Winter 2022-23

[Jebman]

East Coast will be utterly annihilated by snow in 2022-2023. Emphasis on the DC Metropolitan Region.

You got this coming, you been askin' for it, and you are gonna get it!

[Jebman]

I love the Mid Atlantic so much, and am pulling so unbelievably hard for record breakin snows in your region this winter ---- That I would be happily willing to undergo 90 degrees accompanied by 75 dewpoints from September 2022, thru to April 2023, so that the Mid Atlantic can be stuck in a record trough with unbelievably cold weather and snow after snow after snow after snow after snow for months on end, in the Washington Metropolitan Region, THIS winter, 2022 into 2023.

That, is how much I will always love you all over there, and I will always be hoping wishing and praying hard, that you will get so much snow there, that you will indeed be tired of snow, only to get blasted by more snow! You will live in the models, live by the models, and live for the models as you enjoy snow after ridiculous snow this winter, in the Washington Metropolitan Region!

[IronTy]

10 hours ago, Jebman said:

I love the Mid Atlantic so much, and am pulling so unbelievably hard for record breakin snows in your region this winter ---- That I would be happily willing to undergo 90 degrees accompanied by 75 dewpoints from September 2022, thru to April 2023, so that the Mid Atlantic can be stuck in a record trough with unbelievably cold weather and snow after snow after snow after snow after snow for months on end, in the Washington Metropolitan Region, THIS winter, 2022 into 2023.

That, is how much I will always love you all over there, and I will always be hoping wishing and praying hard, that you will get so much snow there, that you will indeed be tired of snow, only to get blasted by more snow! You will live in the models, live by the models, and live for the models as you enjoy snow after ridiculous snow this winter, in the Washington Metropolitan Region!

Cocaine is a helluva drug.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

It’s over. It’s always over this time of year. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

+PNA August's since 2000, evens out over Alaska in the Winter. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s over. It’s always over this time of year. 

Let me ask ya something...are you expecting a good winter?

[WinterWxLuvr]

46 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Let me ask ya something...are you expecting a good winter?

Always. I prefer to think that way.

Nobody can accurately predict snow. They may get close on the overall pattern, but not snow. Too many variables 

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

+PNA August's since 2000, evens out over Alaska in the Winter. 

Snow snowmageddon is back on?

[roardog]

You guys will be glad to know that the Weatherbell prelim Nov-Mar forecast has the entire East Coast between normal and +1 for temperatures with an emphasis on a colder December.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

You guys will be glad to know that the Weatherbell prelim Nov-Mar forecast has the entire East Coast between normal and +1 for temperatures with an emphasis on a colder December.

yeah that sounds about right

[Maestrobjwa]

6 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Always. I prefer to think that way.

Nobody can accurately predict snow. They may get close on the overall pattern, but not snow. Too many variables 

Yeah but isn't that like...a little against logic? I mean when almost every index is against ya...you're still gonna choose to believe it'll be good? (I'm curious to know what you were thinking going into 2019-20, lol) Or are you just like an eternal optimist in general?

[nw baltimore wx]

26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but isn't that like...a little against logic? I mean when almost every index is against ya...you're still gonna choose to believe it'll be good? (I'm curious to know what you were thinking going into 2019-20, lol) Or are you just like an eternal optimist in general?

It can snow when the overall indices aren’t in our favor, not to mention that it’s still August. Let it play out.

[Maestrobjwa]

35 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

It can snow when the overall indices aren’t in our favor, not to mention that it’s still August. Let it play out.

I mean don't ya gotta have at least one? (Or for ninas maybe two or three, lol). Nina, high solar, no -AO/-NAO in sight...I mean it may not be 2019-20 bad (I hope), but what else is there?

Maybe I'm a bit jaded from "letting it play out" last year and the year before...and having it turn out typical nina, lol The result last year in particular was like beyond predictable!

[Jebman]

11 hours ago, IronTy said:

Cocaine is a helluva drug.  

It sure is, never could get enough, I look terrible these days. lol

[Jebman]

Coke or not though, I will always LOVE the Washington DC Metro Region, and I will always be pulling for massive crippling snows for y'all!

[snowman19]

On 8/13/2022 at 6:19 PM, WxUSAF said:

I doubt it as HT-HH emitted very little SO2 into the stratosphere. 

True, I’m more interested in what all this record water vapor does in the stratosphere. It just worked its way into the northern hemisphere: 

 

[dailylurker]

9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but isn't that like...a little against logic? I mean when almost every index is against ya...you're still gonna choose to believe it'll be good? (I'm curious to know what you were thinking going into 2019-20, lol) Or are you just like an eternal optimist in general?

I don't know how many times I watched the winter forecast be great for winter weather and we got nothing. Seasonal forecast aren't any better then the farmers almanac. 

[CAPE]

9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean don't ya gotta have at least one? (Or for ninas maybe two or three, lol). Nina, high solar, no -AO/-NAO in sight...I mean it may not be 2019-20 bad (I hope), but what else is there?

Maybe I'm a bit jaded from "letting it play out" last year and the year before...and having it turn out typical nina, lol The result last year in particular was like beyond predictable!

What other choice is there other than letting it play out?

The MA lowlands generally suck at snow regardless of ENSO state. There are many paths to failure. Our 'good' winters occur when most of the indices are favorably aligned, and we get plenty of luck with small scale features and timing. It's always a struggle, and likely more so now and going forward.

[snowman19]

13 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah that sounds about right

At this point I don’t think anyone is expecting a big winter given the current setup nor should they be. You also don’t have 1997 or 2015 with a raging super El Niño inbound where you know the upcoming winter is a total lost cause before it even starts….

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

What other choice is there other than letting it play out?

The MA lowlands generally suck at snow regardless of ENSO state. There are many paths to failure. Our 'good' winters occur when most of the indices are favorably aligned, and we get plenty of luck with small scale features and timing. It's always a struggle, and likely more so now and going forward.

I don't know why anyone engages with these posts. It's always the same response, no matter the reasoning or logic behind the posts being made.

[brooklynwx99]

5 hours ago, CAPE said:

What other choice is there other than letting it play out?

The MA lowlands generally suck at snow regardless of ENSO state. There are many paths to failure. Our 'good' winters occur when most of the indices are favorably aligned, and we get plenty of luck with small scale features and timing. It's always a struggle, and likely more so now and going forward.

you guys just need a moderate to strong central-based +ENSO to really cash in. there's actually a big correlation between that ENSO state and well above average snows for you guys due to the combination of a strong STJ and N Atlantic blocking

andddd that ENSO state looks quite likely during 2023-24, if not 2024-25. just gotta be patient, it's coming

[CAPE]

30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you guys just need a moderate to strong central-based +ENSO to really cash in. there's actually a big correlation between that ENSO state and well above average snows for you guys due to the combination of a strong STJ and N Atlantic blocking

andddd that ENSO state looks quite likely during 2023-24, if not 2024-25. just gotta be patient, it's coming

Yeah that is the good winter scenario for here that I was speaking of. Most people understand that. We also can do ok with various other ENSO states, but it's more of a crapshoot. A persistent -AO/-NAO has the highest correlation to cold/ above avg snow here, and HL blocking concurrent with a C. Pac based Nino gives us the best odds.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 hours ago, CAPE said:

What other choice is there other than letting it play out?

The MA lowlands generally suck at snow regardless of ENSO state. There are many paths to failure. Our 'good' winters occur when most of the indices are favorably aligned, and we get plenty of luck with small scale features and timing. It's always a struggle, and likely more so now and going forward.

Yeah there's another choice...ignore it entirely and track ENSO status for 2023-24, lolol

5 hours ago, mattie g said:

I don't know why anyone engages with these posts. It's always the same response, no matter the reasoning or logic behind the posts being made.

You tell me why is it so bad to say when things aren’t close to being aligned...that the winter isn't worth tracking? I'll say that and people will act like it's illogical. It's one thing if it was a couple years ago and it looked like we'd have the AO/NAO on our side...at least there was a chance. Now it didn't work out that great, but it was worth looking at where we might have a chance.

So now here we are this year, another nina, and no indices in our favor to help...why is it bad/illogical to just write it off, ignore it and track enso for next winter? Other than being optimistic just to be optimistic...in that case we can do that any year no matter what, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you guys just need a moderate to strong central-based +ENSO to really cash in. there's actually a big correlation between that ENSO state and well above average snows for you guys due to the combination of a strong STJ and N Atlantic blocking

andddd that ENSO state looks quite likely during 2023-24, if not 2024-25. just gotta be patient, it's coming

Yep. If we can get that or close...that at least will be a winter worth tracking. That's a historically more favorable setup. No 100% guarantees...but it's much better to track when ya got more in your favor. I do hope it happens!

[aldie 22]

I sure wish it was silent in here

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I sure wish it was silent in here

Ain't nobody told you to come in here, lol

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmark This is just lending even more support to your idea that the NAO/AO are going to be hostile this winter….solar activity increasing…solar flares, geomag storms….. 

https://www.foxweather.com/earth-space/geomagnetic-storm-watch-us.amp

[IronTy]

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark This is just lending even more support to your idea that the NAO/AO are going to be hostile this winter….solar activity increasing…solar flares, geomag storms….. 

https://www.foxweather.com/earth-space/geomagnetic-storm-watch-us.amp

Carrington event any day now, society will shut down causing global cooling and massive blizzards in 23-24.  Storms everywhere.  And rumors of storms.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

On 8/15/2022 at 9:07 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

are you just like an eternal optimist in general?

Yes. Think about all of the adjectives associated with people who are the opposite of that and ask yourself if that’s really the person you want to be.

[IronTy]

ALEET!   

Weatherbell has their prelim winter forecast out and is predicting below normal temps and above normal snow for eastern US.  This is a departure from their usual winter forecast when they predict below normal temps and above normal snow every year.