Winter 2022-23

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

In other words...don't waste your time folks, lol

It's more over than it's ever been over before. 

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I just don't get it...has this model or that sip-from a can...I mean CanSips-any actual good use? (Serious question)

What do you think lol? It's August and we want a tool that gives us an idea of what the general pattern will be in January. Outside of Enso, there isn't much else that's worth a damn at this juncture.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

What do you think lol? It's August and we want a tool that gives us an idea of what the general pattern will be in January. Outside of Enso, there isn't much else that's worth a damn at this juncture.

Lol Well yeah I know it's crao at this range...but is there any range where it does actually have a use? Some of these models I wonder why in the world somebody made them, lol

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

What do you think lol? It's August and we want a tool that gives us an idea of what the general pattern will be in January. Outside of Enso, there isn't much else that's worth a damn at this juncture.

Models are useless at this range. But there are some knowns. The vast majority of our snowy winters and HECS storms come from an El Niño. And drilling down even more most are modoki or basin wide ninos. Super ninos and east based ninos actually have a mixed track record. 
 

Among the rare snowy winters that had no enso help we usually saw multiple other major drivers lined up in our favor. 1996 was a Nina but the combo of North Atlantic and north pac SST, solar, and qbo was lined up and countermanded the weak unfavorable enso. 
 

2014 the north pac was very favorable and drove the bus. 
 

Right now I see nothing in our favor to indicate this is likely to end up one of those snowy years. 
 

It’s possible things change. Maybe by November there’s been a radical shift in something. But it’s unlikely Imo. 
 

But that also doesn’t mean it’s definitely a dreg 2020 type year either.  Could just be a typical 10-15” in the corridor “normal” winter. But most in here, and I don’t blame them, call those sucky winters. Just not as sucky. Truth is 60-70% of our winters are some degree of suck with a few good winters per decade thrown in just to keep hope alive. 
 

It’s really hard to predict between a total shutout and just a typical 12” winter in DC because we’re talking about getting lucky like twice making all the difference. 

look at 2000.  We got 3 straight snows from the only 3 threats we had all winter.  That could easily have been a dreg winter with less luck.  2001 was opposite.  Probably twice as many legit threats as 2000 but less luck.  Even 2020 there were several threats and they didn’t come together.  Get luckily a couple times and it was just a typical sucky year.

So I won’t try to say is this ends up a dreg under 5” winter or a typical 10-15” type winter… but I do think thosw are the reasonable expectations and goal posts at this point if I had to make an educated guess now  

 

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Lol Well yeah I know it's crao at this range...but is there any range where it does actually have a use? Some of these models I wonder why in the world somebody made them, lol

To torment you 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

To torment you 

Leesburg is that you? Lol

But seriously, I don't pay either of those models a bit of mind. I was just genuinely curious as to what use--and range--they actually have.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Leesburg is that you? Lol

I’m messing with you. But you’ve been on here for years. And you’re not stupid. You know how useless those seasonal monthly plots are from this range. But you also know what our odds of a snowy winter in a Nina when the QBO, Solar, and both north Atlantic and Pacific SSTs suck.  You just want someone to tell you otherwise. But you know.  

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m messing with you. But you’ve been on here for years. And you’re not stupid. You know how useless those seasonal monthly plots are from this range. But you also know what our odds of a snowy winter in a Nina when the QBO, Solar, and both north Atlantic and Pacific SSTs suck.  You just want someone to tell you otherwise. But you know.  

I think ya misread me a bit...I'm not really hoping someone will tell me otherwise. My lament on here has been about terrible ninas and why I gave up on this winter. Now, I'm met with folks saying "it's too early for this"...but my goodness we all know what most ninas (and in this case one without any kind of help unless something changes), look like. So I don't quite understand why people act like it's not logical for me to just look past this coming winter to winter 2023-24 (if we get a niño that is).

I mean, I think I can enjoy whatever scenery snow we get this winter that adds up to 10-15" (unless stuff is really hostile), but I'm not gonna waste my time tracking threats. Only thing I'll track is enso to see if the dang nina is finally fading...that's the only other thing I'll be interested in, lol

[StormchaserChuck!]

3 La Nina's have never been warm-all-3

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think ya misread me a bit...I'm not really hoping someone will tell me otherwise. My lament on here has been about terrible ninas and why I gave up on this winter. Now, I'm met with folks saying "it's too early for this"...but my goodness we all know what most ninas (and in this case one without any kind of help unless something changes), look like. So I don't quite understand why people act like it's not logical for me to just look past this coming winter to winter 2023-24 (if we get a niño that is).

I mean, I think I can enjoy whatever scenery snow we get this winter that adds up to 10-15" (unless stuff is really hostile), but I'm not gonna waste my time tracking threats. Only thing I'll track is enso to see if the dang nina is finally fading...that's the only other thing I'll be interested in, lol

There will be a threat for warning criteria snowfall, and you will track it. 

[WxUSAF]

In all honesty, I think this winter is probably going to be a dumpster fire. Triple dip Niña and a moderate modoki  Niña to boot? Throw in increasing solar activity and unfavorable QBO and…yikes. There’s very low sample size on moderate Ninas with a westerly QBO, so I guess we can hope on that…but still. Maybe we can get one nice event that pushes us out of total disaster?

[StormchaserChuck!]

I kind of like 11-12 and 12-13 as an analog (solar cycle similitaries). look at this!

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think ya misread me a bit...I'm not really hoping someone will tell me otherwise. My lament on here has been about terrible ninas and why I gave up on this winter. Now, I'm met with folks saying "it's too early for this"...but my goodness we all know what most ninas (and in this case one without any kind of help unless something changes), look like. So I don't quite understand why people act like it's not logical for me to just look past this coming winter to winter 2023-24 (if we get a niño that is).

I mean, I think I can enjoy whatever scenery snow we get this winter that adds up to 10-15" (unless stuff is really hostile), but I'm not gonna waste my time tracking threats. Only thing I'll track is enso to see if the dang nina is finally fading...that's the only other thing I'll be interested in, lol

It’s too early to give up on any snow. A snowstorm is still possible. And it’s too early to completely 100% give up on a snowy winter but the data suggests odds are very low. Less than 10% low. But our odds of a snowy winter are only about 27% going into any year if all indicators were neutral. 

[aldie 22]

Lol i know one thing is certain about this winter....you guys will either be right or wrong with your predictions

[SnowenOutThere]

Lots of negativity in this thread based on good forecasters so instead lets all look at the CFS

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Trough is the pattern since April, holding again today...

[brooklynwx99]

I have a very difficult time being optimistic for the MA this winter

there could be a fast start this December, but late Jan - Feb look to be pretty torchy. you guys (as well as NYC/PHL for that matter) would have to capitalize during a few weeks

some primary analogs based on ENSO, QBO and IOD are 1985-86, 1989-90, 2000-01, 2001-02, 2008-09, and 2012-13

[North Balti Zen]

Thank god, it was clearly too optimistic in here. Good for the reality check. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

some primary analogs based on ENSO, QBO and IOD are 1985-86, 1989-90, 2000-01, 2001-02, 2008-09, and 2012-13

I'll take 85-86, 01-02, 08-09, and 12-13 for 500 Alex...because of the years that followed them! 

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'll take 85-86, 01-02, 08-09, and 12-13 for 500 Alex...because of the years that followed them! 

yes, exactly... @40/70 Benchmark and I are both quite bullish on 2023-24 due to the probable Modoki +ENSO event that follows these environments

if so, could be a legit blockbuster for a good portion of the MA. time will tell! just gotta be patient

[yoda]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yes, exactly... @40/70 Benchmark and I are both quite bullish on 2023-24 due to the probable Modoki +ENSO event that follows these environments

if so, could be a legit blockbuster for a good portion of the MA. time will tell! just gotta be patient

I only read the bolded

[brooklynwx99]

btw, my analog post wasn't to say we have a completely snowless winter on the way

there could be a good wintry period from mid Dec - early Jan if I had to take a guess. something similar to last winter where there were definite, relatively short windows that you had to cash in on instead of a totally conducive / inconducive winter pattern for months at a time

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I have a very difficult time being optimistic for the MA this winter

there could be a fast start this December, but late Jan - Feb look to be pretty torchy. you guys (as well as NYC/PHL for that matter) would have to capitalize during a few weeks

some primary analogs based on ENSO, QBO and IOD are 1985-86, 1989-90, 2000-01, 2001-02, 2008-09, and 2012-13

12-13 was good for me, here. The DC crowd fondly remembers the March storm of 13.

[George001]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I have a very difficult time being optimistic for the MA this winter

there could be a fast start this December, but late Jan - Feb look to be pretty torchy. you guys (as well as NYC/PHL for that matter) would have to capitalize during a few weeks

some primary analogs based on ENSO, QBO and IOD are 1985-86, 1989-90, 2000-01, 2001-02, 2008-09, and 2012-13

If Nina becomes more east based the winter could be great. I know things don’t look good right now but it’s too early to write a big winter off, still a lot of time for things to change. Doesnt NYC and the northern mid Atlantic do well in ninas? I like the look of things for my area but if I’m remembering correctly even NYC does well in weak and moderate ninas.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

If Nina becomes more east based the winter could be great. I know things don’t look good right now but it’s too early to write a big winter off, still a lot of time for things to change. Doesnt NYC and the northern mid Atlantic do well in ninas? I like the look of things for my area but if I’m remembering correctly even NYC does well in weak and moderate ninas.

Sir you must not be from around these parts  For this subforum...except for southeast and west, ninas aren't usually good here

[wxdude64]

3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

12-13 was good for me, here. The DC crowd fondly remembers the March storm of 13.

I'd take a 12/13 again here too, about 90-95% of average and last snow fell on 4/5 lol. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I have a very difficult time being optimistic for the MA this winter

there could be a fast start this December, but late Jan - Feb look to be pretty torchy. you guys (as well as NYC/PHL for that matter) would have to capitalize during a few weeks

some primary analogs based on ENSO, QBO and IOD are 1985-86, 1989-90, 2000-01, 2001-02, 2008-09, and 2012-13

Mixed bag for me....3 good, 3 suck.

[mattie g]

12 hours ago, George001 said:

If Nina becomes more east based the winter could be great. I know things don’t look good right now but it’s too early to write a big winter off, still a lot of time for things to change. Doesnt NYC and the northern mid Atlantic do well in ninas? I like the look of things for my area but if I’m remembering correctly even NYC does well in weak and moderate ninas.

The problem is that we're not the northern Mid-Atlantic (or at least 95% of us aren't). If we assume ENSO as the only variable, then we're almost certain to get the suck down here this year.

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

The problem is that we're not the northern Mid-Atlantic (or at least 95% of us aren't). If we assume ENSO as the only variable, then we're almost certain to get the suck down here this year.

The double problem this year is even if ENSO can get overcome by other factors, which can happen under certain circumstances, most/all of the other indicators are also in unfavorable states: PDO, QBO, solar activity, etc. Maybe Siberian snowcover will save us!?!?

[aldie 22]

33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The double problem this year is even if ENSO can get overcome by other factors, which can happen under certain circumstances, most/all of the other indicators are also in unfavorable states: PDO, QBO, solar activity, etc. Maybe Siberian snowcover will save us!?!?

Or we find out that all of those factors don't control what we think they do. Check back in April for results