Winter 2022-23

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, you are correct, the models have been wanting to tank the PNA to no avail the last 2 months, however, this time, it actually has support in the global circulation to do so. 

 

Neg NAO /RNA is a nice pattern

[WxUSAF]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Neg NAO /RNA is a nice pattern

That’s rarely true down here.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s rarely true down here.

If I may, what usually happens when you have those two together? Blocking but not enough cold, or?

[WxUSAF]

18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If I may, what usually happens when you have those two together? Blocking but not enough cold, or?

With a -PNA, storms will typically cut west of us.  The -NAO can force storms to redevelop on the coast after cutting west, which can create a Miller B bonanza for SNE while we smoke cirrus.  A -PNA/-NAO combo can be very lucrative for NYC and points north.  Much harder to get it to work for us. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

With a -PNA, storms will typically cut west of us.  The -NAO can force storms to redevelop on the coast after cutting west, which can create a Miller B bonanza for SNE while we smoke cirrus.  A -PNA/-NAO combo can be very lucrative for NYC and points north.  Much harder to get it to work for us. 

It can work well for parts of the region. Many times here those storms will lay down a few inches of snow, glaze it with sleet and freezing rain, then dry slot us while it jumps. 
 

I’ll take anything over dry during the winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s rarely true down here.

 

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

With a -PNA, storms will typically cut west of us.  The -NAO can force storms to redevelop on the coast after cutting west, which can create a Miller B bonanza for SNE while we smoke cirrus.  A -PNA/-NAO combo can be very lucrative for NYC and points north.  Much harder to get it to work for us. 

True. Though I think 2010-2011 was decent down there, no?

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

True. Though I think 2010-2011 was decent down there, no?

Not that great. One decent snowstorm in Jan, plus a couple of nickel and dimers here and there. IAD finished with 12” on the season. 

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

True. Though I think 2010-2011 was decent down there, no?

Below normal temps and snow. Nickel and dimed to death with one good event that was a 33F paste bomb.

[snowman19]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Neg NAO /RNA is a nice pattern

The projected RNA/-PNA is probably real this time, gaining more support 

 

[WxUSAF]

Good. Let’s have a solid 6 week period of -PNA to charge up the cold air source region and then get a pattern flip again in mid December.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Good. Let’s have a solid 6 week period of -PNA to charge up the cold air source region and then get a pattern flip again in mid December.

☝️

[thunderbolt]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The projected RNA/-PNA is probably real this time, gaining more support 

 

And 

[mattie g]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Good. Let’s have a solid 6 week period of -PNA to charge up the cold air source region and then get a pattern flip again in mid December.

Exactly what I was going to say.

Give me the fattest mother of all f*cking torches from November 1-December 15 and then have the pattern flip. If that means six weeks of that flipped pattern with it again going warm to end the winter, then that's 100% fine with me.

The funny thing about that Twatter re-post is that the PNA is rebounding back towards positive territory by the end of October. I honestly hope it remains negative for weeks...

[midatlanticweather]

Some stats and maps to show it. Boooooo - But not a surprise!

 

[snowman19]

@40/70 BenchmarkDid you look at 2016-2017? Yes, I know it was coming off the super El Nino, this Niña is much stronger and the current -PDO, high solar flux/geomag, Atlantic ACE and volcanic stratosphere don’t match up, however, it was strong -IOD, +QBO and unfavorable Atlantic SSTs for -NAO and you also have this: 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 BenchmarkDid you look at 2016-2017? Yes, I know it was coming off the super El Nino, this Niña is much stronger and the current -PDO, high solar flux/geomag, Atlantic ACE and volcanic stratosphere don’t match up, however, it was strong -IOD, +QBO and unfavorable Atlantic SSTs for -NAO and you also have this: 

 

I have that as an analog...it was also a very dry summer on the NE.

[WEATHER53]

0 to -1 F for season and 14-18” DC is a B winter.

[WEATHER53]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have that as an analog...it was also a very dry summer on the NE.

Have you written anything up?

[WEATHER53]

On 10/11/2022 at 6:04 PM, WxUSAF said:

With a -PNA, storms will typically cut west of us.  The -NAO can force storms to redevelop on the coast after cutting west, which can create a Miller B bonanza for SNE while we smoke cirrus.  A -PNA/-NAO combo can be very lucrative for NYC and points north.  Much harder to get it to work for us. 

Even northeast Md gets a little to a lot 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Have you written anything up?

No. I have my analog composites, but I'll begin writing it up before month's end.

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have that as an analog...it was also a very dry summer on the NE.

That was the winter with the crazy 24+ hour sleet storm. They actually had to plow it in my area. Never seen sleet accumulate like that in my life, had to be 4-5 inches worth all together

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That was the winter with the crazy 24+ hour sleet storm. They actually had to plow it in my area. Never seen sleet accumulate like that in my life, had to be 4-5 inches worth all together

I have it as one of my more heavily weighted temp analogs.

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have it as one of my more heavily weighted temp analogs.

The +NAO/+AO actually helped that winter or a few of the storms that hit would have been OTS and south. The models kept severely underestimating the SE ridge/WAR and were showing misses then in the last day or two the NAM was the 1st to pickup on the jog back west and north from the SE ridge/WAR push 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The +NAO/+AO actually helped that winter or a few of the storms that hit would have been OTS and south. The models kept severely underestimating the SE ridge/WAR and were showing misses then in the last day or two the NAM was the 1st to pickup on the jog back west and north from the SE ridge/WAR push 

I had about normal snow that season, though it was rather mild. It was a weaker la nina and more of a modoki.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Believe it or not, after +PNA Dec, we have more of a High pressure correlation in the north Pacific ocean for Jan and Feb

[mattie g]

2016-2017 was shite down here. Get that talk outta this sub!

[George BM]

10 minutes ago, mattie g said:

2016-2017 was shite down here. Get that talk outta this sub!

That winter and 2020/21 had a significant deficit of cold air on our side of the globe.

[Scraff]

I can’t believe nobody is talking about this forecast. Sign me the F up! 

[mattie g]

Looks like the Farmer's Almanac is all in on a -NAO. That's a good place to start. 

I'll take any good news I can get.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

2016-2017 was shite down here. Get that talk outta this sub!

Almost all the analogs they are throwing around were "shite" down here... and in some cases they thought they were "ok".  Partly why I'm not engaging on all the discussion over specific minor pattern influencers and factors...because no matter how you slice it up the major global indicators say this will be a pretty bad snowfall winter here.  There is always hope for a fluke.  Maybe the effects of the volcanic eruption throw a wildcard into the mix.  Maybe we get a weird non nina 1996 outcome or a lucky 10 day run like January 2000 in an otherwise dreg pattern year.  But those are not the kinds of things that we would see coming and can discuss scientifically ahead of time IMO.  

ETA:  I should clarify we can discuss those possible wildcards scientifically...we are discussing them in a productive way...I have no issue with the discussion here.... just that I don't think we have enough data for these more rare factors to be able to say ahead of time with any degree of certainty what the effects will be.