Winter 2022-23

[StormchaserChuck!]

[StormchaserChuck!]

-EPO October guaranteed

 

[snowman19]

51 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

-EPO October guaranteed

 

There are no guarantees in weather

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

That's just confirming that this season had a high starting point, which we already know...its not necessarily predictive, as he also said. This is why the statistical guidance is also a bit more aggressive than the dynamical.

 But 1.5 weekly reading would get the ONI to about solid moderate. I think that is the ceiling.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I think we'll do a combination of 99-00 and 00-01.

 

El Nino is really nothing to sneeze at

Yea, probably somewhere in between.

[snowman19]

On 9/11/2022 at 12:26 PM, Terpeast said:

Central pac ssts cooling just south of the aleutians, slight warming trend off the west coast. Still a ways off from a +pdo (sig warming further west), but if trend holds, the pac may not be so hostile this winter. 
 

from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Question is, is this the beginning of an actual full scale PDO shift despite the -ENSO, or just a temporary, transient reflection of the current pattern? If it is still doing this in November, then something may be going on. I believe last year, the big PDO drop didn’t happen until we were into October and November. Definitely something to watch

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Question is, is this the beginning of an actual full scale PDO shift despite the -ENSO, or just a temporary, transient reflection of the current pattern? If it is still doing this in November, then something may be going on. I believe last year, the big PDO drop didn’t happen until we were into October and November. Definitely something to watch

That is a great point, and why I feel as though some circles place too much emphasis on SST patterns. The reality is that its usually a combination. I do think this does evince some sort of shift taking place, which was not the case last season.

MEI is finally beginning to rise precipitously, which isn't a shock because it basically had to.

MEI.v2: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

I would expect that general trend to continue.

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is a great point, and why I feel as though some circles place too much emphasis on SST patterns. The reality is that its usually a combination. I do think this does evince some sort of shift taking place, which was not the case last season.

MEI is finally beginning to rise precipitously, which isn't a shock because it basically had to.

MEI.v2: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

I would expect that general trend to continue.

The studies I’ve read have shown that the overwhelming majority of the time ENSO forces the PDO state, most notably in the fall. It is very rare to have an “out of sync” ENSO/PDO (i.e. Niña/+PDO or Nino/-PDO), that’s why 95-96 was such a rare breed. The PDO is still negative right now. Given the propensity for strong -PDO the last few years and that we have a healthy Niña, my guess is that we see a significant PDO drop by late November. We will see though 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Question is, is this the beginning of an actual full scale PDO shift despite the -ENSO, or just a temporary, transient reflection of the current pattern? If it is still doing this in November, then something may be going on. I believe last year, the big PDO drop didn’t happen until we were into October and November. Definitely something to watch

Like you said, we’ll get our answer by Nov.

pdo is still negative atm

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The studies I’ve read have shown that the overwhelming majority of the time ENSO forces the PDO state, most notably in the fall. It is very rare to have an “out of sync” ENSO/PDO (i.e. Niña/+PDO or Nino/-PDO), that’s why 95-96 was such a rare breed. The PDO is still negative right now. Given the propensity for strong -PDO the last few years and that we have a healthy Niña, my guess is that we see a significant PDO drop by late November. We will see though 

PDO will be negative this winter...bigger question is PNA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The decadal oscillations aren't very difficult to predict...however, the devil is in the details concerning the behavior of their more stochastic cousins.

[IUsedToHateCold]

Oscillations aside, the tonga eruption is going to be the x-factor in this year’s prediction. Given this, I would predict the weather will likely be more abnormal than usual in either a good or bad way for our subforum. It’s less likely to trend closer to the average, IMO.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Oscillations aside, the tonga eruption is going to be the x-factor in this year’s prediction. Given this, I would predict the weather will likely be more abnormal than usual in either a good or bad way for our subforum. It’s less likely to trend closer to the average, IMO.

I am curious to see what if anything this does. Like you said, it could be good or bad...but will be interesting to watch nonetheless. I've been reading that the fact that it's water vapor and not ash is making it a bit of an unknown.

[Maestrobjwa]

I'm gonna retract some of what I've said about ninas...weather is not homogenous. Yes enso has tendencies that tend to repeat themselves, but there are no absolutes in weather. Who knows, could pull a reverse and luck into something this winter but not next for all I know. I'm saying this in case something anomalous happens this winter...I'm kinda okay with whatever happens now, tbh. I'm fortunate to have seen what I have when others have not! Gonna just take it as it comes...I do hope I haven't messed up so badly that any genuine questions aren't colored with my history...but I suppose that'll take some time to scrub away.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm gonna retract some of what I've said about ninas...weather is not homogenous. Yes enso has tendencies that tend to repeat themselves, but there are no absolutes in weather. Who knows, could pull a reverse and luck into something this winter but not next for all I know. I'm saying this in case something anomalous happens this winter...I'm kinda okay with whatever happens now, tbh. I'm fortunate to have seen what I have when others have not! Gonna just take it as it comes...I do hope I haven't messed up so badly that any genuine questions aren't colored with my history...but I suppose that'll take some time to scrub away.

Between the atmosphere transitioning out of cold ENSO, and the eruption, I think some these preconceived notions about the ensuing winter will be really challenged. 

[Maestrobjwa]

17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Between the atmosphere transitioning out of cold ENSO, and the eruption, I think some these preconceived notions about the ensuing winter will be really challenged. 

Yep--hence my retraction, lol And the fact that the tropical season has looked un-nina like to this point is another reason for at least a little skepticism. Maybe something maybe nothing...

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yep--hence my retraction, lol And the fact that the tropical season has looked un-nina like to this point is another reason for skepticism. Maybe something maybe nothing...

Low ACE/cold ENSO, since 1950....not bad:

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Low ACE/cold ENSO, since 1950....not bad:

If anything, a bit on an active signal along the east coast...

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Low ACE/cold ENSO, since 1950....not bad:

People are obsessed with seeing a high Atlantic ACE season because of 95-96. That winter was historic for more than that, you had a strongly +PDO/+PMM….extremely rare in a Niña, it was a weak east-based Niña and it was coming off an El Niño the winter before so it had the active STJ. You also had a classic Atlantic “tripole” look in the SSTAs

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yep--hence my retraction, lol And the fact that the tropical season has looked un-nina like to this point is another reason for at least a little skepticism. Maybe something maybe nothing...

So you will be tracking snow threats this winter then? Unless ofc we get a complete crapper and there aren't any. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

So you will be tracking snow threats this winter then? Unless ofc we get a complete crapper and there aren't any. 

Well, depends on how things look large-scale. Now if we get to mid Dec/Jan and the large-scale pattern still looks like a typical nina, then NO--I ain't gonna be payin' too much attention, lol BUT...the potential of a fading nina and and the unknown effect (if any) of the Tunga eruption are enough for me to keep one half an eye open ...at least until we get closer. Still not optimistic, but a little curious.

[Jebman]

Winter is drawin closer, better get stocked on firewood, ice melter, salt, Jebman Shovels, snowblowers. It's gonna be a BAD one, tons of wind driven snow and extreme cold!

[nj2va]

I’m feeling bullish on an above average year for the mountains.  The analogs getting thrown around were mostly AN.  It would be great for the ski resorts after last year’s disastrous December/start to the winter.  

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, nj2va said:

I’m feeling bullish on an above average year for the mountains.  The analogs getting thrown around were mostly AN.  It would be great for the ski resorts after last year’s disastrous December/start to the winter.  

The issue out there (with skiing) are the warmer periods when the pattern goes to crap more than not ending up with normal/above normal snowfall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Low ACE/cold ENSO, since 1950....not bad:

 

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If anything, a bit on an active signal along the east coast...

[nj2va]

5 hours ago, CAPE said:

The issue out there (with skiing) are the warmer periods when the pattern goes to crap more than not ending up with normal/above normal snowfall.

Yeah agree or the dreaded cutter that dumps 3" of rain then flips back to cold/snowy.  Two winters ago, there was a stretch of Christmas week through late February (ish) of solid snow on the ground.  They can handle periods where the pattern flips to unfavorable but it can't last for weeks on end like it did last December which forced Wisp to eventually close the week between Christmas and New Years.  

[snowman19]

 

[Terpeast]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

2 are -nao

1 (dwdd) is extreme +nao/+ao

And 5 showing a neutral to weak +nao. (that’s where I see consensus)

 

[RIC_WX]

On 9/14/2022 at 11:00 AM, nj2va said:

Yeah agree or the dreaded cutter that dumps 3" of rain then flips back to cold/snowy.  Two winters ago, there was a stretch of Christmas week through late February (ish) of solid snow on the ground.  They can handle periods where the pattern flips to unfavorable but it can't last for weeks on end like it did last December which forced Wisp to eventually close the week between Christmas and New Years.  

Last year the holidays were warmer in absolute terms (50’s for days) than 2021 Memorial Day weekend at DCL (43*F the whole time) and that was a bona fide fact.  No matter how many more years I got that is a feat I am betting won’t repeat.

I literally slept Memorial Day weekend next to a kerosene heater and Christmas it was too warm to burn the wood stove without raising the windows.  I would really like to avoid that this year.

[psuhoffman]

I think some are making this more complicated than perhaps it has to be.  It is true that prior to 2000 there were plenty of healthy snowfall years in and around DC due to some minor factors going our way in otherwise unfavorable enso state.  But since 2000 that just hasn't been true anymore.  Since 2000 these are all the DC snowfall totals in -enso years and neutral years following a nina year (which tend to mimic nina results)

3.2", 13.6", 4.9", 7.5", 10.1", 2.0", 3.1", 3.4", 7.8", 0.6", 5.4", 13.2".  

The avg is 6" and the range is 0.6" to 13.6".

Every single season was below avg.

The truth is we have only done well in either a nino or a neutral year NOT following a nina.  So...it seems unless we are praying for some super anomalous fluke a reasonable expectation is "below avg" with a range somewhere between 1" and 13".  I don't think we really are likely to get much benefit from minor positive drivers in the pattern anymore...it seems we now need the major base states to all line up in our favor to get a snowy winter in and around DC.

If you live in the western and northern highlands of our regions this does not pertain to you...those areas can still manage a healthy snowfall total in less favorable seasons.