StormchaserChuck! Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 +10QBO for May https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: +10QBO for May https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index Looks like an NAO-west sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: I like the general signal -PDO/-NAO I was just saying to someone last week that he have had a slew of 1950s like winters over the course of the past several years, and we may be heading into a stretch more akin to the 1960s moving forward. That would be it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 1940s into 1950s is the best match to now long cycle-wise. I really like the stretch actually from 1948-1951 as a pretty good matching event sequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was just saying to someone last week that he have had a slew of 1950s like winters over the course of the past several years, and we may be heading into a stretch more akin to the 1960s moving forward. That would be it. That's not weenism is it? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 57 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's not weenism is it? Lol Highly anecdotal, but I'm not just saying it because I like snow....also, understand that the period would still be much milder than the 60s due to climate change. Just mean more -PDO/NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 Alright guys we just need this pattern to hold for *opens calculator* for 13,888 more hours, the big ones are sniffed out early right? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 14 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: Alright guys we just need this pattern to hold for *opens calculator* for 13,888 more hours, the big ones are sniffed out early right? Wonder how much money it costs to run that model that far out. If it is more than $1 then it is ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Wonder how much money it costs to run that model that far out. If it is more than $1 then it is ridiculous Maybe it’s just a random pattern generator disguised as a climate model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 On 6/30/2022 at 8:56 AM, SnowenOutThere said: Maybe it’s just a random pattern generator disguised as a climate model. Whatever it is, I can assure you that it isn’t free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 I wonder how much it costs the Canadians to run the CanSIPS? New edition implies a 'close the shades' type winter. Has the broad, flat Pacific ridge south of the Aleutians and +AO/NAO for the entire winter. Lucky for us the CFS is not as bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Ain't right to have to suffer this many la ninas...as far as I'm concerned, it's all shut the dang blinds, smh I'm not getting exhausted by pointless tracking again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ain't right to have to suffer this many la ninas...as far as I'm concerned, it's all shut the dang blinds, smh I'm not getting exhausted by pointless tracking again. It's a bit early for this lol. Chill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's a bit early for this lol. Chill. No it ain't! La nina is still goin' and I'm hearing expectations of it to restrengthen in August/September. What am I missing here? Btw I'll have exhausted my angst before this winter...and if/when this winter looks just like last year I'll just be kinda checked out. Probably still a bit frustrated but definitely not checkin' anything on the Zs'. I'm emotionally exhausted looking for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 50 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: No it ain't! La nina is still goin' and I'm hearing expectations of it to restrengthen in August/September. What am I missing here? Btw I'll have exhausted my angst before this winter...and if/when this winter looks just like last year I'll just be kinda checked out. Probably still a bit frustrated but definitely not checkin' anything on the Zs'. I'm emotionally exhausted looking for snow. It's going to be pretty modest next winter...its not a "game over" proposition. We just had a weak el nino a few years ago act more like an el nino...it can go both ways. That said, I wouldn't expect a monster mid atl snow season. Can't necessarily say the same for 2023-2024. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: No it ain't! La nina is still goin' and I'm hearing expectations of it to restrengthen in August/September. What am I missing here? Btw I'll have exhausted my angst before this winter...and if/when this winter looks just like last year I'll just be kinda checked out. Probably still a bit frustrated but definitely not checkin' anything on the Zs'. I'm emotionally exhausted looking for snow. from CPC/NCEP- In summary, though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance.. Most likely we are looking at a weak Nina for Fall/early Winter, trending neutral towards early 2023. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Yeah, it's been record +SOI. They show it's going to last next 4 weeks, until Aug 1 just as strong. N. Hemisphere is disconnected right now though. I think CanSHIPS shows what it is in stability. After following weather for so long and doing research, somethings start to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 It’s over 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 14 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s over Usual suspects on Ignore. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 Still like the idea of the SW High pressure spilling NE. We are entering +10 year range of that UM/GL's cold anomaly to be a mathematical anomaly-exponentially if it continues. mathematics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 We'll do it something like 5/7 or 5/8 of next Winter's, unless there is volcano explosion or something. +10-year signal. lalala 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 WB EURO seasonal for January…not showing torch December. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 Will has the same relationship with Weather Bell as I have with DraftKings 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 12 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB EURO seasonal for January…not showing torch December. There are some signs that this la nina may try to go more central based than last year's, which was heavily eastern biased. That would likely mean a pretty good likelihood of a better December and worse mid season relative to last year. Caveat being that la nina should also be less prominent, which inherently makes ENSO more of a wildcard. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 Southern sliders in a la Nina? Sign me up. How does Garrett county do during la Ninas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 hey guys, I would have to agree that either the 2023/24 or 2024/25 winter will end up a big one down here, as well as much of the EC three consecutive -ENSO events are quite rare. however, a weak/moderate +ENSO returns either one or two years afterwards, and this winter is usually anomalously snowy some examples include: 2014/15, 2002/03, 1986/87, 1977/78, and 1957/58 here is a composite of these winters and their Februaries: the average snowfall of these winters in Baltimore is 39.9" (!!!) so, yeah, it's coming. just have to be patient! 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: hey guys, I would have to agree that either the 2023/24 or 2024/25 winter will end up a big one down here, as well as much of the EC three consecutive -ENSO events are quite rare. however, a weak/moderate +ENSO returns either one or two years afterwards, and this winter is usually anomalously snowy some examples include: 2014/15, 2002/03, 1986/87, 1977/78, and 1957/58 here is a composite of these winters and their Februaries: the average snowfall of these winters in Baltimore is 39.9" (!!!) so, yeah, it's coming. just have to be patient! I ain't got time to bleed, or wait til February snows. What's it take for a Garrett county December to remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 1 minute ago, IronTy said: I ain't got time to bleed, or wait til February snows. What's it take for a Garrett county December to remember? Garrett county is good, every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 20 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Garrett county is good, every year. I'm trying to decide which snowblower to buy. So far I'm thinking a tracked Honda snowblower to handle the big snows. Also bought a wood stove for our tent. It's gonna be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 It's going to be a -PNA January and -PNA February, so here's a starting point (v reverse), I think we'll go reverse-this in the UM/eastern Rockies area because of ENSO subsurface warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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