Winter 2022-23

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, IronTy said:

ALEET!   

Weatherbell has their prelim winter forecast out and is predicting below normal temps and above normal snow for eastern US.  This is a departure from their usual winter forecast when they predict below normal temps and above normal snow every year.   

Weatherbell is predicting a cold and snowy winter for the east coast again??? No way I don’t believe it!!! That’s so out of character!! It’s a Niña so I’m sure their analogs are 95-96, 10-11 and March of 1993

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Weatherbell is predicting a cold and snowy winter for the east coast again??? No way I don’t believe it!!! That’s so out of character!! It’s a Niña so I’m sure their analogs are 95-96, 10-11 and March of 1993

Aren’t you in New York? Why do you care what winter is here?

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Overall unfavorable, but that doesn't mean that there can't be some favorable stretches....early and late is the most likely timeframe for any such period IMO.

Yea my guess is still favorable early on. The concern would be how long any favorable PAC would be able to sustain itself given the strong -PDO and this: 

 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Aren’t you in New York? Why do you care what winter is here?

I don’t think there’s going to be much of a difference between the NYC metro and the mid-Atlantic this coming winter. New England may be a different story

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea my guess is still favorable early on. The concern would be how long any favorable PAC would be able to sustain itself given the strong -PDO and this: 

 

Two points:

1) Do we really need to ferret out tweets at this point to re enforce the notion of a third consecutive la nina this winter? No one is doubting that at this stage...

2) Be careful what you wish for because if you look at the structure of the subsurface right now, a strong easterly wind burst near the dateline is only going to serve to erode the modoki nature of this la nina.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm actually not that concerned about the negative PDO....my hunch is that we actually average a slightly positive PNA. The larger concern will be the tendency for a fairly flat Aleutian ridge if la nina remains modoki through the fall and into the winter, which is not a given.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark This is just lending even more support to your idea that the NAO/AO are going to be hostile this winter….solar activity increasing…solar flares, geomag storms….. 

https://www.foxweather.com/earth-space/geomagnetic-storm-watch-us.amp

Now see, what makes me pull my stubs of hair out is how we completely wasted all the low solar we had 3 years ago. Oh sure the -AO/-NAO seemed to respond in 2020-21...but whoops, not enough cold air, and the PV split in the wrong spot and went into TX, smh Mercy

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Two points:

1) Do we really need to ferret out tweets at this point to re enforce the notion of a third consecutive la nina this winter? No one is doubting that at this stage...

2) Be careful what you wish for because if you look at the structure of the subsurface right now, a strong easterly wind burst near the dateline is only going to serve to erode the modoki nature of this la nina.

Region 1+2 is almost in an El Niño right now. I think it’s abundantly clear where this is all headed for in 2023-2024 and I’m sure a lot of people will be overjoyed 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Region 1+2 is almost in an El Niño right now. I think it’s abundantly clear where this is all headed for in 2023-2024 and I’m sure a lot of people will be overjoyed 

Its not going to become east based, but I think there is still a chance that la nina grows more basin wide....there is a lot of warmer subsurface anomalies west, and cooler anomalies east and at some point those anomalies are going to surface as part of the incipient stages of an ensuing modoki el nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

53 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now see, what makes me pull my stubs of hair out is how we completely wasted all the low solar we had 3 years ago. Oh sure the -AO/-NAO seemed to respond in 2020-21...but whoops, not enough cold air, and the PV split in the wrong spot and went into TX, smh Mercy

Its only one piece to the puzzle....you guys will have a good winter shortly.

[Eskimo Joe]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Two points:

1) Do we really need to ferret out tweets at this point to re enforce the notion of a third consecutive la nina this winter? No one is doubting that at this stage...

2) Be careful what you wish for because if you look at the structure of the subsurface right now, a strong easterly wind burst near the dateline is only going to serve to erode the modoki nature of this la nina.

I don't think you understand how desperate things are in these parts. We have bad climo to begin with and it's getting more hostile each year. We've had some truly terrible luck the past 2 years which has made this sub-forum incredibly frustrated.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I don't think you understand how desperate things are in these parts. We have bad climo to begin with and it's getting more hostile each year. We've had some truly terrible luck the past 2 years which has made this sub-forum incredibly frustrated.

I get it....I have been well below average every season since 2017-2018, while many spots around me have done well. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get it....I have been well below average every season since 2017-2018, while many spots around me have done well. 

Below average in NE means you still get some snow or at least stand a chance. Below average in the MA, especially south and east of I-95 means 34 and rain all winter. I moved where I am to help my climo out, but I know that's not an option for a lot of people. Honestly, I'd give a lot to have a nice month from say Dec 18 - Jan 15 where it's cold and we get a nice cold power 8" - 12" on Christmas day that hangs around for the decorations.

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Below average in NE means you still get some snow or at least stand a chance. Below average in the MA, especially south and east of I-95 means 34 and rain all winter. I moved where I am to help my climo out, but I know that's not an option for a lot of people. Honestly, I'd give a lot to have a nice month from say Dec 18 - Jan 15 where it's cold and we get a nice cold power 8" - 12" on Christmas day that hangs around for the decorations.

For me, its all about where you are relative to average...but I get it...sucks to have virtual shut outs within your climatological grasp. Not the case here.

I think you guys will have a shot at a decent period this December.

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I don't think you understand how desperate things are in these parts. We have bad climo to begin with and it's getting more hostile each year. We've had some truly terrible luck the past 2 years which has made this sub-forum incredibly frustrated.

“These parts” is fairly localized .. as in if you’re at sea level it’s gonna be tough.

[Stormfly]

DW has gone total hot dog this time! 

[IronTy]

18 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

DW is gone total hot dog this time! 

A true verifiable ALEET.  He's even more bullish than JB, I didn't think it could be done.  Though listening to the video it's a bit more tempered.  

[Kay]

54 minutes ago, IronTy said:

A true verifiable ALEET.  He's even more bullish than JB, I didn't think it could be done.  Though listening to the video it's a bit more tempered.  

Richmond: BURIED

Battlezone SAFELY south

[IronTy]

37 minutes ago, Kay said:

Richmond: BURIED

Battlezone SAFELY south

Short Pump is gonna cash in this year.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, IronTy said:

A true verifiable ALEET.  He's even more bullish than JB, I didn't think it could be done.  Though listening to the video it's a bit more tempered.  

Who is DW?

[roardog]

12 hours ago, IronTy said:

ALEET!   

Weatherbell has their prelim winter forecast out and is predicting below normal temps and above normal snow for eastern US.  This is a departure from their usual winter forecast when they predict below normal temps and above normal snow every year.   

Except that it actually doesn’t predict that. It has the entire east coast with slightly above normal temps. It’s also not a winter forecast, it’s a Nov-Mar forecast. 

[IronTy]

9 hours ago, roardog said:

Except that it actually doesn’t predict that. It has the entire east coast with slightly above normal temps. It’s also not a winter forecast, it’s a Nov-Mar forecast. 

It's typical JB where he hypes the winter in his posts:. 

 

"The bottom line is we have a relatively bullish HDD season and when we look at snow, that is likely to be above normal in much of the nation from the Plains to the East Coast."

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, roardog said:

Except that it actually doesn’t predict that. It has the entire east coast with slightly above normal temps. It’s also not a winter forecast, it’s a Nov-Mar forecast. 

That seems reasonable to me.

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmark Thoughts on this? I didn’t realize how far this current 3rd year La Niña event was from the previous “triple dip” events. MEI: 

ONI: 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark Thoughts on this? I didn’t realize how far this current 3rd year La Niña event was from the previous “triple dip” events. MEI: 

ONI: 

 

It's not surprising since last years event was also well coupled, and the event has never abated. It should start to tick downward by probably like October/November.

[jacindc]

Anyone want to edjumacate me on what to root for to have north central Wyoming buried in record snow?

[StormchaserChuck!]

On 8/15/2022 at 2:49 PM, IronTy said:

Snow snowmageddon is back on?

Moderator deleted my post that the analogs were really dry..

I like the 2017-2018 analog right now, given our strong -PDO/-PNA decadal and current +PNA. 

 

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's not surprising since last years event was also well coupled, and the event has never abated. It should start to tick downward by probably like October/November.

I’m thinking it’s a November/December peak but regardless, BAMWX has a point about this 3rd year La Niña being the strongest in history. Whether that ultimately matters in the long run, I don’t know. That aside, you and I both agree that we are headed for an El Niño in ‘23-‘24. I think we are finally ENSO neutral/La Nada come April

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m thinking it’s a November/December peak but regardless, BAMWX has a point about this 3rd year La Niña being the strongest in history. Whether that ultimately matters in the long run, I don’t know. That aside, you and I both agree that we are headed for an El Niño in ‘23-‘24. I think we are finally ENSO neutral/La Nada come April

False.

The MEI is the highest....meaning it has established the strongest coupling with the atmosphere of third year la ninas, however it borderline weak/moderate in terms of intensity.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

False.

The MEI is the highest....meaning it has established the strongest coupling with the atmosphere of third year la ninas, however it borderline weak/moderate in terms of intensity.

Yes. I should have specified in the MEI sense