WEATHER53 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree that folks a bit overly pessimistic. While I don't see anything in the early going that implies the second incarnate of Snowmageddon is on the horizon, nor do I see anything particularly horrendous, either. Hey Ray. How goes it.? Jerry Still a problem in NE???! We’ve gotten about 5 double hit analogs and 3 are good, one so so, one bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Hey Ray. How goes it.? Jerry Still a problem in NE???! We’ve gotten about 5 double hit analogs and 3 are good, one so so, one bad. Jerry is da man haha. He and Steve run our forums. I think I am probably going to fall into the so-so camp for you guys, but its early.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Jerry is da man haha. He and Steve run our forums. I think I am probably going to fall into the so-so camp for you guys, but its early.... Jerry rose to power with my help!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm just messing with you, but most of your posts do tend to have a theme....never implied that you don't know your stuff, though. Not sure what the QBO was doing in 50-51 but this match is pretty uncanny, also, not sure if it was a 3rd year La Niña though. And I really don’t like using analogs from that long ago because we are in a completely, totally different climate state now than we were back then and AGW is accelerating. But: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 22 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Not sure what the QBO was doing in 50-51 but this match is pretty uncanny, also, not sure if it was a 3rd year La Niña though. And I really don’t like using analogs from that long ago because we are in a completely, totally different climate state now than we were back then and AGW is accelerating. But: The cold pool in the GOA is definitely a difference, even if the rest is a good match. 50-51 was a lackluster year for Baltimore. 6.2 inches for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 2 hours ago, IUsedToHateCold said: The cold pool in the GOA is definitely a difference, even if the rest is a good match. 50-51 was a lackluster year for Baltimore. 6.2 inches for the season. The 50s in general were lackluster for snow in general until ya got to 58'...Not sure why! (I'll take one guess that there were probably more ninas that decade, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 16 hours ago, snowman19 said: Not sure what the QBO was doing in 50-51 but this match is pretty uncanny, also, not sure if it was a 3rd year La Niña though. And I really don’t like using analogs from that long ago because we are in a completely, totally different climate state now than we were back then and AGW is accelerating. But: You can use analogs from back then...you just need to remain mindful of the fact that the climate has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 A 50-51 winter modified for 2022-23 = yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: A 50-51 winter modified for 2022-23 = yikes There have been plenty of low single-digit snows in the area going back over 100 years, so a 10.5" winter in DC from 70 years ago might not be significantly different today. Or it could be, but there's no reason to assume that it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 Bastardi is hinting toward a 1954-55 type winter. You'll be shocked to know it's colder than average. Lock it in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 26 minutes ago, IronTy said: Bastardi is hinting toward a 1954-55 type winter. You'll be shocked to know it's colder than average. Lock it in. 6.6" of snow at DCA. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 58 minutes ago, mattie g said: 6.6" of snow at DCA. Bring it! Must've been dry, cold and windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 8 hours ago, WxUSAF said: A 50-51 winter modified for 2022-23 = yikes Yikes indeed. Ji would be found hanging from the rafters on Halloween morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 WB August 1 Canadian long range says we will be tracking hurricanes this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB August 1 Canadian long range says we will be tracking hurricanes this winter. That’s not what it says. Map reading must be a difficult endeavor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 Good news! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Good news! Here’s another very reliable forecast. The purple area was lost in resizing but reads “Much Above Snowfall” 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 14 hours ago, IronTy said: Bastardi is hinting toward a 1954-55 type winter. You'll be shocked to know it's colder than average. Lock it in. By November his main analogs will be 1995-1996 and 2010-2011. He uses them everytime there’s a La Niña. I can’t believe people actually pay money to read that utter quack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 19 hours ago, WxUSAF said: A 50-51 winter modified for 2022-23 = yikes The 40’s-50’s winters were great out west, the 60’s-70’s winters were epic for the east coast, then came 1979-1992, which was probably the worst 13 year period in history for snow on the east coast, even up in the NYC metro and New England…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The 40’s-50’s winters were great out west, the 60’s-70’s winters were epic for the east coast, then came 1979-1992, which was probably the worst 13 year period in history for snow on the east coast, even up in the NYC metro and New England…. Was 1979-1992 really that bad? Not sure if you’re talking NYC north, but in the mid-atlantic we had PD1, 83 and 87. Grew up with those and had plenty of fun as a kid. Sure, we had lots of duds in between those winters but that’s par for the course around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 10 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Good news! Stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 10 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Good news! Wait are we in the Shivery, wet and slushy color or the unseasonably cold snowy color? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 I can certainly throw in the towel on the upcoming winter if next winter will be a blockbuster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 59 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Wait are we in the Shivery, wet and slushy color or the unseasonably cold snowy color? Significant shivers I think, so we got that going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 I don't think it will be the best since 2016. We are probably going into a Moderate-Strong La Nina and January, February have a -PNA signal. We could eek out a big snowstorm or 2, but I think weak-STJ, SE High pressure is the trend, again. I posted in the SNE Winter threat that +QBO/La Nina is -NAO, and the signal is like +100-150dm. lol. please get my posts off of review. WXUSAFAA deleted a Winter research post last year, that was a pretty good time pure scientific research, had my number tally and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Was 1979-1992 really that bad? Not sure if you’re talking NYC north, but in the mid-atlantic we had PD1, 83 and 87. Grew up with those and had plenty of fun as a kid. Sure, we had lots of duds in between those winters but that’s par for the course around here. ...plus a fair amount of extreme cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 14 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB August 1 Canadian long range says we will be tracking hurricanes this winter. That looks like a gradient pattern to me, which could be shitty for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 13 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s not what it says. Map reading must be a difficult endeavor. There would be plenty of cold available in Canada with that look....its not a disaster. Its just not a perfect pattern, so there would often be precip type issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 2 hours ago, Terpeast said: Was 1979-1992 really that bad? Not sure if you’re talking NYC north, but in the mid-atlantic we had PD1, 83 and 87. Grew up with those and had plenty of fun as a kid. Sure, we had lots of duds in between those winters but that’s par for the course around here. 81-82 and 86-87 were good....82-83 was okay snowwise largely bc of the Megalopolis storm. 87-88 wasn't a total trainwreck up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: I don't think it will be the best since 2016. We are probably going into a Moderate-Strong La Nina and January, February have a -PNA signal. We could eek out a big snowstorm or 2, but I think weak-STJ, SE High pressure is the trend, again. I posted in the SNE Winter threat that +QBO/La Nina is -NAO, and the signal is like +100-150dm. lol. please get my posts off of review. WXUSAFAA deleted a Winter research post last year, that was a pretty good time pure scientific research, had my number tally and all. I don't see much evidence of a strong la nina peak.....may make moderate early on before weakening by winter. Weren't you in favor of el nino not even a month ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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