Eskimo Joe Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 18 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: yes, exactly... @40/70 Benchmark and I are both quite bullish on 2023-24 due to the probable Modoki +ENSO event that follows these environments if so, could be a legit blockbuster for a good portion of the MA. time will tell! just gotta be patient 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 42 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The double problem this year is even if ENSO can get overcome by other factors, which can happen under certain circumstances, most/all of the other indicators are also in unfavorable states: PDO, QBO, solar activity, etc. Maybe Siberian snowcover will save us!?!? #sai4lyfe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 I'm just worried things are still too upbeat in here. Hope more people swing by to make sure we are keeping it real. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 5 hours ago, mattie g said: The problem is that we're not the northern Mid-Atlantic (or at least 95% of us aren't). If we assume ENSO as the only variable, then we're almost certain to get the suck down here this year. I see. The models are projecting La Niña to be weak so even you guys farther south have a decent chance. A couple years ago people used the solar min to argue winter would be big, we didn’t get a big winter (maybe some local areas did well, but a widespread big winter like 95-96, 10-11 ect was nowhere to be found). Maybe there is a lag and the run of big winters with -nao that were supposed to come with the solar min are coming up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: I'm just worried things are still too upbeat in here. Hope more people swing by to make sure we are keeping it real. @psuhoffman has a 10 page thesis ready for posting in October 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: I'm just worried things are still too upbeat in here. Hope more people swing by to make sure we are keeping it real. EJ will keep us in check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 38 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @psuhoffman has a 10 page thesis ready for posting in October tl;dr 75% of our winters suck, and even years with analogs to good winters in the past would suck now given AGW. Therefore, there's no reason to think we'll ever have a good winter again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: I'm just worried things are still too upbeat in here. Hope more people swing by to make sure we are keeping it real. Things are upbeat here? While it's too early to make any calls, I can't seem to get excited about this winter anyhow. ENSO and all the teleconnections are working against us, broadly giving us the exact opposite of what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 I see my thinly veiled sarcasm wasn't thin enough... No, it's not too upbeat, Terp. It is page after page of people swinging by to say how dire it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I see my thinly veiled sarcasm wasn't thin enough... No, it's not too upbeat, Terp. It is page after page of people swinging by to say how dire it is... Not true, the guy from Northern New England seems fairly upbeat about his chances 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I see my thinly veiled sarcasm wasn't thin enough... No, it's not too upbeat, Terp. It is page after page of people swinging by to say how dire it is... Ah, right. Sarcasm doesn't come through a computer screen very well, at least for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Not true, the guy from Northern New England seems fairly upbeat about his chances Woodstock, VT the new Carbondale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: Woodstock, VT the new Carbondale? Short Pump of the north 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 16 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I see my thinly veiled sarcasm wasn't thin enough... No, it's not too upbeat, Terp. It is page after page of people swinging by to say how dire it is... I posted the snowmobile forecast a couple of pages back that looked promising. I believe in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I posted the snowmobile forecast a couple of pages back that looked promising. I believe in it. time to fire up for the snowmobile trails around Oregon Ridge lol? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: @psuhoffman has a 10 page thesis ready for posting in October I need @Bob ChiII and his WD index I think it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 43 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: time to fire up for the snowmobile trails around Oregon Ridge lol? I’d be happy with a storm that dropped enough to be able to do some xc skiing at local golf courses. And if it stuck around for a few days to ski the same tracks, all the better. It’s been awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 Outside of a Modoki Nino with persistent HL blocking, getting snow is a crapshoot, and we mostly score with fluky/well timed events east of the highlands. The big EPO ridge winter of 2013-14 was fluky, despite having some significant cold around. Could have easily been a lot of cold and dry, mild and wet with a general lack of NA blocking. The coastal plain doing well last Jan when the pattern shifted to colder (while inland NW areas mostly missed out) was pretty fluky. Multiple scrapers that could have easily been fish storms and complete misses everywhere. We just can't know, esp not now lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 The problem with comparing maps, indices, and analog years is that even if the anomalies are very similar, they are usually not exactly the same. Those tiny differences matter. Don’t stick a fork in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 10 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: I see my thinly veiled sarcasm wasn't thin enough... No, it's not too upbeat, Terp. It is page after page of people swinging by to say how dire it is... Is this the thread to discuss the coming winter or is this thread supposed to be propaganda to make snow weenies feel better? Everything looks like crap. It’s about as uniformly bad across all measurable factors as I’ve ever seen it! Therefore when knowledgeable posters wander in and comment it’s going to be the same. Some version of “looks like $&@!” That’s not their fault. There are only 3 options. We get a litany of “it’s likely crap” posts. A bunch of BS wishcasting just to make people feel good. Or this thread is dead silent. All this doesn’t mean we can’t get lucky with a couple storms or that we can’t 100% rule out a fluke. But “maybe a fluke” is not something that can be analyzed scientifically. So what do you want this thread to be? Based on real science or based on making people feel better about their chances of frozen water which their emotional stability seems overly tied to? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 I choose dead silent over your cut and paste doom posts....but that's just me...it's a free country....carry on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 Figures hoff would pick me to lash out at. You do you, Hoffman. Get some friends to come by from Vermont and Alaska and elsewhere to say the same damn things for 13 pages too. Good stuff. It was mostly a wry observational joke which a few people got but you are a humorless cyborg when it comes to such things. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 40 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Figures hoff would pick me to lash out at. You do you, Hoffman. Get some friends to come by from Vermont and Alaska and elsewhere to say the same damn things for 13 pages too. Good stuff. It was mostly a wry observational joke which a few people got but you are a humorless cyborg when it comes to such things. It wasn’t personal. Your post was just the latest of that kind so it’s the one that got quoted. Pretty much anyone who is making a legit science based prediction is going to say it looks bleak because it does. Everyone is entitled to their own preferences and opinions as @leesburg 04says, but as much as the “it’s probably gonna suck” posts bother some the litany of “I wish people would stop being debs” post irk me when all they are doing is making honest legit observations. The last thing I want is people to feel they can’t be honest because they will be told it’s too depressing. If someone can’t emotionally handle an honest good faith forecast or observation that’s not the fault of the forecaster. I get annoyed during winter when the thread gets filled with substance less whining and woe is me crap. It is what it is. But now some are having problems with legit posts just because they all say the obvious thing which is things don’t look good for a lot of snow this winter right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: I choose dead silent over your cut and paste doom posts....but that's just me...it's a free country....carry on Ok, have it your way. Maybe this is why we have like 5 people who contribute actual substantive posts in here anymore when we used to have like 20! I appreciate good analysis and scientific based forecasts even if they aren’t the outcome I would prefer. But I guess this isn’t the place for that. Enjoy your silence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok, have it your way. Maybe this is why we have like 5 people who contribute actual substantive posts in here anymore when we used to have like 20! I appreciate good analysis and scientific based forecasts even if they aren’t the outcome I would prefer. But I guess this isn’t the place for that. Enjoy your silence. You say the same thing over and over maybe change a word here or there. We get it!!! If there's nothing new to say then silence is better in my opinion. I also think you overstate why people left or post less maybe they just don't want to anymore or perhaps it's a paying gig now. You seem overly sensitive when challenged I'm assuming that's the debate coach in you? Anyway...shitty winter incoming I've heard hopefully we read about it over and over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 If you look to the Southern Hemisphere, this may be the first glimpse at the effects of the Tonga Hungarian volcanic eruption and its unprecedented release of water vapor into the stratosphere will have on this upcoming winter in the Northern Hemisphere: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: I also think you overstate why people left or post less maybe they just don't want to anymore or perhaps it's a paying gig now. It's like they always said, wry observational humor would be the death of the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 Having more H2O in the stratosphere will likely lead to more O3 destruction, but not necessarily at the pole pending how the circulation transports it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 9 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Everything looks like crap On 8/9/2022 at 11:28 AM, SnowenOutThere said: Lots of negativity in this thread based on good forecasters so instead lets all look at the CFS You really gonna do the CFS like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 10 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Is this the thread to discuss the coming winter or is this thread supposed to be propaganda to make snow weenies feel better? Everything looks like crap. It’s about as uniformly bad across all measurable factors as I’ve ever seen it! Therefore when knowledgeable posters wander in and comment it’s going to be the same. Some version of “looks like $&@!” That’s not their fault. There are only 3 options. We get a litany of “it’s likely crap” posts. A bunch of BS wishcasting just to make people feel good. Or this thread is dead silent. All this doesn’t mean we can’t get lucky with a couple storms or that we can’t 100% rule out a fluke. But “maybe a fluke” is not something that can be analyzed scientifically. So what do you want this thread to be? Based on real science or based on making people feel better about their chances of frozen water which their emotional stability seems overly tied to? I don't agree with that. I don't see any reason to think that Canada will be completely void of cold, like it is in our worst seasons. Obviously that is of more value to folks further north, but that is how it could look worse. I also don't see la nina remaining very potent this winter, either, which is another way that it could look worse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now