psuhoffman Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 hour ago, mattie g said: 2016-2017 was shite down here. Get that talk outta this sub! Almost all the analogs they are throwing around were "shite" down here... and in some cases they thought they were "ok". Partly why I'm not engaging on all the discussion over specific minor pattern influencers and factors...because no matter how you slice it up the major global indicators say this will be a pretty bad snowfall winter here. There is always hope for a fluke. Maybe the effects of the volcanic eruption throw a wildcard into the mix. Maybe we get a weird non nina 1996 outcome or a lucky 10 day run like January 2000 in an otherwise dreg pattern year. But those are not the kinds of things that we would see coming and can discuss scientifically ahead of time IMO. ETA: I should clarify we can discuss those possible wildcards scientifically...we are discussing them in a productive way...I have no issue with the discussion here.... just that I don't think we have enough data for these more rare factors to be able to say ahead of time with any degree of certainty what the effects will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Actually, this kind of -NAO in October heavily correlates with a +NAO Winter. a few things remind me of 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 22 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Actually, this kind of -NAO in October heavily correlates with a +NAO Winter. a few things remind me of 2018. Some of the same forcing mechanisms that are conducive for HL blocking now become hostile and have a very different response come winter. I think there can be instances where a cold pattern in the fall, if driven by specific global factors that remain positive influences in winter can be a good thing. But I worry that some of the tropical forcing helping now would be detrimental come winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 The MJO spiking in phase 5/6 during a Nina probably won't end well for us in Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some of the same forcing mechanisms that are conducive for HL blocking now become hostile and have a very different response come winter. I think there can be instances where a cold pattern in the fall, if driven by specific global factors that remain positive influences in winter can be a good thing. But I worry that some of the tropical forcing helping now would be detrimental come winter. I share the same concerns. Best we're going to do is slightly below average snowfall and we get there with a storm that "breaks the rules" or threads the needle. We probably end up with even less. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 A lot of very bad info going around Twitter right now saying the PDO is positive…totally false. It is actually strongly negative and here’s why: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some of the same forcing mechanisms that are conducive for HL blocking now become hostile and have a very different response come winter. I think there can be instances where a cold pattern in the fall, if driven by specific global factors that remain positive influences in winter can be a good thing. But I worry that some of the tropical forcing helping now would be detrimental come winter. Excellent post, I mentioned this a few days ago. The tropical convective forcing has been in the eastern IO and maritime continent this entire fall so far….really since August. Very consistent convection in that region. Right now it is producing the +PNA pattern, once the wavelengths and feedbacks change going into winter, if the main forcing stays there, we are in serious trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Some of the same forcing mechanisms that are conducive for HL blocking now become hostile and have a very different response come winter. I think there can be instances where a cold pattern in the fall, if driven by specific global factors that remain positive influences in winter can be a good thing. But I worry that some of the tropical forcing helping now would be detrimental come winter. We ware shifting pattern in the Southern Hemisphere too to colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 28 minutes ago, snowman19 said: A lot of very bad info going around Twitter right now saying the PDO is positive…totally false. It is actually strongly negative and here’s why: Good tweet. But I do wonder about the trend. It was -2 not too long ago, and now it is only -1. Maybe it’s just a blip and will revert back, or maybe it continues toward neutral. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Never done a 4th year La Nina. 3rd year Nina's are colder and snowier, for uncoincidental reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 This one was warmer though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Some of the same forcing mechanisms that are conducive for HL blocking now become hostile and have a very different response come winter. I think there can be instances where a cold pattern in the fall, if driven by specific global factors that remain positive influences in winter can be a good thing. But I worry that some of the tropical forcing helping now would be detrimental come winter. This is why la nina is usually front loaded. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Actually, this kind of -NAO in October heavily correlates with a +NAO Winter. a few things remind me of 2018. I remember the pattern during the fall of 2006 was awesome, then you came out with your infamous "warmest winter on record" thread, and sure enough, it went to shit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 4 hours ago, mattie g said: Looks like the Farmer's Almanac is all in on a -NAO. That's a good place to start. I'll take any good news I can get. Cosgrove is all in on a -AO/NAO. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I remember the pattern during the fall of 2006 was awesome, then you came out with your infamous "warmest winter on record" thread, and sure enough, it went to shit. Yeah, I've been serious the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Cosgrove is all in on a -AO/NAO. If we have -NAO, it will be -PNA +NAO is +PNA/-EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 10-15 is a good analog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Some of the same forcing mechanisms that are conducive for HL blocking now become hostile and have a very different response come winter. I think there can be instances where a cold pattern in the fall, if driven by specific global factors that remain positive influences in winter can be a good thing. But I worry that some of the tropical forcing helping now would be detrimental come winter. But just because the forcing has set up in a certain place right now doesn't necessarily mean it will remain in the same place for the next five months...or does it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 watch out for this over the NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 hour ago, mattie g said: But just because the forcing has set up in a certain place right now doesn't necessarily mean it will remain in the same place for the next five months...or does it? That’s the million dollar question right there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Terpeast said: That’s the million dollar question right there That and what are the Power Ball numbers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 2 hours ago, mattie g said: But just because the forcing has set up in a certain place right now doesn't necessarily mean it will remain in the same place for the next five months...or does it? No it doesn’t. But the forcing I’m talking about is correlated to some very persistent larger scale patterns that have been dominant in the pacific for a very long time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Maybe we need a medium/long range thread again, but it seems that the +PNA/-NAO pattern will probably continue to be durable for awhile, despite a period of -PNA coming after next week. This discourages me as I have a hard time imagining that continuing to hold into DJF. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: Excellent post, I mentioned this a few days ago. The tropical convective forcing has been in the eastern IO and maritime continent this entire fall so far….really since August. Very consistent convection in that region. Right now it is producing the +PNA pattern, once the wavelengths and feedbacks change going into winter, if the main forcing stays there, we are in serious trouble Hard to figure why you are a daily post limited member with all the quality posts parroting twitter nerds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 3 hours ago, mattie g said: But just because the forcing has set up in a certain place right now doesn't necessarily mean it will remain in the same place for the next five months...or does it? Wait, I know this one. If the forcing is where we want it, it won't last. If the forcing is not where we want it, it is totally locked in. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 54 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Wait, I know this one. If the forcing is where we want it, it won't last. If the forcing is not where we want it, it is totally locked in. And it makes our sub cold in the spring and fall, but not winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Hard to figure why you are a daily post limited member with all the quality posts parroting twitter nerds. Triggered lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 On 10/11/2022 at 7:48 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: True. Though I think 2010-2011 was decent down there, no? You are probably referring to 2009-2010. That winter we had THREE Blizzards. I remember it because dad and I were trying so hard to come home from Hollywood Casino during one of the snowstorms, we had to turn back because the damn clouds and snow made it near impossible to drive. We had to turn back and I won a thousand dollars and change on the slots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Jebman said: You are probably referring to 2009-2010. That winter we had THREE Blizzards. I remember it because dad and I were trying so hard to come home from Hollywood Casino during one of the snowstorms, we had to turn back because the damn clouds and snow made it near impossible to drive. We had to turn back and I won a thousand dollars and change on the slots. Nah, I know that was the holy grail there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Maybe we need a medium/long range thread again, but it seems that the +PNA/-NAO pattern will probably continue to be durable for awhile, despite a period of -PNA coming after next week. This discourages me as I have a hard time imagining that continuing to hold into DJF. I think these were next up in @snowman19's queue of tweets to quote...lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now