Winter 2022-23

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1999-2000 is actually a pretty good ENSO match in terms of placement if the SST anomalies (basin wide with west lean), but this event will be weaker.

That season sucked up here.

But your point is exactly what I am getting at...on paper, there is no way that this season looks good for your area, but there is a path for it to be decent...perhaps even a bit wider of a path than there was that year.

it wouldn’t shock me. Even when I predict below avg snow I never think that means it’s a lock. Just more likely than not. Weirder things have and will happen. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This is Europe centered and the mean is misleading since it’s skewed by different ENSO years but there is something useful to be gleaned. 
 

These years featured a pretty good December -NAO. But other than the Nino years they mostly didn’t do much good for our area.  The cold enso years were pretty low on snow. 
 

Positive though most did feature some snow so the idea it will likely snow some this year is supported.  But this is why I’m skeptical of focusing on a front loaded winter. More often than not we waste even a good pattern before Xmas. I know the thought of holiday period snow is nice, I like that too, but ideally we really want our best patterns to line up in January and February if we want some confidence we benefit from it. 

So, this is actually the correct composite for the high solar/W QBO Dec composite...more of an ATL thumb ridge than an NAO per se....1999-2000 is the only decent ENSO match.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

it wouldn’t shock me. Even when I predict below avg snow I never think that means it’s a lock. Just more likely than not. Weirder things have and will happen. 

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So, this is actually the correct composite for the high solar/W QBO Dec composite...more of an ATL thumb ridge than an NAO per se....1999-2000 is the only decent ENSO match.

 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Pretty useless set when some of those Decembers were polar opposites in terms of pattern. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The new EPS seasonal for December is showing why you need a poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO) to get cold into the pattern. At face value, it’s showing a flat Aleutian high and it allows PAC air to flood the pattern: 

 

When isn’t a Euro long range forecast a torch?

[WinterWxLuvr]

@40/70 Benchmark

I saw you throw out 2010-2011 a while back. Just jumped in to say that winter was an eyelash from being a good one here. Every event went wrong, some at the last minute, except Jan 26 (think that’s right). But had several events that just missed.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Something tells me that this not one of the HM Tweets that @snowman19will be sharing....not enough +++++AO/NAO talk

Anthony Masiello

 

@antmasiello

 

 

Replying to

@JuliusSubovic

@SimonLeeWx

and 7 others

West QBO / solar max condition in previous research was not a runaway +AO or weak planetary wave signal. In fact, it was found to have decent amplitude wave activity (Calvo Marsh 2011). In addition, there's no indication yet that the water vapor cooling will dominate all lats.

 

 

8:47 AM · Sep 6, 2022·Twitter for Android

I never said December would torch. December may in fact be the best month of the winter. However, high solar flux and geomag/Niña/+QBO/record volcanic water vapor in the stratosphere/current Atlantic SSTs are definitely not screaming a -AO/-NAO winter to me. I don’t think HM is suggesting that we should expect that either in that tweet. I will also say the Niña and it’s configuration/west lean, whatever we want to call it and the -PDO are also not screaming a 2013-14 +PNA/-EPO to me either. I don’t think we are going to see the big poleward Aleutian ridging like we did last winter either 

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I never said December would torch. December may in fact be the best month of the winter. However, high solar flux and geomag/Niña/+QBO/record volcanic water vapor in the stratosphere/current Atlantic SSTs are definitely not screaming a -AO/-NAO winter to me. I don’t think HM is suggesting that we should expect that either in that tweet. I will also say the Niña and it’s configuration/west lean, whatever we want to call it and the -PDO are also not screaming a 2013-14 +PNA/-EPO to me either. I don’t think we are going to see the big poleward Aleutian ridging like we did last winter either 

It's not about saying what you did or didn't say...I'm just illustrating the point that there is a pattern to your posts. You would have never have tweeted something like that because it doesn't meet your agenda. You are right; you will never explicitly say it, but you like to needle the shit out of winter fans. Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Pretty useless set when some of those Decembers were polar opposites in terms of pattern. 

That's not the point....the point is that 1999-2000 is really the only viable analog from that set.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

When isn’t a Euro long range forecast a torch?

I wouldn’t call that pattern an all out torch. The only thing saving that from happening is the east-based -NAO it’s showing. If @40/70 Benchmarkis right and we see a flat Aleutian high this winter, we will need all the help we can get from the NAO because I don’t think we are going to sustain any +PNA or -EPO. I’m also skeptical about the AO cooperating much

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I wouldn’t call that pattern an all out torch. The only thing saving that from happening is the east-based -NAO it’s showing. If @40/70 Benchmarkis right and we see a flat Aleutian high this winter, we will need all the help we can get from the NAO because I don’t think we are going to sustain any +PNA or -EPO. I’m also skeptical about the AO cooperating much

I would say the ample cold source in Canada prevents the torch across the northern US.

I think we could sustain a PNA....hell, we had a +PNA after December even last year.

[StormchaserChuck!]

I like how this snowcover is going to land over Russia, with below normal temperatures for the next 15 days. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Opposite of last winter would be a neg NAO December....we had the one good shot of neg NAO in Dec, but the month averaged slightly positive. 

We actually kept the -PNA at bay (warmth here) with -NAO.. notice the low pressure over the Azores.

 

+100dm

This year could be opposite. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

We actually kept the -PNA at bay (warmth here) with -NAO.. notice the low pressure over the Azores.

 

+100dm

This year could be opposite. 

Yea, but the result was that the compression between the -NAO and record RNA sheared all of the storms to shit...that's why we couldn't even a SWFE up here last December.

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's not the point....the point is that 1999-2000 is really the only viable analog from that set.

Yea and that December was a torch which is the opposite of what the person who compiled that analog set was implying. And a “set” of 1 is pretty useless Imo. Just saying I wouldn’t weight that much at all based on the variance of the entire set and limited enso comps. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea and that December was a torch which is the opposite of what the person who compiled that analog set was implying. And a “set” of 1 is pretty useless Imo. Just saying I wouldn’t weight that much at all based on the variance of the entire set and limited enso comps. 

Depends on how you view analogs....I think December will be wintery, but I also view 1999-2000 as a viable analog. Anyone who feels as season needs to be a replica of what is to unfold doesn't understand how analogs work (not saying that is the case with you).

[StormchaserChuck!]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, but the result was that the compression between the -NAO and record RNA sheared all of the storms to shit...that's why we couldn't even a SWFE up here last December.

It was an impacting-NAO, so this Dec will probably be +NAO

It gets really hard to get snow in this condition

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

It was an impacting-NAO, so this Dec will probably be +NAO

It gets really hard to get snow in this condition

We'll have to agree to disagree on the NAO this December.

We'll see...

[CAPE]

Latest CFS runs implying a pretty favorable look for December and Jan with +heights up top, and the PAC ridge is displaced more eastward towards the west coast for Jan. Neutral to +PNA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest CFS runs implying a pretty favorable look for December and Jan with +heights up top, and the PAC ridge is displaced more eastward towards the west coast for Jan. Neutral to +PNA.

Totally buy that.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Totally buy that.

The general gloom and doom is a bit dramatic/emotional imo. The Strat water vapor impacts are highly uncertain for the upcoming winter, and the influence of QBO phase is nebulous wrt tropospheric impacts/ HL blocking. ENSO most likely will be trending neutral mid to late winter..

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The general gloom and doom is a bit dramatic/emotional imo. The Strat water vapor impacts are highly uncertain for the upcoming winter, and the influence of QBO phase is nebulous wrt tropospheric impacts/ HL blocking. ENSO most likely will be trending neutral mid to late winter..

This one post beautifully encapsulates everything that I have been trying to convey to @snowman19. Seasonal forecasts are almost like fantasy drafts in the sense that people don't always appreciate that you need to evaluate analog seasons in terms of percentages....ie if you are looking for 1995-1996/2009-2010 upside, then this season is likely to disappoint. But that doesn't mean it isn't going to deliver pretty high value. In fantasy sports, there are some players that are drafted highly because of the high degree of confidence that they will have a decent season, rather than an elite ceiling. This season to me feels like it has a safe floor and a relatively low ceiling for a lot of the east coast, so while it may not have the allure of the high ceiling to lure weenies into drafting it in the first round, I think its a safe bet to return decent winter value.

We have a hemisphere in a great state of flux as it begins to rapidly shift gears towards a warm ENSO phase, and quite a favorable one for winter enthusiasts, at that......JMHO.

[WinterWxLuvr]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The general gloom and doom is a bit dramatic/emotional imo.

When isn’t it? It’s the same every year.

[CAPE]

50 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

When isn’t it? It’s the same every year.

Because certain folks here need to 'mentally prepare' for the devastation of not getting much snow, in a region where snow is always a challenge. If only everyone had reasonable expectations based on their climo lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Early guess at December:

 

[bigtenfan]

This may be a totally off the wall thought but over on the tropic site Storm2k there was a post bringing up 1976 which featured season long  heat and drought in Europe and a similar hurricane season( SO FAR) to what we are having now. Those of us old enough remember the winter that followed in the east: historically cold but really not that much snow which was followed by 2 pretty cold and  snowy winters.

Do any experts on this board have any thoughts on that analog?

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

The Strat water vapor impacts are highly uncertain for the upcoming winter,

Now this I'm genuinely curious about (NOT with any expectation it'll do one thing or another, so don't say that, lol) but legit wondering what it'll look like. Strong volcanic eruptions and the weird weather effects I find kinda fascinating (especially after learning about Tambora...man that was something else!) And now this time instead of ash we have...water vapor? Hmm

[Stormfly]

30 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

This may be a totally off the wall thought but over on the tropic site Storm2k there was a post bringing up 1976 which featured season long  heat and drought in Europe and a similar hurricane season( SO FAR) to what we are having now. Those of us old enough remember the winter that followed in the east: historically cold but really not that much snow which was followed by 2 pretty cold and  snowy winters.

Do any experts on this board have any thoughts on that analog?

Winter of '77 was BRUTAL for sure.  I remember so many people saying it was "too cold to snow". 

If it's not going to snow, I'd much prefer milder temps especially given fuel prices.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This one post beautifully encapsulates everything that I have been trying to convey to @snowman19. Seasonal forecasts are almost like fantasy drafts in the sense that people don't always appreciate that you need to evaluate analog seasons in terms of percentages....ie if you are looking for 1995-1996/2009-2010 upside, then this season is likely to disappoint. But that doesn't mean it isn't going to deliver pretty high value. In fantasy sports, there are some players that are drafted highly because of the high degree of confidence that they will have a decent season, rather than an elite ceiling. This season to me feels like it has a safe floor and a relatively low ceiling for a lot of the east coast, so while it may not have the allure of the high ceiling to lure weenies into drafting it in the first round, I think its a safe bet to return decent winter value.

We have a hemisphere in a great state of flux as it begins to rapidly shift gears towards a warm ENSO phase, and quite a favorable one for winter enthusiasts, at that......JMHO.

Combining weather and fantasy football...that was beautiful man 

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

This may be a totally off the wall thought but over on the tropic site Storm2k there was a post bringing up 1976 which featured season long  heat and drought in Europe and a similar hurricane season( SO FAR) to what we are having now. Those of us old enough remember the winter that followed in the east: historically cold but really not that much snow which was followed by 2 pretty cold and  snowy winters.

Do any experts on this board have any thoughts on that analog?

It could be similar just in the sense that 1976-1977 had a very diffuse STJ and was all N stream...that is why it sucked down there. That is a risk this year......that said, I def. would not use it as an analog, per se.