Winter 2022-23

[StormchaserChuck!]

Yeah, I've been noticing the subsurface and surface ENSO have not been connected, re: subsurface-N. Pacific correlation. 

I said that 3-Nina's have not been all warm though, so the pattern disconnection isn't so anomalous, historically speaking. 

 

[GramaxRefugee]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay, so you mean sensible obs are not consistent with the teleconnection indicators....

The frustration of long range forecasting summed up in one brief thought.
(OTOH, that's part of the fun.)

[StormchaserChuck!]

I like teleconnection indicators. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why do you make a series of posts supporting +NAO/AO/EPO, and then make another post citing the tendency for a -NAO/EPO?

You are difficult to follow sometimes...maybe its me, and I'm missing something.

You must be new here

And you left out -PNA

[aldie 22]

19 pages of silence and counting....anyone here think Isotherm left because he was hazed or because perhaps his work got noticed and he's now getting paid....just sayin....carry on with the silence.

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I like teleconnection indicators. 

In my opinion teleconnection indicators are worthless if the system is compromised by warming air temperatures and warming water temperatures over time and this process may also be speeding up a bit. 

 

On a side note, Atlantic City NJ water temps August 1st was 58 degrees at the beaches last 24 hours we have seen a peak to 83.4 degrees these are just wild swings overall the water is warming which may cause teleconnections to be way off. 

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

19 pages of silence and counting....anyone here think Isotherm left because he was hazed or because perhaps his work got noticed and he's now getting paid....just sayin....carry on with the silence.

I said the same thing last year around November where was his winter outlook it was silence I don’t think anybody was critical of him he’s was usually spot on with his  predictions that he made hopefully he’ll do one this upcoming winter

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

I said the same thing last year around November where was his winter outlook it was silence I don’t think anybody was critical of him he’s was usually spot on with his  predictions that he made hopefully he’ll do one this upcoming winter

His last prediction was actually pretty flawed...he had very +NAO for 2020-2021 and it was negative.

[Rhino16]

2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

19 pages of silence and counting....anyone here think Isotherm left because he was hazed or because perhaps his work got noticed and he's now getting paid....just sayin....carry on with the silence.

I saw him lurking yesterday. Didn’t post anything, but their name was listed at the bottom of the page. I’m sure they’re alright.

[thunderbolt]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

His last prediction was actually pretty flawed...he had very +NAO for 2020-2021 and it was negative.

Keyword (usually)I know he’s a very big critic on himself when it comes to grading 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, thunderbolt said:

Keyword (usually)I know he’s a very big critic on himself when it comes to grading 

I was wondering if he took the reduced level of that success with that last forecast to heart and became frustrated.

[thunderbolt]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was wondering if he took the reduced level of that success with that last forecast to heart and became frustrated.

I really don’t know He never really chimed in when there were storms approaching hopefully he’s OK then again maybe he got offered a paying job and can’t really talk about his thoughts anymore

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

I really don’t know He never really chimed in when there were storms approaching hopefully he’s OK then again maybe he got offered a paying job and can’t really talk about his thoughts anymore

In the past when that was the case, people just said that. You would also think maybe his blog would go paywall for something, but just abandoned. 

Strange.

[thunderbolt]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In the past when that was the case, people just said that. You would also think maybe his blog would go paywall for something, but just abandoned. 

Strange.

But I do look forward to your winter analysis coming up

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Maestrobjwa]

29 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

That is frickin' hilarious, lolol

[yoda]

40 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

i stopped reading after lots of snow and very cold

[George BM]

Just now, yoda said:

i stopped reading after lots of snow and very cold

This is dawaaae.

[raindancewx]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

How many low Atlantic ACE/La Niña/volcanic years did you find? Also, what was the QBO, IOD, solar and PDO doing in those years? Thank you

I'm treating Tonga as a N. Hem volcano because it erupted more greenhouse gasses than aerosols, since N Hem / S Hem volcanoes have opposite effects on the Northern Hemisphere hurricane seasons. So the big N. Hem volcanoes I know of are El Chicon (1982), with Volcan De Fuego debatable in 1932 and 1974. I don't think the 1932 eruption was big enough though - since 1933 was an insane hurricane season. The volcanic / dead La Nina hurricane seasons I'm looking at are really 1983-84, 1984-85, and 1985-86 (even though I don't consider it a La Nina, it's close enough).

You won't find a match on all the factors you listed with how few major volcanic years there are. High solar is generally a monsoon enhancer globally. The top precipitation matches recently, on a national level have been these:

You can see temps are similar to a similar set of years too. It's generally a dead La Nina / cold ENSO + volcanic blend.

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I'm treating Tonga as a N. Hem volcano because it erupted more greenhouse gasses than aerosols, since N Hem / S Hem volcanoes have opposite effects on the Northern Hemisphere hurricane seasons. So the big N. Hem volcanoes I know of are El Chicon (1982), with Volcan De Fuego debatable in 1932 and 1974. I don't think the 1932 eruption was big enough though - since 1933 was an insane hurricane season. The volcanic / dead La Nina hurricane seasons I'm looking at are really 1983-84, 1984-85, and 1985-86 (even though I don't consider it a La Nina, it's close enough).

You won't find a match on all the factors you listed with how few major volcanic years there are. High solar is generally a monsoon enhancer globally. The top precipitation matches recently, on a national level have been these:

You can see temps are similar to a similar set of years too. It's generally a dead La Nina / cold ENSO + volcanic blend.

Thank you. I’m actually surprised this event is so robust….normally the 3rd Niña in a “triple dip” event is the weakest….that is not the case this year, the MEI is also indicating a very well coupled (ocean-atmosphere)  Niña : 

 

[snowman19]

The high solar flux continues: 

 

 

[mattie g]

19 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

In my opinion teleconnection indicators are worthless if the system is compromised by warming air temperatures and warming water temperatures over time and this process may also be speeding up a bit. 

 

On a side note, Atlantic City NJ water temps August 1st was 58 degrees at the beaches last 24 hours we have seen a peak to 83.4 degrees these are just wild swings overall the water is warming which may cause teleconnections to be way off. 

Water temps in the 80s is silly high for the South Jersey beaches, but having temps under 60 in peak summer is pretty common. It's caused by upwelling during relatively prolonged southerly winds. The rapid increase in temps is uncommon, but is caused by downwelling on more northerly winds - it's less common because consistent northerly winds are uncommon in summer. The Coriolis effect causes the water to move in a 90-degree angle to the right of the wind direction, which is why you get south winds moving warm water offshore that gets replaced by cold water from underneath. Warm surface water moves from offshore and displaces the cool water nearer land on those northerly winds.

Basically, these are very localized temp swings that are caused solely by local winds.

Guarantee the water about 5-10 miles off the coast was nice and warm while they were wearing hoodies on the beach.

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmarkand anyone else interested, here is research regarding +QBO/Niña years: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2022JD036691

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmarkand anyone else interested, he is research regarding +QBO/Niña years: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2022JD036691

I'm not sure this research really offers any new findings.....+QBO/la nina correlate to a stronger PV, and -QBO/la nina to a weaker PV, but as last season illustrated, this is but one piece to the puzzle.

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

Water temps in the 80s is silly high for the South Jersey beaches, but having temps under 60 in peak summer is pretty common. It's caused by upwelling during relatively prolonged southerly winds. The rapid increase in temps is uncommon, but is caused by downwelling on more northerly winds - it's less common because consistent northerly winds are uncommon in summer. The Coriolis effect causes the water to move in a 90-degree angle to the right of the wind direction, which is why you get south winds moving warm water offshore that gets replaced by cold water from underneath. Warm surface water moves from offshore and displaces the cool water nearer land on those northerly winds.

Basically, these are very localized temp swings that are caused solely by local winds.

Guarantee the water about 5-10 miles off the coast was nice and warm while they were wearing hoodies on the beach

As of this morning ACY broke a record ocean water temperature was 84.7!!

[psuhoffman]

On 8/25/2022 at 1:16 PM, leesburg 04 said:

19 pages of silence and counting....anyone here think Isotherm left because he was hazed or because perhaps his work got noticed and he's now getting paid....just sayin....carry on with the silence.

Everyone is still saying the same things. But some aren’t being jackasses about it because they got called out. 

[poolz1]

This thread has actually been a joy to read and follow.  The lack of condescending undertones has been pretty refreshing.  But we all knew that wouldn't last long.

[IronTy]

51 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

This thread has actually been a joy to read and follow.  The lack of condescending undertones has been pretty refreshing.  But we all knew that wouldn't last long.

The nerve of that guy not to post up free forecasts for everybody on the internet and maintain a free blog and be subject to ridicule and have to defend his weather predictions years later.  

[WEATHER53]

On 8/25/2022 at 3:57 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was wondering if he took the reduced level of that success with that last forecast to heart and became frustrated.

Can’t get it right all the time. Him, Matt R, Raleigh, Ray, KA, and couple more do well generally.  
He will contribute later 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Can’t get it right all the time. Him, Matt R, Raleigh, Ray, KA, and couple more do well generally.  
He will contribute later 

Oh, I know....love Tom's work. 

@raindancewxis one of the better ones, too IMO.