Winter 2022-23

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, poolz1 said:

This thread has actually been a joy to read and follow.  The lack of condescending undertones has been pretty refreshing.  But we all knew that wouldn't last long.

 

4 hours ago, IronTy said:

The nerve of that guy not to post up free forecasts for everybody on the internet and maintain a free blog and be subject to ridicule and have to defend his weather predictions years later.  

I wasn't calling Tom out and he owes us nothing.....allowing us the privilege of reading his work over the past several years was a real gift. I was simply speculating on the rationale as to why he abruptly stopped not only contributing weather insight, but any type of engagement whatsoever. Just thought it was strange to suddenly go mute and lurk....wasn't meant to be an indictment. 

[IronTy]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I wasn't calling Tom out and he owes us nothing.....allowing us the privilege of reading his work over the past several years was a real gift. I was simply speculating on the rationale as to why he abruptly stopped not only contributing weather insight, but any type of engagement whatsoever. Just thought it was strange to suddenly go mute and lurk....wasn't meant to be an indictment. 

I'm guilty of doing that shit too so I'm also poking fun at myself.  Mostly with JB though and since I've paid hundreds of dollars a year for quite a few years now for my WB sub I don't feel too bad about it.  

[WEATHER53]

15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, I know....love Tom's work. 

@raindancewxis one of the better ones, too IMO.

HM also 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

HM also 

He doesn't issue winter outlooks and I honestly don't follow him too much any more....since he left this forum, most of his stuff on Twitter is really complex and somewhat esoteric tropical phenomena that really just glazes my eyes over. That said, brilliant weather mind, agreed.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He doesn't issue winter outlooks and I honestly don't follow him too much any more....since he left this forum, most of his stuff on Twitter is really complex and somewhat esoteric tropical phenomena that really just glazes my eyes over. That said, brilliant weather mind, agreed.

I love technical, and much of what I teach is probably considered esoteric, but I struggle with his content at times- although I appreciate it. I dig fluid mechanics, but I am kinda hanging on when I read some of his tweets.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I love technical, and much of what I teach is probably considered esoteric, but I struggle with his content at times- although I appreciate it. I dig fluid mechanics, but I am kinda hanging on when I read some of his tweets.

What/where do you teach?

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What/where do you teach?

I teach all aspects of industrial automation/process control to Marine engineers.  You can probably figure out where knowing generally where I live and letting Google help a little.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Just really warm in our NAO-box area for the Winter (0.54SD correlation). 

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, IronTy said:

I'm guilty of doing that shit too so I'm also poking fun at myself.  Mostly with JB though and since I've paid hundreds of dollars a year for quite a few years now for my WB sub I don't feel too bad about it.  

The little respect I still had left for JB was lost back in the fall of 2015 when he was trying to hype the super El Niño into a “west-based” super El Niño and was still arguing that it was going to be a cold and snowy winter for the east coast. He had 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10 as his “analogs”. He made himself into a total damned fool and so did Judah Cohen who was calling for a very cold/snowy winter because of Siberian snowcover (SAI) that October despite Nino region 3.4 hitting an all time record of +3.1C at the end of November 

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I love technical, and much of what I teach is probably considered esoteric, but I struggle with his content at times- although I appreciate it. I dig fluid mechanics, but I am kinda hanging on when I read some of his tweets.

Most of his posts are are like black and white diagrams of the tropics with a bunch of arrows and mention of the word "flux" no less than four times.

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I teach all aspects of industrial automation/process control to Marine engineers.  You can probably figure out where knowing generally where I live and letting Google help a little.

Oh do expand on that.  I'm a consulting engineer for the O&G industry so I do all sorts of automation and electrical engineering which includes world scale tanker ships.  Gotta keep Europe's lights on for the time being (local electric bills be damned).  

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The little respect I still had left for JB was lost back in the fall of 2015 when he was trying to hype the super El Niño into a “west-based” super El Niño and was still arguing that it was going to be a cold and snowy winter for the east coast. He had 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10 as his “analogs”. He made himself into a total damned fool and so did Judah Cohen who was calling for a very cold/snowy winter because of Siberian snowcover (SAI) that October despite Nino region 3.4 hitting an all time record of +3.1C at the end of November 

Was that the winter he had his JMA total capitulation?  It was so embarrassing, I felt bad for him.  

[CAPE]

49 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Oh do expand on that.  I'm a consulting engineer for the O&G industry so I do all sorts of automation and electrical engineering which includes world scale tanker ships.  Gotta keep Europe's lights on for the time being (local electric bills be damned).  

I teach everything from sensors- RTDs and thermocouples, pressure and flow measurement methods etc,  PLC programming and troubleshooting, PID control/tuning, to industrial networks that are found on modern vessels.  In general we provide technical and regulatory/safety training to US Merchant marines, MSC, US Navy, Cruise ship industry, dredging and marine services.

[yoda]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

I teach everything from sensors- RTDs and thermocouples, pressure and flow measurement methods etc,  PLC programming and troubleshooting, PID control/tuning, to industrial networks that are found on modern vessels.  In general we provide technical and regulatory/safety training to US Merchant marines, MSC, US Navy, Cruise ship industry, dredging and marine services.

Hmmm... are you nearby the Navy Yard or Naval Academy?  My sister is a contractor and graduated from the Naval Academy in 2011... she is moving up quickly in the safety levels -- she does a lot of the safety stuff for the new Virginia and Columbia class subs that are being built

[IronTy]

11 hours ago, CAPE said:

I teach everything from sensors- RTDs and thermocouples, pressure and flow measurement methods etc,  PLC programming and troubleshooting, PID control/tuning, to industrial networks that are found on modern vessels.  In general we provide technical and regulatory/safety training to US Merchant marines, MSC, US Navy, Cruise ship industry, dredging and marine services.

Awesome.  In a previous life I did flight test instrumentation.  RTDs, T/Cs, strain gages, etc.   Never did any work on ships though.  Sounds like a cool job to get paid for.  Bet you get to work on some cool ships.  

[Eskimo Joe]

10 hours ago, yoda said:

Hmmm... are you nearby the Navy Yard or Naval Academy?  My sister is a contractor and graduated from the Naval Academy in 2011... she is moving up quickly in the safety levels -- she does a lot of the safety stuff for the new Virginia and Columbia class subs that are being built

Probably not the best idea to ask about these things on a public forum.

[thunderbolt]

On 8/27/2022 at 6:10 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Most of his posts are are like black and white diagrams of the tropics with a bunch of arrows and mention of the word "flux" no less than four times.

https://t.co/gK3tCuYBYo Very interesting article about the stratosphere in the south pole with the volcano irruption that took place And how it could possibly affect the NAO in the  northern hemisphere

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

https://t.co/gK3tCuYBYo Very interesting article about the stratosphere in the south pole with the volcano irruption that took place And how it could possibly affect the NAO in the  northern hemisphere

I don’t follow his logic, if it caused the stratosphere to cool during winter in the Southern Hemisphere, why would it cause the stratosphere in the northern hemisphere to warm? The stratosphere is the stratosphere and water vapor in the stratosphere has been scientifically proven to cool it, doesn’t matter if it’s south of north of the equator. Water vapor from the eruption has already infiltrated the northern hemisphere. He’s also talking about SSWEs, I was honestly confused by that article. Is the author a meteorologist?

[WEATHER53]

On 8/27/2022 at 3:56 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He doesn't issue winter outlooks and I honestly don't follow him too much any more....since he left this forum, most of his stuff on Twitter is really complex and somewhat esoteric tropical phenomena that really just glazes my eyes over. That said, brilliant weather mind, agreed.

I think there is too much emphasis on ever evolving indexes thar are unproven as to their veracity and effects. SSW shows little, MJO a little bit better, but stuff like the Indian ocean dipole and a dozen others like it I feel are mostly theory and looking for different ways to reinvent the wheel. They do provide elaborate discussion from the poster and as you suggested that appears to be the main motivation for the posting 

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t follow his logic, if it caused the stratosphere to cool during winter in the Southern Hemisphere, why would it cause the stratosphere in the northern hemisphere to warm? The stratosphere is the stratosphere and water vapor in the stratosphere has been scientifically proven to cool it, doesn’t matter if it’s south of north of the equator. Water vapor from the eruption has already infiltrated the northern hemisphere. He’s also talking about SSWEs, I was honestly confused by that article. Is the author a meteorologist?

I know I just thought the article was kind of interesting myself I guess will revisit this in March of next year to see if it came to fruition or not

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t follow his logic, if it caused the stratosphere to cool during winter in the Southern Hemisphere, why would it cause the stratosphere in the northern hemisphere to warm? The stratosphere is the stratosphere and water vapor in the stratosphere has been scientifically proven to cool it, doesn’t matter if it’s south of north of the equator. Water vapor from the eruption has already infiltrated the northern hemisphere. He’s also talking about SSWEs, I was honestly confused by that article. Is the author a meteorologist?

You must love that lol

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t follow his logic, if it caused the stratosphere to cool during winter in the Southern Hemisphere, why would it cause the stratosphere in the northern hemisphere to warm? The stratosphere is the stratosphere and water vapor in the stratosphere has been scientifically proven to cool it, doesn’t matter if it’s south of north of the equator. Water vapor from the eruption has already infiltrated the northern hemisphere. He’s also talking about SSWEs, I was honestly confused by that article. Is the author a meteorologist?

I was confused also, he seemed to sort of contradict himself, at least to me.  But the way it was written I was able to interpret it as bullish for cold and snow this winter with PV appearances....so I'm taking it as gospel at least til December when I capitulate and make my way to The Panic Room.  

[CAPE]

Quote

We looked at the historical data and found that there is a weak indication of the south stratospheric cooling, coinciding with later stratospheric warming events over the northern hemisphere. However, much more research is needed, as other background signals can be at play.

[CAPE]

One thing we do know is the state of the SPV does not always dictate the character of the TPV, which is larger, not seasonal, can manifest as multiple vortices, and more directly influences our sensible weather.

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

One thing we do know is the state of the SPV does not always dictate the character of the TPV, which is larger, not seasonal, can manifest as multiple vortices, and more directly influences our sensible weather.

We just can't know yet.  

[snowman19]

These SSTs off the east coast of North America are insane, hot tub water. They are only going to serve to positively feedback into and strengthen the WAR/SE ridge: 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

No tweets mentioning the weakening of la nina?

17AUG2022     20.1-0.8     24.3-0.8     25.7-1.2     27.7-1.0
 24AUG2022     20.3-0.5     24.5-0.4     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.8

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

These SSTs off the east coast of North America are insane, hot tub water. They are only going to serve to positively feedback into and strengthen the WAR/SE ridge: 

 

Going to be some big coastals, too.

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No tweets mentioning the weakening of la nina?

17AUG2022     20.1-0.8     24.3-0.8     25.7-1.2     27.7-1.0
 24AUG2022     20.3-0.5     24.5-0.4     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.8

 

[snowman19]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No tweets mentioning the weakening of la nina?

17AUG2022     20.1-0.8     24.3-0.8     25.7-1.2     27.7-1.0
 24AUG2022     20.3-0.5     24.5-0.4     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.8