimism this was going to be a modoki Nino (I even remember some data based predictor that was said to have a perfect hind cast score supporting a modoki Nino this winter) and now we’re staring at an 7th straight meh winter during what is already both Baltimore and DCs worst snow period in recorded history so it is THAT bad”. 

I get it....I have had four consecutive seasons of well below average snowfall. I am very confident that your poor streak will end next season.

[Eskimo Joe]

50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@40/70 Benchmark when the avg high temp on the coldest day of the year is 44 it’s hard to dismiss.  Even on the coldest day of the year we need it to be 12 degrees below normal to get a snowstorm. 
 

Something I’ve noticed that’s very discouraging the last 5-10 years…to get cold enough we often need an epo driven pattern. The problem is those are actually cold dry patterns. Historically a lot of our snow around DC was from some form of blocking with “just cold enough” temps. Lately that’s not been working. I can list off a ton of examples of storms recently where everything was perfect in terms of track and pattern and it just ended up a few degrees too warm. It’s why I had 52” a couple years ago and DC was single digits. With my 1000 ft it was just cold enough here but some of those storms I was honestly NW of where the heavy snow zone should have been…but the best WAA and CCB precip was just cold rain until you got north of 40 degrees.  

DC snow weenies when they realize you need -12 during prime climo for snow.

[WxUSAF]

-12 is a bit of an exaggeration because overnight temps are normally below freezing. Need like a -3 - -4 on the daily mean temp to have a daily mean temp below freezing.

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

-12 is a bit of an exaggeration because overnight temps are normally below freezing. Need like a -3 - -4 on the daily mean temp to have a daily mean temp below freezing.

very good point BUT....that's still pretty ugly for the COLDEST day of the year lol.  Again you're totally right but I think my point that New England can kinda dismiss surface temp plots and focus on H5 with confidence it will "work out" while we have to worry about both is valid also, even if I admittedly exaggerated my point a bit. 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

very good point BUT....that's still pretty ugly for the COLDEST day of the year lol.  Again you're totally right but I think my point that New England can kinda dismiss surface temp plots and focus on H5 with confidence it will "work out" while we have to worry about both is valid also, even if I admittedly exaggerated my point a bit. 

Yeah, I agree with your general point that a “climo” airmass is increasingly insufficient for us to get snow outside of your yard. Need to get inland or north of NYC for a climo airmass to be sufficient. 2-4F of warming is a killer when a lot of past snowstorms were 30-34F wet snow events.

[psuhoffman]

52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get it....I have had four consecutive seasons of well below average snowfall. I am very confident that your poor streak will end next season.

Yea but were digging a historic "hole" in terms of our snow drought at this point.  The more years we go without a big snowfall winter...the harder it will be to get out of this "worst stretch ever over this many years" drought we are in.

For example...I ran the numbers and DCA needs 18.6" this winter to avoid being in the least snowy 7 year period.  BWI needs 16.3" to avoid that fate.  Right now...its highly likely neither reaches those numbers.  

But what's worse is the numbers get uglier and uglier the longer this goes because it gets increasingly difficult to find such a long stretch at DCA and BWI without at least one huge snowfall season.  Pretty soon if both continue without a truly snowy winter...we will need a 30"+ winter just to get back to avoiding the WORST PERIOD EVER category for the decade.  Think about that...I'm not saying we need a HUGE snow year to get back close to "normal"....that's saying soon we will need a HUGE snow year just to avoid being the WORST PERIOD EVER!  

Until we break out of this long term snow funk our region is in my bar is that...a season that truly gets us out of "worst period ever" status.  And unfortunately...given the numbers...it's likely we are still in that category come the end of this season.  

 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, I agree with your general point that a “climo” airmass is increasingly insufficient for us to get snow outside of your yard. Need to get inland or north of NYC for a climo airmass to be sufficient. 2-4F of warming is a killer when a lot of past snowstorms were 30-34F wet snow events.

The sad truth is...if the only way for us to get snow is to get lucky with a progressive wave during those -EPO cold/dry patterns...or to pray to time up a coastal with arctic air in place.... well we're going to have the results we've had recently!  

[brooklynwx99]

we've just been in a persistent Nina base state recently after the super Nino, which is why this stretch has been so mediocre for most over the last several years

like pretty much everything in the atmosphere, it'll flip back around in time, and I'm becoming increasingly confident that next year will have the moderate Modoki Nino we've been waiting for from NYC southward

look at all of the warm water waiting to emerge near the dateline! it's also quite common to see moderate Modoki events occur after multi-year Ninas (2009-10, 2002-03, 1986-87, 1977-78)

here's a composite of all central based +ENSO events in the somewhat recent past and their Februaries:

so, yes, it's coming. just have to be patient!

I also agree with (and have been agreeing w/ for a while) @40/70 Benchmark that the start of this winter will hold some surprises. early-season blocking is favored by analogs like 2000-01, 2020-21, 2017-18, 2021-22, and even 2010-11! and yes, I know there was some bad luck here with 2010-11, but you guys would roll the dice with that 500mb pattern every single time

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea but were digging a historic "hole" in terms of our snow drought at this point.  The more years we go without a big snowfall winter...the harder it will be to get out of this "worst stretch ever over this many years" drought we are in.

For example...I ran the numbers and DCA needs 18.6" this winter to avoid being in the least snowy 7 year period.  BWI needs 16.3" to avoid that fate.  Right now...its highly likely neither reaches those numbers.  

But what's worse is the numbers get uglier and uglier the longer this goes because it gets increasingly difficult to find such a long stretch at DCA and BWI without at least one huge snowfall season.  Pretty soon if both continue without a truly snowy winter...we will need a 30"+ winter just to get back to avoiding the WORST PERIOD EVER category for the decade.  Think about that...I'm not saying we need a HUGE snow year to get back close to "normal"....that's saying soon we will need a HUGE snow year just to avoid being the WORST PERIOD EVER!  

Until we break out of this long term snow funk our region is in my bar is that...a season that truly gets us out of "worst period ever" status.  And unfortunately...given the numbers...it's likely we are still in that category come the end of this season.  

 

Yea, I mean.....I'm not trying to invalidate your sentiment or get in a "I've had it worse" pissing contest. haha I know you guys have had it worse, just saying my local area up here has been a relative hole. On a regional level, you guys are taking it on the chin.

[Terpeast]

About the 44 average high being +12 over what we need it to snow, it is not much more than 42 degrees, or +10, 30-50 some years ago.

Although 2 degrees can make a big difference in marginal events, let's remember that the delmarva coast had 3 or 4 bomb cyclone events that buried them in snow with blizzard conditions. Why weren't those 36 degree all-rain events, too?

Although I'm less excited about this upcoming winter, it's not all doom and gloom. Our time will come eventually.

[psuhoffman]

49 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

About the 44 average high being +12 over what we need it to snow, it is not much more than 42 degrees, or +10, 30-50 some years ago.

Although 2 degrees can make a big difference in marginal events, let's remember that the delmarva coast had 3 or 4 bomb cyclone events that buried them in snow with blizzard conditions. Why weren't those 36 degree all-rain events, too?

Although I'm less excited about this upcoming winter, it's not all doom and gloom. Our time will come eventually.

IMO those storms would have worked here had they been less progressive.  That would have been the example of a coastal timed up with arctic air I gave as the two ways we still seem to get snow...along with boundary waves in cold periods.  But not all of them will hit...and frankly a good number of them...when we do have a cold pattern will tend to be more progressive and miss our area.  We do better in terms of getting a flush hit from STJ waves that often occur during less cold periods.  Problem lately has been they are all just too warm, even when they do take a perfect track.  

It can still snow...and eventually we will have a big snowfall winter.  But our snowfall averages were already pretty bad...and I do think this whole "worst 5 year, 6 year, 7 year" stretch stuff is partly because of the climo changes and the fact that we are losing some snow on the margins every year.  @Maestrobjwa asked how this compares to the similar pac period in the 1970s and I think thats a great comparison.  That period was the next least snowy period for Baltimore, for example.  The reason this one was a little less snowy IMO is probably partly due to climo changes since then more so than the pattern actually being worse now then that one.  Actually looking at H5 mean patterns from that period and this one...you could argue we had a slightly better overall pattern the last 6 years than the comp period in the 1970s....but there have been several storms the last 6 years that probably would have been wet snow in the 1970's that were cold rain now.    

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd post the H5 chart....2m charts aren't as accurate and will often be biased warm.

I’m sure it is biased warm lol I just posted that to joke with you. Here are the more important new model runs with the H5 charts: 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we've just been in a persistent Nina base state recently after the super Nino, which is why this stretch has been so mediocre for most over the last several years

like pretty much everything in the atmosphere, it'll flip back around in time, and I'm becoming increasingly confident that next year will have the moderate Modoki Nino we've been waiting for from NYC southward

look at all of the warm water waiting to emerge near the dateline! it's also quite common to see moderate Modoki events occur after multi-year Ninas (2009-10, 2002-03, 1986-87, 1977-78)

here's a composite of all central based +ENSO events in the somewhat recent past and their Februaries:

so, yes, it's coming. just have to be patient!

I also agree with (and have been agreeing w/ for a while) @40/70 Benchmark that the start of this winter will hold some surprises. early-season blocking is favored by analogs like 2000-01, 2020-21, 2017-18, 2021-22, and even 2010-11! and yes, I know there was some bad luck here with 2010-11, but you guys would roll the dice with that 500mb pattern every single time

Any ideas if another super Niño would be able to flip it back? Also what happened to ever getting clippers in our area, is it something climate change related or just bad luck? 

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Any ideas if another super Niño would be able to flip it back? Also what happened to ever getting clippers in our area, is it something climate change related or just bad luck? 

I'm honestly not really that sure. there is a chance that the next Nino could be strong, but that's obviously a shot in the dark at this point. I'm sure there's a lot of research being done on the super Nino and how it changed the atmosphere

with the clippers, I think it's just some bad luck as well as a function of the pattern... the Nina composite doesn't really lend itself to clippers while the Nino one does

[gymengineer]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I also agree with (and have been agreeing w/ for a while) @40/70 Benchmark that the start of this winter will hold some surprises. early-season blocking is favored by analogs like 2000-01, 2020-21, 2017-18, 2021-22, and even 2010-11! and yes, I know there was some bad luck here with 2010-11, but you guys would roll the dice with that 500mb pattern every single time

I’m sorry if I’m misinterpreting what you’re saying here. Like, are you including January for the “start of winter?”
The total snow before January from all 5 seasons you listed as analogs is a paltry 6.0” at DCA, so a mean of 1.2” per season. That’s below 1991-2020 climo.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, gymengineer said:

I’m sorry if I’m misinterpreting what you’re saying here. Like, are you including January for the “start of winter?”
The total snow before January from all 5 seasons you listed as analogs is a paltry 6.0” at DCA, so a mean of 1.2” per season. That’s below 1991-2020 climo.

I'm including December and the start of January. yes, I know that the snowfall from those years might be paltry, but all that we can say is that the analogs point towards a 500mb pattern that should provide chances down to the Mid-Atlantic from Dec 1 - Jan 15

It's just that so much snow occurs in February, and since February looks to be a torch, you're going to get winters that end below normal

[snowman19]

And this is why watching Siberian snowcover buildup in October has basically become useless over the last 10 years #AGW….

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Previous years have absolutely nothing to do with a year that hasn’t happened yet. Gather enough data and everything will eventually happen. 
 

And one other contribution from me this afternoon is this isn’t the DC/Balt sub forum. It’s the mid Atlantic sub forum. Thanks and continue with the regularly scheduled programming.

[mattskiva]

27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Previous years have absolutely nothing to do with a year that hasn’t happened yet. Gather enough data and everything will eventually happen. 
 

And one other contribution from me this afternoon is this isn’t the DC/Balt sub forum. It’s the mid Atlantic sub forum. Thanks and continue with the regularly scheduled programming.

Yep.  There are huge differences even in the extended metro areas - DCA vs BWI vs IAD - one you get further out into Loudoun/Frederick/etc it is a different ballgame.  The truth is that it has always been hard to get consistently good snowfall years along the I-95 corridor.  They happen but are rare.  Yes this is a historically bad period but even so, other areas nearby (in this case the delmarva) have had some way above average years.  It's cyclical and the metros will eventually have a good run again, particularly the western burbs.

 

[Weather Will]

Lot of gloom and doom in here.  The latest WB GFS extended and EURO weeklies show a lot of snow building in our cold source regions through November.  I hope it verifies….can’t hurt our chances for a more normal December this year in the Mid Atlantic.

[snowman19]

 

This Niña is definitely a basin-wide event now and it’s been a very, very long time Nino region 4 has been this cold. Can’t remember the last time it was over -1.0C 

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

This Niña is definitely a basin-wide event now and it’s been a very, very long time Nino region 4 has been this cold. Can’t remember the last time it was over -1.0C 

Probably won’t snow in NYC this winter