Winter 2022-23

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

False.

The MEI is the highest....meaning it has established the strongest coupling with the atmosphere of third year la ninas, however it borderline weak/moderate in terms of intensity.

Yes. I should have specified in the MEI sense 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes. I should have specified in the MEI sense 

I figured you meant that...just saying.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I figured you meant that...just saying.

Here you go…..this would seemingly support your initial thoughts that December is cold then Jan and Feb get torchy. Also has the fall pattern in there….

 

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here you go…..this would seemingly support your initial thoughts that December is cold then Jan and Feb get torchy. Also has the fall pattern in there….

 

@40/70 Benchmark 

 

[snowman19]

@40/70 BenchmarkYour initial thoughts seem to be pretty good so far, this winter may have to come down to a favorable PAC at times to get anything. Evidence is mounting (high solar flux/high geomag/solar flares, Atlantic SSTs, Modoki Niña, Volcanic effects, +QBO) that the AO/NAO are possibly going to be downright hostile. From HM, re. Volcano’s effects on the stratosphere: 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

We could steal some negative NAO in December and March, but it will def. average positive DM.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We could steal some negative NAO in December and March, but it will def. average positive DM.

Not a popular opinion around here but I think the Pacific is a bigger piece for an overall good winter here. I’m not looking for blizzards.

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not a popular opinion around here but I think the Pacific is a bigger piece for an overall good winter here. I’m not looking for blizzards.

Pacific is definitely more important, but the NAO is a factor, especially given a hostile Pacific.

[Maestrobjwa]

I'd like to discuss what fantasy range (or even 150 hr range) model runs and snowmaps do to our psyches...lol *waits for someone to retort "I'd like to discuss you not posting" or something of the sort*

[snowman19]

13 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not a popular opinion around here but I think the Pacific is a bigger piece for an overall good winter here. I’m not looking for blizzards.

Agree for the most part and not just here, further north as well. Back in 13-14 and 14-15 we had a garbage Atlantic and arctic but the PAC made up for it with a record ++PDO and strong +PNA/-EPO/-WPO. This year, I think we are going to need the AO/NAO for anything sustained. I doubt we will be able to really sustain a good PAC for long because of the Niña Modoki/-PDO/-IOD background states

[snowman19]

On 8/19/2022 at 10:23 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I figured you meant that...just saying.

IMO the reason why this Niña is continuing to strengthen is constructive interference with the -IOD. If we had a +IOD right now, I believe it would be destructively interfering with the Niña and it would be nowhere near as strong as it is now. Back in 2016, had it not been for the -IOD event constructively interfering with the developing Niña, I don’t believe we would have ever seen an official Niña that winter

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/20/2022 at 12:30 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I actually don't think the IOD and nina are coupled....according to research, the IOD isn't directly triggered by la nina unless it's a new event that develops by early summer...year long and late developing events interact differently with the ambient atmosphere over the tropical Pac.

This is a big reason why I think the rug gets pulled out quickly this winter, regardless of the state of the subsurface in August. This will serve to give el nino a real head start and it will at that point couple with the IO next summer...probably inducing another negative event. 

 

 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

IMO the reason why this Niña is continuing to strengthen is constructive interference with the -IOD. If we had a +IOD right now, I believe it would be destructively interfering with the Niña and it would be nowhere near as strong as it is now. Back in 2016, had it not been for the -IOD event constructively interfering with the developing Niña, I don’t believe we would have ever seen an official Niña that winter

I actually think a disconnect with the IOD is why it isn't even stronger.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Agree for the most part and not just here, further north as well. Back in 13-14 and 14-15 we had a garbage Atlantic and arctic but the PAC made up for it with a record ++PDO and strong +PNA/-EPO/-WPO. This year, I think we are going to need the AO/NAO for anything sustained. I doubt we will be able to really sustain a good PAC for long because of the Niña Modoki/-PDO/-IOD background states

If you think la nina holds firmly into March, sure.

[CAPE]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Agree for the most part and not just here, further north as well. Back in 13-14 and 14-15 we had a garbage Atlantic and arctic but the PAC made up for it with a record ++PDO and strong +PNA/-EPO/-WPO. This year, I think we are going to need the AO/NAO for anything sustained. I doubt we will be able to really sustain a good PAC for long because of the Niña Modoki/-PDO/-IOD background states

Patterns like that can bring the cold, but if the AO/NAO is predominately neutral/positive then timing is more critical as the flow is progressive. We lucked into some nice events those winters. The Atlantic wasn't exactly 'garbage' either. Still, pretty fluky. Could have easily been more of the cold and dry/mild and wet type deal. A +PNA pattern can also be on the dry side. The data clearly shows the importance of a -AO for the DC area to get above avg snowfall. We need the Pac to not be completely hostile, and at this latitude a pronounced STJ is important as well. Thus why the combo of Moderate Nino -AO/-NAO is the holy grail. In that scenario the Pac will at least be serviceable, a strong southern stream  will bring the juice, and HL blocking will encourage a mean storm track further south with cold feeding in from the N/NE.

[snowman19]

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you think la nina holds firmly into March, sure.

I think there is still a weak Niña in March. Once we get into April I think it’s completely over and we’re ENSO neutral and warming. I would expect that we go weak Nino come summer

[WEATHER53]

Pretty much finished and will be released early on 9/15

its not going to be another boring ass+5F winter with 7” of snow.

More later 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Pretty much finished and will be released early on 9/15

its not going to be another boring ass+5F winter with 7” of snow.

More later 

 

I think alot of people are underestimating the Pacific this year.

[WEATHER53]

I see 2013 and last year 2021 in posts and I too have them. 

[snowman19]

15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think alot of people are underestimating the Pacific this year.

IMO hope for a poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO). I honestly don’t think you are going to sustain +PNA/-EPO with the -PDO and Niña but I could be wrong. Guess we’ll see

[WxUSAF]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO hope for a poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO). I honestly don’t think you are going to sustain +PNA/-EPO with the -PDO and Niña but I could be wrong. Guess we’ll see

Why? A -WPO in insolation usually is bad for us and teleconnects to a SE ridge. It’s only useful if it can rollover into the EPO and PNA domains.

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO hope for a poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO). I honestly don’t think you are going to sustain +PNA/-EPO with the -PDO and Niña but I could be wrong. Guess we’ll see

I'm not saying we are going to have a favorable Pacific from 12/1 to 3/31, but I think we will have some periods of PNA....like we did last season from January through March.

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Why? A -WPO in insolation usually is bad for us and teleconnects to a SE ridge. It’s only useful if it can rollover into the EPO and PNA domains.

Well yes but at least a -WPO would help keep Canada seeded with arctic air so when the EPO dips negative and the PNA goes positive it can bring the arctic down

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think alot of people are underestimating the Pacific this year.

I also think a lot of folks are overestimating ENSO this season....this thing is going to begin going in the other direction sooner than consensus IMHO.

[George BM]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I also think a lot of folks are overestimating ENSO this season....this thing is going to begin going in the other direction sooner than consensus IMHO.

Based on everything you've said over the past few months I'm guessing that you are thinking it peaks moderate (-1 to -1.3C ONI) around November before weakening throughout the winter?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, George BM said:

Based on everything you've said over the past few months I'm guessing that you are thinking it peaks moderate (-1 to -1.3C ONI) around November before weakening throughout the winter?

Its still early and I reserve the right to change my mind between now and issuance in early Novie, but right now I would say anywhere from -0.9 to -1.1, like last season, but a much faster demise.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not saying we are going to have a favorable Pacific from 12/1 to 3/31, but I think we will have some periods of PNA....like we did last season from January through March.

I have a feeling any good periods are going to have to come from the PAC. What is going on right now with the sun is reminiscent of the late summer/fall high solar flux of 2001. Solar activity has been way overperforming since February and it continues unabated: 

 

[snowman19]

@40/70 BenchmarkI’m guessing you think +PNA/-WPO driven December? I’m leaning towards that too the more I think about it. I’m not too optimistic for a big -EPO but we’ll see. I can tell you one thing, the 2010-2011 analog some on twitter are throwing out/wishcasting looks real, real bad right now. I honestly would not be surprised to see an overall ++AO/++NAO winter (Dec-Mar). This is just bad: 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 BenchmarkI’m guessing you think +PNA/-WPO driven December? I’m leaning towards that too the more I think about it. I’m not too optimistic for a big -EPO but we’ll see. I can tell you one thing, the 2010-2011 analog some on twitter are throwing out/wishcasting looks real, real bad right now. I honestly would not be surprised to see an overall ++AO/++NAO winter (Dec-Mar). This is just bad: 

 

2010-2011 was a great ENSO analog last year, but this year, not so much. I agree NAO will average positive overall.

[WEATHER53]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I also think a lot of folks are overestimating ENSO this season....this thing is going to begin going in the other direction sooner than consensus IMHO.

Enso has become less of a predictor than 20+ years ago.

Mostly don’t want strong low pressure out in Pacific off nw and AK and really can’t tell about that until December.

-AO/-NAO has been showing me it’s The Factor for mid Atlantic.  Raymundo gets his cold air easier 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Enso has become less of a predictor than 20+ years ago.

Mostly don’t want strong low pressure out in Pacific off nw and AK and really can’t tell about that until December.

-AO/-NAO has been showing me it’s The Factor for mid Atlantic.  Raymundo gets his cold air easier 

Yes, but still a central player....I think it was always a fool's errand to focus efforts on any single predictor, anyway. Nothing operates in a vacuum.