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Winter 2022-23


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1 hour ago, thunderbolt said:

It’s OK I’m sure if there were cities on the East Coast at 5000 feet altitude be a lot different story but oh well it is what it is I’m enjoying the warm weather out golfing and you enjoy your Dustings

What is the point of your posts? I do enjoy weather. Why can't you?

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Warm water north of Australia, the unusual activity of caterpillars, and a high pitched noise that only I can hear, all combine with the dew point at Coral Harbour and the position of Neptune to prove almost beyond doubt that this winter will be either average or not.

Average winters can stress out climate scientists and many others in media who may run out of stories and turn to covering actual news. One spokesperson who wished to remain anonymous told me that "the last average winter, 2016-17, led to severe depression of many in those lines of work, as well as a huge die off of coastal hugging striped crabs which depend on variable weather to survive."

What can one expect in an average winter? Average weather. Day after day after day of temperatures not far from normal, as well as drizzly mixtures of sleet and whatever else can (and will) fall at certain elevations. How can you avoid this outcome? Move away from certain elevations, either go higher for snow, or lower for rain. This was the knowledge of the elders of the first people to populate the land, but it has been lost in a haze of phones that drive cars and things that vibrate to open doors. Those are, by the way, changing our weather at an alarming rate. Since the weather only changed around the time of the i-phone, it is reasonable to assume that i-phones are controlling the weather. At least, this is the working assumption of the Institute for Advanced Studies of Stuff You Cannot Understand (IASSYCU) located in Fromage Falls, just outside Canada's capital city, Honkerville. 

If you would like more information, please contact Gerard E. Neverin at IASSYCU or phone anyone at random and ask them what they think.  

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Are you not entertained? Anyway what I really expect is a fairly normal winter for your region with perhaps one good wintry spell and a brief snow covering from one big storm, if you're thinking 2015-16 analogue, sort of like that only I don't think this December will be anywhere near as warm as Dec 2015, in fact it could be where the wintry spell happens. A better analogue might be 1963-64. 

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2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

.... A better analogue might be 1963-64. 

What?! You mean the winter with 51.8" of snow at BWI? :D

Strangely though; if NOAA data is to be believed, the same winter had 33.6" at DCA.  Significant difference, even for DCA.

Anyway, I don't see 63-64 working out for us.

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8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

And just like that all the talk of GOA and NA west coast SSTs on twitter stopped lol cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

the bigger story here is the strength of the La Niña. There is still quite a bit of spread on the models about how strong the Nina will get, and it looks like the more aggressive models have the right idea looking at this. People who were talking about the possibility of a +PDO likely anticipated that the Nina would be weak, but that beast we currently have in the Pacific Ocean is anything but weak. The Nina is already stronger than last years Nina at this stage and has intensified over the past couple months. 
 

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2 hours ago, George001 said:

the bigger story here is the strength of the La Niña. There is still quite a bit of spread on the models about how strong the Nina will get, and it looks like the more aggressive models have the right idea looking at this. People who were talking about the possibility of a +PDO likely anticipated that the Nina would be weak, but that beast we currently have in the Pacific Ocean is anything but weak. The Nina is already stronger than last years Nina at this stage and has intensified over the past couple months. 
 

Exactly. The other area's in the PAC are not " out of hand" so to speak. The GOA has cooled but, you still have a large warmer area just south of there and the small cooler area off the west coast , is just that, small. 

        The Nina area is expansive. Hopefully we get some huge volcanic eruptions in the GOA . Wouldn't snowman19 just love that. 

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2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Jet stream is running more west->east vs south/north orientation(anomalies). 30-60N is the mass of the whole cold air mass (13-14,14-15)

Chances are with that pattern any storm that comes along will pass very close by and will drag up the warm air from the south and this pattern screams cold rains and temps in the 40's unless the entire pattern propagates east off the coast. 

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