Winter 2022-23

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, like I said...its not going to be strong. I'll eat that guy's shorts if it does. You guys have a shot this year...don't listen to the doom and gloom.

We agree it’s not going to get strong. The NMME is suggesting a +NAO, if you watch the loop, it has a big cold pool develop around and south of Greenland and up into Davis Straight during winter. That is definitely not a -NAO signature. Not saying it’s right so I’m not sure where Ben Noll thinks it’s showing a -NAO

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We agree it’s not going to get strong. The NMME is suggesting a +NAO, if you watch the loop, it has a big cold pool develop around and south of Greenland and up into Davis Straight during winter. That is definitely not a -NAO signature. Not saying it’s right so I’m not sure where Ben Noll thinks it’s showing a -NAO

He didn't say that. He implied that the warmer SSTs may lead to a stormier pattern.

That would be interesting if the early season NAO works out....especially just back from the coast and at higher elevations.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He didn't say that. He implied that the warmer SSTs may lead to a stormier pattern.

That would be interesting if the early season NAO works out....especially just back from the coast and at higher elevations.

Given a favorable synoptic pattern, those super warm waters along the coast will enhance baroclinic instability/coastal fronts, but like you and I discussed earlier, good luck getting all snow events anywhere near the coast in December, there will be boundary layer issues galore in anything but an absolutely perfect setup

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Given a favorable synoptic pattern, those super warm waters along the coast will enhance baroclinic instability/coastal fronts, but like you and I discussed earlier, good luck getting all snow events anywhere near the coast in December, there will be boundary layer issues galore in anything but an absolutely perfect setup

Depends on the track, too because that influences wind direction. If we do have a negative NAO, there can be decent snows relatively close to the coast because the wind will not be due east.

[Volcanic Winter]

Guys I’m not fully caught up in this thread, but I wanted to share this link:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

Again referencing the Hunga Tonga eruption, they’re talking about a significant stratospheric cooling event underway in the Southern Hemisphere. They’re saying that correlative history suggests this may cause stratospheric warming in the northern hemisphere along with negative NAO states and below normal surface anomalies in our neck of the woods. 
 

Check it out, interesting if nothing else. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Guys I’m not fully caught up in this thread, but I wanted to share this link:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

Again referencing the Hunga Tonga eruption, they’re talking about a significant stratospheric cooling event underway in the Southern Hemisphere. They’re saying that correlative history suggests this may cause stratospheric warming in the northern hemisphere along with negative NAO states and below normal surface anomalies in our neck of the woods. 
 

Check it out, interesting if nothing else. 

You should def. get caught up on the thread because we just discussed that article for like 3 pages lol

[Volcanic Winter]

No worries! Glad you saw it, excited to read through. 

[psuhoffman]

On 9/8/2022 at 10:53 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

the -NAO correlation from Nov-Jan with the cold stratosphere is even more interesting when you consider the propensity for early blocking in the analogs, as you're saying. this is a legit west-based -NAO signal 

and when looking at these years' SH strat temperature anomalies from August to September, there is a definite signal for an anomalously cold stratosphere. it's obviously not to the extreme extent as we're seeing this year, but it's certainly similar

so, I see no reason to believe that December won't bring some decent winter chances before -ENSO climo takes over as we head into mid January - February

But yet almost every one of those years DC had very little or no snow in Dec and most went on to be pretty awful as a whole. 
 

Agaun this is why I find it hard to be optimistic. No matter how you dice it up, sort analogs, change what factors will be dominant…I’ve yet to see any any analog set that includes snowy winters down here.  There are reasons to be optimistic in places north of 40. This doesn’t look like a wall to wall torch everywhere winter. But we usually are on the outside watching others celebrate in those type years. 
 

I’ll duck and cover now. Deb out. 

[SnowenOutThere]

43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But yet almost every one of those years DC had very little or no snow in Dec and most went on to be pretty awful as a whole. 
 

Agaun this is why I find it hard to be optimistic. No matter how you dice it up, sort analogs, change what factors will be dominant…I’ve yet to see any any analog set that includes snowy winters down here.  There are reasons to be optimistic in places north of 40. This doesn’t look like a wall to wall torch everywhere winter. But we usually are on the outside watching others celebrate in those type years. 
 

I’ll duck and cover now. Deb out. 

As long as it snows enough to cover the grass and make everything look nice I will be happy.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

As long as it snows enough to cover the grass and make everything look nice I will be happy.

I’m not saying it won’t snow at all. Actually….I never would say that. Because even in the worst years USUALLY we luck into at least one decent snowfall somewhere.  The handful of near shutout years took a combo of awful pattern and bad luck. Even those worst years will have some marginal threats and one might hit. So even if we were staring something like that in the face I still wouldn’t predict a shut out. 
 

Personally I think trying to differentiate between a 10” or 6” or 2” snow winter in DC is kinda a waste of time.  Adjust those totals accordingly to fit your location.  For me I don’t bother trying to differentiate between a 25”, 18” or 12” winter. There is too much fluke involved in snow totals. A 10” winter in DC could be from a colder year with a decent base state pattern that just got unlucky with synoptic details. Or it could be a horrible pattern year where we got lucky once or twice!   An under 5” year takes an awful pattern but also bad luck. It’s going to drive you mad trying to predict that specific. All I try to do is identify if it’s going to be a year we likely end up above normal, near normal, or below. Once I decide it’s likely below I’m not wasting my time on if it ends up 9” or 3”. Frankly they are all bad to me so whatever. I don’t get depressed over it. I find other things to do. Track the chances at a fluke.  Travel to see snow. Being a skier helps!  But I’m not obsessing over whether DC gets 3” or 9”. And I’m not obsessing over whether I get 15” or 25” (kinda the equivalent).  When I do seasonal I’m hunting for those 25% of actual snowy winters.  Once I realize this probably ain’t one…the rest are all some degree of suck so whatever. 
 

Not saying anyone else should agree with this.  And I do think it’s valuable to try to differentiate more with temperatures just not with snow. Just explaining my crazy mindset.  

[IronTy]

There's a lot of analysis that apparently goes into how much snow we'll get in a winter.   I recommend drinking a beer and relaxing...thinking about the Higgs Field and how it gives mass to all matter.  That's the real shit.  

 

[Terpeast]

Central pac ssts cooling just south of the aleutians, slight warming trend off the west coast. Still a ways off from a +pdo (sig warming further west), but if trend holds, the pac may not be so hostile this winter. 
 

from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[StormchaserChuck!]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Central pac ssts cooling just south of the aleutians, slight warming trend off the west coast. Still a ways off from a +pdo (sig warming further west), but if trend holds, the pac may not be so hostile this winter. 
 

from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Long term PDO phases flush at like 60-80% vs Neutral. We are coming off of 7-8 years of strong -pdo. for example. 89-95 before 95-96 was the most +ENSO time on record, it followed by big +PNA in a weak La Nina (though ENSO subsurface neutral) 95-96 Winter (opposite)

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Central pac ssts cooling just south of the aleutians, slight warming trend off the west coast. Still a ways off from a +pdo (sig warming further west), but if trend holds, the pac may not be so hostile this winter. 
 

from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Ding, ding, ding.....

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, IronTy said:

There's a lot of analysis that apparently goes into how much snow we'll get in a winter.   I recommend drinking a beer and relaxing...thinking about the Higgs Field and how it gives mass to all matter.  That's the real shit.  

 

It's a weather forum.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not saying it won’t snow at all. Actually….I never would say that. Because even in the worst years USUALLY we luck into at least one decent snowfall somewhere.  The handful of near shutout years took a combo of awful pattern and bad luck. Even those worst years will have some marginal threats and one might hit. So even if we were staring something like that in the face I still wouldn’t predict a shut out. 
 

Personally I think trying to differentiate between a 10” or 6” or 2” snow winter in DC is kinda a waste of time.  Adjust those totals accordingly to fit your location.  For me I don’t bother trying to differentiate between a 25”, 18” or 12” winter. There is too much fluke involved in snow totals. A 10” winter in DC could be from a colder year with a decent base state pattern that just got unlucky with synoptic details. Or it could be a horrible pattern year where we got lucky once or twice!   An under 5” year takes an awful pattern but also bad luck. It’s going to drive you mad trying to predict that specific. All I try to do is identify if it’s going to be a year we likely end up above normal, near normal, or below. Once I decide it’s likely below I’m not wasting my time on if it ends up 9” or 3”. Frankly they are all bad to me so whatever. I don’t get depressed over it. I find other things to do. Track the chances at a fluke.  Travel to see snow. Being a skier helps!  But I’m not obsessing over whether DC gets 3” or 9”. And I’m not obsessing over whether I get 15” or 25” (kinda the equivalent).  When I do seasonal I’m hunting for those 25% of actual snowy winters.  Once I realize this probably ain’t one…the rest are all some degree of suck so whatever. 
 

Not saying anyone else should agree with this.  And I do think it’s valuable to try to differentiate more with temperatures just not with snow. Just explaining my crazy mindset.  

I think the high degree of variance with respect to snowfall makes it fun. Obviously a lot of luck involved, but it's not like there isn't with respect to fantasy sports, as well, and that doesn't stop people.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/10/2022 at 1:07 PM, psuhoffman said:

But yet almost every one of those years DC had very little or no snow in Dec and most went on to be pretty awful as a whole. 
 

Agaun this is why I find it hard to be optimistic. No matter how you dice it up, sort analogs, change what factors will be dominant…I’ve yet to see any any analog set that includes snowy winters down here.  There are reasons to be optimistic in places north of 40. This doesn’t look like a wall to wall torch everywhere winter. But we usually are on the outside watching others celebrate in those type years. 
 

I’ll duck and cover now. Deb out. 

You guys did okay in 2013-2014 and 1999-2000, correct?

[George BM]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You guys did okay in 2013-2014 and 1999-2000, correct?

2013-2014: Very good.

1999-2000: Okay. (A good nearly 2-week stretch)

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's a weather forum.

Ah cool, thanks for the heads up.   

[StormchaserChuck!]

Again, I'm really watching this as a cold Stratosphere/La Nina

[StormchaserChuck!]

Nothing remotely close to this since the mid-1970s

Many minus years in 2nd half of satelite period (1948-2020)

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You guys did okay in 2013-2014 and 1999-2000, correct?

Yes but those years weren’t in the analog set I was talking about. 2000/01 and 2001/02 and 2012/13 were and all were awful DC snowfall years. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

I don't know why I get attacked when PSUhoffman posts? Do you know? It seems innocent. 

(When people bypass my points, I seem to get hit. always been this way , for whatever reason) ???

I MEAN I GET HIT

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I don't know why I get attacked when PSUhoffman posts? Do you know? It seems innocent. 

(When people bypass my points, I seem to get hit. always been this way , for whatever reason) ???

I MEAN I GET HIT

The hemispheric energies aren’t aligned with the geomagnetic tilt. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

I guess there is a forum/message block. whatever, it's not sophisticated stuff. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, IronTy said:

Ah cool, thanks for the heads up.   

Didn't seem as though you were privy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but those years weren’t in the analog set I was talking about. 2000/01 and 2001/02 and 2012/13 were and all were awful DC snowfall years. 

99-00 is a decent analog, only issue is I think la nina will be weaker.

[Ji]

Yes but those years weren’t in the analog set I was talking about. 2000/01 and 2001/02 and 2012/13 were and all were awful DC snowfall years. 

I liked 2000-2001. Felt like we were so close and so much to track

[StormchaserChuck!]

I think we'll do a combination of 99-00 and 00-01.

 

El Nino is really nothing to sneeze at

[snowman19]