Winter 2022-23

[Volcanic Winter]

On 7/31/2022 at 4:18 PM, snowman19 said:

@Volcanic Winter The volcanic aspect of this coming winter: 

 

Sorry Snowman, just saw your tag. 
 

Yes, HTHH was an odd one, to say the least. On sheer explosive force alone it was unmatched back to Krakatau in the 1880’s (a moderately large VEI6 with surface cooling in the following years from volcanic aerosols). On volume, I’ve seen estimates that put it as a mid range VEI5 (5-8km^3) up to a decently sized VEI6 (~20km^3). Both, but especially the further you go toward the higher volume estimates are significant enough to produce volcanic cooling. 
 

The anomaly with HTHH is that it simply didn’t inject enough SO2 relative to its size and relative to similar eruptions, such as Pinatubo in 1991. That event put something like 40 times the amount of SO2 into the stratosphere and had a marked cooling effect for the the following several years. Some of the super storms in this time period, such as March 1993 are considered possibly linked to the eruption’s effects. 
 

There are other volcanic aerosols, but sulfur load in the stratospheric aerosol veil is the main or strongest component of volcanic cooling from a large eruption. It’s not a long duration effect (normally) as the sulfur reacts and eventually works itself out over the following couple years, largely ending the effect.  

Even stranger, HTHH put about 58,000 Olympic sized swimming pools of water vapor as high as the mesosphere, and I’m hearing the total amount added is something like 10% of the total that normally resides up in the stratosphere. That is *massive.* 

So yes, HTHH may end up having a paradoxical surface heating effect which would be the first time such an event happened in recorded modern history. After the initial large eruption the day before the final climactic blast to ~58km, the volcanic conduit was inundated with seawater at just the perfect depth to act as a pressure cooker to eject an enormous amount of water up above. It’s really very fascinating. These sorts of eruptions may not leave much of a trace in the long term records the way large ignimbrite eruptions do on land, so we may not even really understand how frequently they occur. 
 

Fascinating stuff all around. In short, this eruption was just about large enough to have some measurable downward forcing of surface temperatures, but what should’ve been the typical sulfur flux apparently reacted or leached into the ocean instead. So we’re left with a large eruption that could, warm things up? Very interested to find out when all is said and done. 
 

One last note, in one of the published bits of information I read that the huge water vapor influx may help reduce the level of atmospheric methane, which could offset the expected warming to some degree. I’m unaware of how that would work, exactly, but it’s interesting. 

Here’s a good source about volcanic cooling relative to 1991 Pinatubo:

 

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/1510/global-effects-of-mount-pinatubo

 

The mechanisms are similar for other large eruptions, though every volcano and eruption is unique and even things such as a local weather at the time can influence how climate forcings are felt later on. 
 

The most powerful “volcanic winter” of modern history is no doubt Tambora in 1815, leading to the serious climate anomalies of 1816. Highly recommend searching / reading about this if you’re intrigued. We’re talking a VEI 7 at over 100km^3 of tephra. So large it’s almost incomprehensible. And it wasn’t that long ago. Unlikely to see one again in our lifetimes, but one never knows! 
 

Chiles - Cerro Negro in South America is looking pretty scary over the past decade and especially the past several months. Large volcanic edifice with a likely evolved, silicic magma chamber that hasn’t apparently erupted in thousands of years. It’s looking like one might be coming. Might be, this stuff is tea leaves until it’s more or less imminent. But it could potentially be of the size and power that would do some interesting things to the climate, so it’s one I’m keeping an eye on. Reminds me a lot of the period before Pinatubo erupted, when they recognized the danger of the sleeping giant next door and gradually began to prepare.

It may do nothing, of course. 

You guys are likely more accurate predicting the patterns and teleconnections for next winter than anyone trying to predict this stuff lol. 

[Rhino16]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Sorry Snowman, just saw your tag. 
 

Yes, HTHH was an odd one, to say the least. On sheer explosive force alone it was unmatched back to Krakatau in the 1880’s (a moderately large VEI6 with surface cooling in the following years from volcanic aerosols). On volume, I’ve seen estimates that put it as a mid range VEI5 (5-8km^3) up to a decently sized VEI6 (~20km^3). Both, but especially the further you go toward the higher volume estimates are significant enough to produce volcanic cooling. 
 

The anomaly with HTHH is that it simply didn’t inject enough SO2 relative to its size and relative to similar eruptions, such as Pinatubo in 1991. That event put something like 40 times the amount of SO2 into the stratosphere and had a marked cooling effect for the the following several years. Some of the super storms in this time period, such as March 1993 are considered possibly linked to the eruption’s effects. 
 

There are other volcanic aerosols, but sulfur load in the stratospheric aerosol veil is the main or strongest component of volcanic cooling from a large eruption. It’s not a long duration effect (normally) as the sulfur reacts and eventually works itself out over the following couple years, largely ending the effect.  

Even stranger, HTHH put about 58,000 Olympic sized swimming pools of water vapor as high as the mesosphere, and I’m hearing the total amount added is something like 10% of the total that normally resides up in the stratosphere. That is *massive.* 

So yes, HTHH may end up having a paradoxical surface heating effect which would be the first time such an event happened in recorded modern history. After the initial large eruption the day before the final climactic blast to ~58km, the volcanic conduit was inundated with seawater at just the perfect depth to act as a pressure cooker to eject an enormous amount of water up above. It’s really very fascinating. These sorts of eruptions may not leave much of a trace in the long term records the way large ignimbrite eruptions do on land, so we may not even really understand how frequently they occur. 
 

Fascinating stuff all around. In short, this eruption was just about large enough to have some measurable downward forcing of surface temperatures, but what should’ve been the typical sulfur flux apparently reacted or leached into the ocean instead. So we’re left with a large eruption that could, warm things up? Very interested to find out when all is said and done. 
 

One last note, in one of the published bits of information I read that the huge water vapor influx may help reduce the level of atmospheric methane, which could offset the expected warming to some degree. I’m unaware of how that would work, exactly, but it’s interesting. 

Here’s a good source about volcanic cooling relative to 1991 Pinatubo:

 

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/1510/global-effects-of-mount-pinatubo

 

The mechanisms are similar for other large eruptions, though every volcano and eruption is unique and even things such as a local weather at the time can influence how climate forcings are felt later on. 
 

The most powerful “volcanic winter” of modern history is no doubt Tambora in 1815, leading to the serious climate anomalies of 1816. Highly recommend searching / reading about this if you’re intrigued. We’re talking a VEI 7 at over 100km^3 of tephra. So large it’s almost incomprehensible. And it wasn’t that long ago. Unlikely to see one again in our lifetimes, but one never knows! 
 

Chiles - Cerro Negro in South America is looking pretty scary over the past decade and especially the past several months. Large volcanic edifice with a likely evolved, silicic magma chamber that hasn’t apparently erupted in thousands of years. It’s looking like one might be coming. Might be, this stuff is tea leaves until it’s more or less imminent. But it could potentially be of the size and power that would do some interesting things to the climate, so it’s one I’m keeping an eye on. Reminds me a lot of the period before Pinatubo erupted, when they recognized the danger of the sleeping giant next door and gradually began to prepare.

It may do nothing, of course. 

You guys are likely more accurate predicting the patterns and teleconnections for next winter than anyone trying to predict this stuff lol. 

Was Tambora in 1815 the eruption that caused “The Year without a summer”? I assume that’s what you are describing as the weird effects in 1816.

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Was 1979-1992 really that bad? Not sure if you’re talking NYC north, but in the mid-atlantic we had PD1, 83 and 87. Grew up with those and had plenty of fun as a kid. Sure, we had lots of duds in between those winters but that’s par for the course around here. 

1979-1992 was a horrible stretch for the NYC area on north into New England. The biggest storm in that entire 13 year period was the Megalopolis storm during the super El Niño in ‘83. That was basically it. It was a snow drought for that area, just cold with basically nothing to show for it 

[SnowenOutThere]

13 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Here’s another very reliable forecast. The purple area was lost in resizing but reads “Much Above Snowfall”  

My sister showed me that on tic tok and I cringed, had to tell her that snowmobilers might not be the best source out there. 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

My sister showed me that on tic tok and I cringed, had to tell her that snowmobilers might not be the best source out there. 

Yeah but it shows us with "much above avg snow".  So I'm gonna clutch it at least til mid-December.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

1979-1992 was a horrible stretch for the NYC area on north into New England. The biggest storm in that entire 13 year period was the Megalopolis storm during the super El Niño in ‘83. That was basically it. It was a snow drought for that area, just cold with basically nothing to show for it 

There was a storm in December 1981 that dropped more than the Megalopolis storm in some areas of eastern MA, but you are right for the most part. The storms near the end of March 1984 and in April 1982 were also very impressive.

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see much evidence of a strong la nina peak.....may make moderate early on before weakening by winter.

Weren't you in favor of el nino not even a month ago?

I doubt a strong peak too, however, I can easily see this thing peak moderate come December. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, snowman19 said:

I doubt a strong peak too, however, I can easily see this thing peak moderate come December. 

 

My guess is that it peaks earlier than that....maybe Novie.

[snowman19]

On 8/3/2022 at 1:17 PM, IronTy said:

Bastardi is hinting toward a 1954-55 type winter. You'll be shocked to know it's colder than average.  

Lock it in. 

Just read on twitter, he’s hyping 1964-1965 too……1954-1955, 1964-1965….and I’m sure 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 next….let’s just find the east coast’s coldest and snowiest official La Niña winters and hype them as being “great analogs” and “perfect matches” to this year. Snake oil salesman. JB is no longer taken seriously by anyone, his game is old. It’s gotten to the point where it’s embarrassing and he should retire. It’s a mockery of meteorology 

[StormchaserChuck!]

[StormchaserChuck!]

This is interesting. 

We might be "due" for a non- -PNA February. (I still think it will be -PNA Feb)

[StormchaserChuck!]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see much evidence of a strong la nina peak.....may make moderate early on before weakening by winter.

Weren't you in favor of el nino not even a month ago?

Does anybody see my posts besides you? 

I think we are heading for a Moderate-Strong La Nina. 3 years Nina's: 54-56, 73-76, 98-00. (19,25,*24 years apart)*-mathemtical anomalies. 

[FPizz]

6 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Does anybody see my posts besides you? 

I think we are heading for a Moderate-Strong La Nina. 3 years Nina's: 54-56, 73-76, 98-00. (19,25,*24 years apart)*-mathemtical anomalies. 

We see them.  For me, half the time I can't understand them, lol

[roardog]

9 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Does anybody see my posts besides you? 

I think we are heading for a Moderate-Strong La Nina. 3 years Nina's: 54-56, 73-76, 98-00. (19,25,*24 years apart)*-mathemtical anomalies. 

2 months ago you said strong Nino. lol

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, roardog said:

2 months ago you said strong Nino. lol

In his defense, a “pro” met (I won’t mention JB’s name) has been predicting a Modoki El Niño for the past 2 years in a row. This year, he got the Modoki part right but it’s just not an El Niño

[IronTy]

10 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Does anybody see my posts besides you? 

I think we are heading for a Moderate-Strong La Nina. 3 years Nina's: 54-56, 73-76, 98-00. (19,25,*24 years apart)*-mathemtical anomalies. 

You don't actually post any theory behind the maps so it's hard to get excited about them.  I mean I could post up the same maps....tell us what going on behind the scenes and what it means and then maybe ppl would start engaging with you more.  

[thunderbolt]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

In his defense, a “pro” met (I won’t mention JB’s name) has been predicting a Modoki El Niño for the past 2 years in a row. This year, he got the Modoki part right but it’s just not an El Niño

This is not about JB

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 hours ago, roardog said:

2 months ago you said strong Nino. lol

Been saying -PNA since before the dinosaur demise

[nw baltimore wx]

2 hours ago, IronTy said:

You don't actually post any theory behind the maps so it's hard to get excited about them.  I mean I could post up the same maps....tell us what going on behind the scenes and what it means and then maybe ppl would start engaging with you more.  

I think @StormchaserChuck! assumes we know what he means. The folks from the original board probably do. Back then Chuck was doing some “research” and I remember him being very-well respected.  Not that he isn’t now in some circles, but for a clown like me, I would welcome some dumbing-down rhetoric in his posts. Particularly when he posts a lot of maps without explanation.

[aldie 22]

14 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Does anybody see my posts besides you? 

I think we are heading for a Moderate-Strong La Nina. 3 years Nina's: 54-56, 73-76, 98-00. (19,25,*24 years apart)*-mathemtical anomalies. 

No

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Been saying -PNA since before the dinosaur demise

That's only  6000yrs ago.  

[raindancewx]

My objective local top matches by month for precipitation and highs locally have some absolutely savage cold shots into the Southwest. Check out the days from Nov-Feb that are at least 10F below average in (). If you use 1938 as an example, the 25 severe cold days are -15 average departures say, for 25/120 days. So it needs to be like +4 all the remaining days just to hit average temperatures.

January to July 1938-39 (25), 1943-44 (19), 1984-85 (16), 1996-97 (12), 2000-01 (13), 2020-21 (8) are objective best non-El Nino matches for 2022. I think 1970-71, which has the mother of Southwest cold snaps also showed up in the top six La Nina matches, mainly for how similar its precipitation pattern is, it's not too close for temperatures. Pretty sure 1996 was the top precipitation match, although we had 9 inches of snow here in Feb-Mar in 2022, basically all the precipitation that fell was snow not rain those months.

1996

0.17

0.19

0.02

0.00

0.02

2.86

1.03

1.54

1.45

1.52

0.95

0.00

1970

0.00

0.27

0.42

0.05

0.33

0.40

1.22

2.24

0.79

0.25

0.08

0.23

2022

0.03

0.27

0.55

0.00

0.00

2.38

1.01

tbd..

tbd..

tbd..

tbd..

tbd..

Have not seen 1970 as a match on this type of test since I've observed weather locally. January 1971 isn't even below average really locally for highs. But that -17F is the coldest it's been in Albuquerque on record, since at least January 1892. Not sure how I'd feel about a January with close to 90 degrees in temperature variation. Last year, my top local match for Jan-Sept on temps and precip was 1950, which ended up being a decent match nationally to the pattern (very hot/dry SW, until a severely cold Feb too).

1971-01-01	52	19	35.5	-0.5	29	0	0.00	0.0	0
1971-01-02	46	23	34.5	-1.5	30	0	0.00	0.0	0
1971-01-03	33	11	22.0	-14.1	43	0	0.26	3.0	1
1971-01-04	13	-4	4.5	-31.7	60	0	0.01	T	3
1971-01-05	8	-15	-3.5	-39.7	68	0	0.00	0.0	1
1971-01-06	6	-12	-3.0	-39.3	68	0	0.00	0.0	1
1971-01-07	10	-17	-3.5	-39.9	68	0	0.00	0.0	1
1971-01-08	22	-8	7.0	-29.5	58	0	0.00	0.0	1
1971-01-09	34	2	18.0	-18.6	47	0	0.00	0.0	1
1971-01-10	44	16	30.0	-6.7	35	0	0.00	0.0	1
1971-01-11	45	17	31.0	-5.8	34	0	0.00	0.0	T
1971-01-12	52	23	37.5	0.6	27	0	0.00	0.0	T
1971-01-13	52	25	38.5	1.5	26	0	0.00	0.0	T
1971-01-14	50	24	37.0	-0.1	28	0	0.00	0.0	0
1971-01-15	52	21	36.5	-0.7	28	0	0.00	0.0	0
1971-01-16	57	22	39.5	2.2	25	0	0.00	0.0	0
1971-01-17	56	29	42.5	5.1	22	0	0.00	0.0	0
1971-01-18	64	33	48.5	11.0	16	0	0.00	0.0	0
1971-01-19	60	29	44.5	6.8	20	0	0.00	0.0	0
1971-01-20	63	29	46.0	8.2	19	0	0.00	0.0	0
1971-01-21	68	40	54.0	16.1	11	0	0.00	0.0	0
1971-01-22	59	30	44.5	6.5	20	0	0.00	0.0	0
1971-01-23	56	21	38.5	0.4	26	0	0.00	0.0	0
1971-01-24	51	19	35.0	-3.3	30	0	0.00	0.0	0
1971-01-25	58	21	39.5	1.1	25	0	0.00	0.0	0
1971-01-26	64	27	45.5	7.0	19	0	0.00	0.0	0
1971-01-27	61	23	42.0	3.3	23	0	0.00	0.0	0
1971-01-28	60	34	47.0	8.2	18	0	0.00	0.0	0
1971-01-29	63	29	46.0	7.1	19	0	0.00	0.0	0
1971-01-30	65	34	49.5	10.4	15	0	0.00	0.0	0
1971-01-31	69	42	55.5	16.3	9	0	0.00	0.0	0

May-July nationally was a very good match to 2011/2020 as a blend for temperatures. But it's much closer to 2020, with the WPO sign flipped at the upper levels globally even though 2011 is better for the US. 2020/2011 as a blend would be a nice December for me.

[StormchaserChuck!]

12 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I think @StormchaserChuck! assumes we know what he means. The folks from the original board probably do. Back then Chuck was doing some “research” and I remember him being very-well respected.  Not that he isn’t now in some circles, but for a clown like me, I would welcome some dumbing-down rhetoric in his posts. Particularly when he posts a lot of maps without explanation.

Yeah, I'm mostly referring to my previous researches. Hard to not be -PNA this Winter, and +NAO signal is now emerging

[StormchaserChuck!]

I made this point about last Winter. 

[yoda]

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

 

A little more detail: 

 

[snowman19]

 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A little more detail: 

 

In other words...don't waste your time folks, lol

[CAPE]

CFS is on one of its good runs lately. There's hope!!

[Maestrobjwa]

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

CFS is on one of its good runs lately. There's hope!!

I just don't get it...has this model or that sip-from a can...I mean CanSips-any actual good use? (Serious question)