Winter 2022-23

[mattie g]

22 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

NYC Subforum a few well known predictors.  I don't want to call people out by name.  The original forecast was for a below average snowfall winter but it turned on a dime after Christmas here.

OK...sounded like you were referring to people in here.

We're generally a pretty dour bunch when it comes to winter, so it would have surprised me if someone from here would think a brutal winter would be a viable analog for us.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

On 9/22/2022 at 7:30 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

For real?

Never know with that guy...

Yeah, where's his 2002-03 and 2009-10 analogue in addition to those?  And calls for vodka cold, Snowmageddon, Blizzard of 2016, 1983, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria!!  He must be slipping. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

On 9/22/2022 at 12:04 PM, LibertyBell said:

His forecast for 2001-02 was epically bad.  That's what made me cancel my subscription.

 

Oh man, I remember that!  First year I was in this area (DC metro).  That's where I first heard the "vodka cold" BS!!  He kept on keeping on with that ("it's just around the corner in 2 weeks!!), and it never came about even in the face of evidence.  I think that's when I first noticed his statistical manipulation to "sound better" (diplomatic phrase for...bulls**t!), as in "March was the coldest month of the winter!!! (small print:  relative to averages!)."  Yeah let's compare apples and leprechauns!

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Oh man, I remember that!  First year I was in this area (DC metro).  That's where I first heard the "vodka cold" BS!!  He kept on keeping on with that ("it's just around the corner in 2 weeks!!), and it never came about even in the face of evidence.  I think that's when I first noticed his statistical manipulation to "sound better" (diplomatic phrase for...bulls**t!), as in "March was the coldest month of the winter!!! (small print:  relative to averages!)."  Yeah let's compare apples and leprechauns!

That "it's just around the corner" is what made me the angriest.  It would have been okay if he just admitted he was wrong and cut his losses but NO he couldn't do that!  And then he said that period of dry cold in January was a "victory" for him when the only people who saw snow lived in the Carolinas....ugh, horrible memories.

2002-03 made up for ALL of that though!  Best part was I didn't have a subscription to him by then so I could enjoy it without having to listen to him brag.  Wright Weather was awesome that winter-- my first winter on a weather board!

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, mattie g said:

OK...sounded like you were referring to people in here.

We're generally a pretty dour bunch when it comes to winter, so it would have surprised me if someone from here would think a brutal winter would be a viable analog for us.

Hey it's understandable.  Most winters suck where I live too, we're conditioned to them lol.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

13 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Oh man, I remember that!  First year I was in this area (DC metro).  That's where I first heard the "vodka cold" BS!!  He kept on keeping on with that ("it's just around the corner in 2 weeks!!), and it never came about even in the face of evidence.  I think that's when I first noticed his statistical manipulation to "sound better" (diplomatic phrase for...bulls**t!), as in "March was the coldest month of the winter!!! (small print:  relative to averages!)."  Yeah let's compare apples and leprechauns!

Sad thing is, for awhile (as I recall, could be wrong) that winter 2001-02 actually for a short while looked like it could be decent.  But I think as we went through January, it was clear it was a no-go.  I also recall some of the longer range models gave some false hope but then backed way off on that.  And of course JB pounded that even as it was clear that wasn't going to happen.

I'll admit the thing that ticked me off most was the whole "such-and-such month was the coldest...relative to averages!!"  That makes no sense, comparing January to March (which I swear he did, or something similar) or some such thing.  Hell, by that reasoning you could call a slightly cooler than normal July as being COLDER than JANUARY (relative to averages, in small print!!!)...OMG!!!!  I'm exaggerating a bit, but you get the idea.

[snowman19]

On 9/23/2022 at 6:36 PM, Always in Zugzwang said:

Sad thing is, for awhile (as I recall, could be wrong) that winter 2001-02 actually for a short while looked like it could be decent.  But I think as we went through January, it was clear it was a no-go.  I also recall some of the longer range models gave some false hope but then backed way off on that.  And of course JB pounded that even as it was clear that wasn't going to happen.

I'll admit the thing that ticked me off most was the whole "such-and-such month was the coldest...relative to averages!!"  That makes no sense, comparing January to March (which I swear he did, or something similar) or some such thing.  Hell, by that reasoning you could call a slightly cooler than normal July as being COLDER than JANUARY (relative to averages, in small print!!!)...OMG!!!!  I'm exaggerating a bit, but you get the idea.

01-02 was “ruined” by a high solar flux from September through the end of March. The UV from the high solar flux warmed the low and middle latitudes and greatly shrunk the SPV. It strengthened the westerlies and there was screaming zonal and semi-zonal flow the entire winter

[snowman19]

On 9/23/2022 at 6:36 PM, Always in Zugzwang said:

Sad thing is, for awhile (as I recall, could be wrong) that winter 2001-02 actually for a short while looked like it could be decent.  But I think as we went through January, it was clear it was a no-go.  I also recall some of the longer range models gave some false hope but then backed way off on that.  And of course JB pounded that even as it was clear that wasn't going to happen.

I'll admit the thing that ticked me off most was the whole "such-and-such month was the coldest...relative to averages!!"  That makes no sense, comparing January to March (which I swear he did, or something similar) or some such thing.  Hell, by that reasoning you could call a slightly cooler than normal July as being COLDER than JANUARY (relative to averages, in small print!!!)...OMG!!!!  I'm exaggerating a bit, but you get the idea.

If there wasn’t the very high solar flux that winter, on paper, that winter probably would have been a good one for the east coast. He made himself look like a fool with the famous “vodka cold” comment and the instance that it was coming until he finally admitted that it was a lost cause come mid-February of 2002

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If there wasn’t the very high solar flux that winter, on paper, that winter probably would have been a good one for the east coast. He made himself look like a fool with the famous “vodka cold” comment and the instance that it was coming until he finally admitted that it was a lost cause come mid-February of 2002

Yeah, solar flux did appear to be a major culprit. Also , the late season Hurricane that pumped very warm air into the high latts. had an effect as I recall. 

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, solar flux did appear to be a major culprit. Also , the late season Hurricane that pumped very warm air into the high latts. had an effect as I recall. 

Keep an eye on what is going on now, we are in the midst of very high solar activity: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2022/08/02/the-sun-is-now-more-active-than-nasa-predicted-it-could-be-in-its-strongest-cycle-since-records-began/amp/

[snowman19]

On 9/22/2022 at 9:40 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/enso-continues-to-stagnate-as-winter.html

Missed this, interesting write up. I think the strong -IOD is influencing the MJO’s behavior. Also agree about more Niña strengthening over the course of the fall

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Missed this, interesting write up. I think the strong -IOD is influencing the MJO’s behavior. Also agree about more Niña strengthening over the course of the fall

Yea, it has to intensify some, or else it peaks as weak and I do think it sneaks into moderate territory.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it has to intensify some, or else it peaks as weak and I do think it sneaks into moderate territory.

Agreed and I think if there are some curveballs this winter it won’t be the Niña/QBO/IOD/PDO/MJO/Atlantic SSTs/ACE it will be Hunga Tonga or the high solar activity or both 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Agreed and I think if there are some curveballs this winter it won’t be the Niña/QBO/IOD/PDO/MJO/Atlantic SSTs/ACE it will be Hunga Tonga or the high solar activity or both 

I'm not sure Hunga Tonga  doesn't trend the polar strat warmer in the N HEM.

[Terpeast]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure Hunga Tonga  doesn't trend the polar strat warmer in the N HEM.

I’m not sure that it does. There are a lot of “if”s to make that happen. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’m not sure that it does. There are a lot of “if”s to make that happen. 

That's the point; nobody is sure of anything with respect to the eruption, aside from its influence in the  S HEM.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Too many folks are approaching this like its a slam dunk, PV on roids season.

[Terpeast]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Too many folks are approaching this like its a slam dunk, PV on roids season.

I'm not, but I'm not all enthusiastic about it either.

We're about to witness a global experiment on what happens when we inject a butt ton of vapor (a strong greenhouse gas) directly into the polar stratosphere. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I'm not, but I'm not all enthusiastic about it either.

We're about to witness a global experiment on what happens when we inject a butt ton of vapor (a strong greenhouse gas) directly into the polar stratosphere. 

Yea, nobody knows, really.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I'm not, but I'm not all enthusiastic about it either.

We're about to witness a global experiment on what happens when we inject a butt ton of vapor (a strong greenhouse gas) directly into the polar stratosphere. 

One thing is for sure, with the obscene amount of water vapor that got ejected into the stratosphere it is definitely going to do “something” very significant. What exactly that something is….I guess we will see this winter 

[FPizz]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

One thing is for sure, with the obscene amount of water vapor that got ejected into the stratosphere it is definitely going to do “something” very significant. What exactly that something is….I guess we will see this winter 

What did it do this summer, or was that too soon?

[snowman19]

51 minutes ago, FPizz said:

What did it do this summer, or was that too soon?

We have to let the northern hemisphere SPV get established through this winter to see what effects it has

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Too many folks are approaching this like its a slam dunk, PV on roids season.

No one can say either way what effects it will have on the stratosphere because this (Hunga Tonga) has never happened before in history. We don’t know for sure what it’s going to do. The thing I would be most concerned about is the current high solar flux, if it was to continue through winter, we may have a problem 

[Terpeast]

I liked this writeup about Hunga Tonga and potential effects on this winter.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

[MillvilleWx]

8 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I liked this writeup about Hunga Tonga and potential effects on this winter.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

Excellent write-up @Terpeast

I'll be following along this winter on this cause-effect regime possibility 

[snowman19]

14 hours ago, snowman19 said:

No one can say either way what effects it will have on the stratosphere because this (Hunga Tonga) has never happened before in history. We don’t know for sure what it’s going to do. The thing I would be most concerned about is the current high solar flux, if it was to continue through winter, we may have a problem 

I.E.: 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I liked this writeup about Hunga Tonga and potential effects on this winter.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

Yea, this is what I was referring to when I suggested that the eruption could lead to a warmer SH strat this winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, snowman19 said:

No one can say either way what effects it will have on the stratosphere because this (Hunga Tonga) has never happened before in history. We don’t know for sure what it’s going to do. The thing I would be most concerned about is the current high solar flux, if it was to continue through winter, we may have a problem 

High solar flux isn't always a death knell for winter...2013-2014 was high solar. There are just so many factors.....

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

High solar flux isn't always a death knell for winter...2013-2014 was high solar. There are just so many factors.....

But if every single teleconnection isn't in its prime state or if the sun isn't dead or if ACE is high or if basically not everything is perfect then we're screwed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

But if every single teleconnection isn't in its prime state or if the sun isn't dead or if ACE is high or if basically not everything is perfect then we're screwed.

Well, 1995-1996 was a la nina, 2009-2010 was a strong el nino.....