Winter 2022-23

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Hey Ray.  How goes it.? Jerry Still a problem in NE???!
 

We’ve gotten about 5 double hit analogs and 3 are good, one so so, one bad. 

Jerry is da man haha. He and Steve run our forums.

I think I am probably going to fall into the so-so camp for you guys, but its early....

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jerry is da man haha. He and Steve run our forums.

I think I am probably going to fall into the so-so camp for you guys, but its early....

Jerry rose to power with my help!!!

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 I'm just messing with you, but most of your posts do tend to have a theme....never implied that you don't know your stuff, though.

Not sure what the QBO was doing in 50-51 but this match is pretty uncanny, also, not sure if it was a 3rd year La Niña though. And I really don’t like using analogs from that long ago because we are in a completely, totally different climate state now than we were back then and AGW is accelerating. But: 

 

[IUsedToHateCold]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not sure what the QBO was doing in 50-51 but this match is pretty uncanny, also, not sure if it was a 3rd year La Niña though. And I really don’t like using analogs from that long ago because we are in a completely, totally different climate state now than we were back then and AGW is accelerating. But: 

 

The cold pool in the GOA is definitely a difference, even if the rest is a good match.

50-51 was a lackluster year for Baltimore. 6.2 inches for the season. 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

The cold pool in the GOA is definitely a difference, even if the rest is a good match.

50-51 was a lackluster year for Baltimore. 6.2 inches for the season. 

 

The 50s in general were lackluster for snow in general until ya got to 58'...Not sure why! (I'll take one guess that there were probably more ninas that decade, lol)

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Not sure what the QBO was doing in 50-51 but this match is pretty uncanny, also, not sure if it was a 3rd year La Niña though. And I really don’t like using analogs from that long ago because we are in a completely, totally different climate state now than we were back then and AGW is accelerating. But: 

 

You can use analogs from back then...you just need to remain mindful of the fact that the climate has changed.

[WxUSAF]

A 50-51 winter modified for 2022-23 = yikes

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

A 50-51 winter modified for 2022-23 = yikes

There have been plenty of low single-digit snows in the area going back over 100 years, so a 10.5" winter in DC from 70 years ago might not be significantly different today. Or it could be, but there's no reason to assume that it would.

[IronTy]

Bastardi is hinting toward a 1954-55 type winter. You'll be shocked to know it's colder than average.  

Lock it in. 

[mattie g]

26 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Bastardi is hinting toward a 1954-55 type winter. You'll be shocked to know it's colder than average.  

Lock it in. 

6.6" of snow at DCA. Bring it!

[IronTy]

58 minutes ago, mattie g said:

6.6" of snow at DCA. Bring it!

Must've been dry, cold and windy. 

[Eskimo Joe]

8 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

A 50-51 winter modified for 2022-23 = yikes

Yikes indeed. Ji would be found hanging from the rafters on Halloween morning.

[Weather Will]

WB August 1 Canadian long range says we will be tracking hurricanes this winter.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB August 1 Canadian long range says we will be tracking hurricanes this winter.

That’s not what it says. Map reading must be a difficult endeavor.

[WxUSAF]

Good news! 

 

[nw baltimore wx]

50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Good news! 

 

Here’s another very reliable forecast. The purple area was lost in resizing but reads “Much Above Snowfall”  

[snowman19]

14 hours ago, IronTy said:

Bastardi is hinting toward a 1954-55 type winter. You'll be shocked to know it's colder than average.  

Lock it in. 

By November his main analogs will be 1995-1996 and 2010-2011. He uses them everytime there’s a La Niña. I can’t believe people actually pay money to read that utter quack

[snowman19]

19 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

A 50-51 winter modified for 2022-23 = yikes

The 40’s-50’s winters were great out west, the 60’s-70’s winters were epic for the east coast, then came 1979-1992, which was probably the worst 13 year period in history for snow on the east coast, even up in the NYC metro and New England….

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The 40’s-50’s winters were great out west, the 60’s-70’s winters were epic for the east coast, then came 1979-1992, which was probably the worst 13 year period in history for snow on the east coast, even up in the NYC metro and New England….

Was 1979-1992 really that bad? Not sure if you’re talking NYC north, but in the mid-atlantic we had PD1, 83 and 87. Grew up with those and had plenty of fun as a kid. Sure, we had lots of duds in between those winters but that’s par for the course around here. 

[Rtd208]

10 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Good news! 

 

Stay safe.

[aldie 22]

10 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Good news! 

 

Wait are we in the Shivery, wet and slushy color or the unseasonably cold snowy color?

[osfan24]

I can certainly throw in the towel on the upcoming winter if next winter will be a blockbuster.

[WxUSAF]

59 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Wait are we in the Shivery, wet and slushy color or the unseasonably cold snowy color?

Significant shivers I think, so we got that going on.

[StormchaserChuck!]

I don't think it will be the best since 2016. We are probably going into a Moderate-Strong La Nina and January, February have a -PNA signal. We could eek out a big snowstorm or 2, but I think weak-STJ, SE High pressure is the trend, again. 

I posted in the SNE Winter threat that +QBO/La Nina is -NAO, and the signal is like +100-150dm. lol. please get my posts off of review. WXUSAFAA deleted a Winter research post last year, that was a pretty good time pure scientific research, had my number tally and all. 

[GramaxRefugee]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Was 1979-1992 really that bad? Not sure if you’re talking NYC north, but in the mid-atlantic we had PD1, 83 and 87. Grew up with those and had plenty of fun as a kid. Sure, we had lots of duds in between those winters but that’s par for the course around here. 

...plus a fair amount of extreme cold. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB August 1 Canadian long range says we will be tracking hurricanes this winter.

That looks like a gradient pattern to me, which could be shitty for you guys.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s not what it says. Map reading must be a difficult endeavor.

There would be plenty of cold available in Canada with that look....its not a disaster. Its just not a perfect pattern, so there would often be precip type issues.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Was 1979-1992 really that bad? Not sure if you’re talking NYC north, but in the mid-atlantic we had PD1, 83 and 87. Grew up with those and had plenty of fun as a kid. Sure, we had lots of duds in between those winters but that’s par for the course around here. 

81-82 and 86-87 were good....82-83 was okay snowwise largely bc of the Megalopolis storm.

87-88 wasn't a total trainwreck up here...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I don't think it will be the best since 2016. We are probably going into a Moderate-Strong La Nina and January, February have a -PNA signal. We could eek out a big snowstorm or 2, but I think weak-STJ, SE High pressure is the trend, again. 

I posted in the SNE Winter threat that +QBO/La Nina is -NAO, and the signal is like +100-150dm. lol. please get my posts off of review. WXUSAFAA deleted a Winter research post last year, that was a pretty good time pure scientific research, had my number tally and all. 

I don't see much evidence of a strong la nina peak.....may make moderate early on before weakening by winter.

Weren't you in favor of el nino not even a month ago?

[Volcanic Winter]

On 7/31/2022 at 4:18 PM, snowman19 said:

@Volcanic Winter The volcanic aspect of this coming winter: 

 

Sorry Snowman, just saw your tag. 
 

Yes, HTHH was an odd one, to say the least. On sheer explosive force alone it was unmatched back to Krakatau in the 1880’s (a moderately large VEI6 with surface cooling in the following years from volcanic aerosols). On volume, I’ve seen estimates that put it as a mid range VEI5 (5-8km^3) up to a decently sized VEI6 (~20km^3). Both, but especially the further you go toward the higher volume estimates are significant enough to produce volcanic cooling. 
 

The anomaly with HTHH is that it simply didn’t inject enough SO2 relative to its size and relative to similar eruptions, such as Pinatubo in 1991. That event put something like 40 times the amount of SO2 into the stratosphere and had a marked cooling effect for the the following several years. Some of the super storms in this time period, such as March 1993 are considered possibly linked to the eruption’s effects. 
 

There are other volcanic aerosols, but sulfur load in the stratospheric aerosol veil is the main or strongest component of volcanic cooling from a large eruption. It’s not a long duration effect (normally) as the sulfur reacts and eventually works itself out over the following couple years, largely ending the effect.  

Even stranger, HTHH put about 58,000 Olympic sized swimming pools of water vapor as high as the mesosphere, and I’m hearing the total amount added is something like 10% of the total that normally resides up in the stratosphere. That is *massive.* 

So yes, HTHH may end up having a paradoxical surface heating effect which would be the first time such an event happened in recorded modern history. After the initial large eruption the day before the final climactic blast to ~58km, the volcanic conduit was inundated with seawater at just the perfect depth to act as a pressure cooker to eject an enormous amount of water up above. It’s really very fascinating. These sorts of eruptions may not leave much of a trace in the long term records the way large ignimbrite eruptions do on land, so we may not even really understand how frequently they occur. 
 

Fascinating stuff all around. In short, this eruption was just about large enough to have some measurable downward forcing of surface temperatures, but what should’ve been the typical sulfur flux apparently reacted or leached into the ocean instead. So we’re left with a large eruption that could, warm things up? Very interested to find out when all is said and done. 
 

One last note, in one of the published bits of information I read that the huge water vapor influx may help reduce the level of atmospheric methane, which could offset the expected warming to some degree. I’m unaware of how that would work, exactly, but it’s interesting. 

Here’s a good source about volcanic cooling relative to 1991 Pinatubo:

 

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/1510/global-effects-of-mount-pinatubo

 

The mechanisms are similar for other large eruptions, though every volcano and eruption is unique and even things such as a local weather at the time can influence how climate forcings are felt later on. 
 

The most powerful “volcanic winter” of modern history is no doubt Tambora in 1815, leading to the serious climate anomalies of 1816. Highly recommend searching / reading about this if you’re intrigued. We’re talking a VEI 7 at over 100km^3 of tephra. So large it’s almost incomprehensible. And it wasn’t that long ago. Unlikely to see one again in our lifetimes, but one never knows! 
 

Chiles - Cerro Negro in South America is looking pretty scary over the past decade and especially the past several months. Large volcanic edifice with a likely evolved, silicic magma chamber that hasn’t apparently erupted in thousands of years. It’s looking like one might be coming. Might be, this stuff is tea leaves until it’s more or less imminent. But it could potentially be of the size and power that would do some interesting things to the climate, so it’s one I’m keeping an eye on. Reminds me a lot of the period before Pinatubo erupted, when they recognized the danger of the sleeping giant next door and gradually began to prepare.

It may do nothing, of course. 

You guys are likely more accurate predicting the patterns and teleconnections for next winter than anyone trying to predict this stuff lol.