midatlanticweather Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 If.. only... the blocky look can continue.. all winter 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 @40/70 BenchmarkThis is what we spoke of a couple of weeks ago….what you don’t want to see come winter. Very persistent Eastern Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent forcing. IMO keep a very close eye on this going into November and see what happens….if this is where the main forcing is going to be this winter, we have a problem: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 On 10/5/2022 at 5:12 PM, midatlanticweather said: Negative NAO for Dec, Jan, and Mar, neutral for Feb. If that’s right the mild and snowless Jan and Feb calls are going to bust big time. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Long term forecast is such horseshit. In one tweet winter is gonna be a bust but in the next tweet it's gonna be epic for the eastern US. Friggen A, I could do that job. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 21 hours ago, Heisy said: This was the first event I experienced after joining the wx community. About a week or two prior there was a massive cold front and blocking formed. Dec 30 2000 was originally a Miller A HECS on the models in the medium to long range, then it morphed into the Miller B it became. I remember texting Ji at around 3am the day of the event and him saying he couldn’t see a cloud in the sky which definitely didn’t bode well lmao. Yeah. Thats reason I remembered and mentioned it above. It was a classic screwjob for us. And is one of the main MillerB's I use every winter to remind myself that Miller B's suck here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. Thats reason I remembered and mentioned it above. It was a classic screwjob for us. And is one of the main MillerB's I use every winter to remind myself that Miller B's suck here. Do ya really need a reminder? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 On 9/29/2022 at 6:58 PM, raindancewx said: As promised. Not a bad call on my end from June - I'm sure everyone else expected near record early October rains in the Southwest in a La Nina right? Especially with a lot more coming still? I've been very busy lately, but I did upload my winter forecast today if anyone is curious. https://t.co/2IM4n7Vt5J Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 1 hour ago, IronTy said: Long term forecast is such horseshit. In one tweet winter is gonna be a bust but in the next tweet it's gonna be epic for the eastern US. Friggen A, I could do that job. Thing is for our area if you go slightly below average with your forecast you are golden 80% of the time. Our numbers are so skewed by big noreasters in the winters that we get them that going with an 80% fail rate is good science. And I am being serious. Forecasting here is an absolute crap shoot. But 80% of the time you will be right. Because we wont get a monster coastal. I will say when we get stalled Mid Atlantic storms it is game on though. We get buried as well or better than anyone else when the conditions are right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 51 minutes ago, raindancewx said: Not a bad call on my end from June - I'm sure everyone else expected near record early October rains in the Southwest in a La Nina right? Especially with a lot more coming still? I've been very busy lately, but I did upload my winter forecast today if anyone is curious. https://t.co/2IM4n7Vt5J Let me guess I don’t even have to read it you’re predicting a less snowy year for the northeast and less cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 Yup. Although some areas that don't get much snow should fluke their way to well above totals this year. Going to be a lot of moisture around this winter. Just need one get setup in those spots, and it's easier with elevation. I mean, some of you must have noticed by now that October looks a bit like 2011 nationally right? I'm not a big fan of that year because it has very different precipitation tendencies to this year - but it has been decent to a strong match almost every month for like 6-8 months now. October 1995/2004 as a blend is also a near opposite to how Oct 2022 looked on the CFS/Canadian, but we'll see soon enough if any of my thoughts are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 So tough to get a little blue anywhere at h5 on the climate models these days. Ofc this is a 3month mean. The general idea is pretty decent. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 Still a very well coupled La Niña: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 The only thing I'll say is that at this point, it's nice to not be torching in the mid 80s every day and humid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 What was the earliest measured snow at the major airports? I see Tony Pann saying it was today in 1979 (incidentally, I lived in Richmond VA at the time, and we saw flakes on October 10th that year as well) What about DC and Dulles? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 8 hours ago, snowman19 said: Still a very well coupled La Niña: Was Winter 2010-11 or 95-96 well coupled ? Pronounced blocking threw those Nina's off kilter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 Ha - this guy likes the looks! The La Nina mentioned above, and other factors have me less enthused! 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 The signs for a possible pattern change by November are finally starting to show up. For the 1st time in months, the models are starting to breakdown the extremely persistent +PNA ridge that has been in place since August 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 45 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The signs for a possible pattern change by November are finally starting to show up. For the 1st time in months, the models are starting to breakdown the extremely persistent +PNA ridge that has been in place since August I'm curious...are you a snow miser or a heat miser? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 51 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The signs for a possible pattern change by November are finally starting to show up. For the 1st time in months, the models are starting to breakdown the extremely persistent +PNA ridge that has been in place since August What do you mean the first time in months it was just negative back in September Unless I’m reading the chart wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 1 minute ago, thunderbolt said: What do you mean the first time in months it was just negative back in September Unless I’m reading the chart wrong The overwhelming majority of the time it has been very positive since August, minus a few very few brief bouts of negative 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The signs for a possible pattern change by November are finally starting to show up. For the 1st time in months, the models are starting to breakdown the extremely persistent +PNA ridge that has been in place since August Signs a month from now lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The overwhelming majority of the time it has been very positive since August, minus a few very few brief bouts of negative Well the way you applied it it’s never been negative it’s always been positive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 On 10/8/2022 at 6:44 PM, CAPE said: So tough to get a little blue anywhere at h5 on the climate models these days. Ofc this is a 3month mean. The general idea is pretty decent. Does any of that have to do with that using 1984-2009 Climatology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 42 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Signs a month from now lol Reading comprehension isn’t your strong point. By November. If you actually took the time to look at the chart, the change begins towards the end of this month, we are already nearly at mid-October 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 Gonna see two things in the Mid Atlantic this winter: Lots of deep troughs, and an increasingly active southern jet stream. Stock up NOW on whatever enables you to stay up for days on end analyzing model runs. You're gonna need it. Mid Atlantic is going to get buried in snow alive. You'll be crawlin' out of your second story windows, the snowpack will get so deep. DT is gonna be WOOF'n a LOT, and Bob Chill is gonna need a much bigger FACE. 2 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 16 hours ago, snowman19 said: Reading comprehension isn’t your strong point. By November. If you actually took the time to look at the chart, the change begins towards the end of this month, we are already nearly at mid-October My reading comp isn't perfect by any means, but the post seems to be implying reason for pause with respect to wholesale changes, as guidance has been exhibiting a -PNA bias and the NAO looks to dip decidedly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 On 10/9/2022 at 3:39 PM, Daniel Boone said: Was Winter 2010-11 or 95-96 well coupled ? Pronounced blocking threw those Nina's off kilter. 95-96 was pretty weakly coupled, but 2010-2011 is a prime example of a powerful and strongly coupled la nina that worked out well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 On 10/8/2022 at 6:44 PM, CAPE said: So tough to get a little blue anywhere at h5 on the climate models these days. Ofc this is a 3month mean. The general idea is pretty decent. I'd take my chances with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 With the obvious caveats (It's October and ssts can and will change, other things such as MJO etc. can drive the winter pattern more than other factors, etc.) aside, I don't particularly hate the current SST anomaly configuration in the northeastern Pacific (165W-120W). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 I hate that Hadley Cell expansion as a long term pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now