WinterWxLuvr Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 I need more colorful maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: @40/70 BenchmarkAre you also seeing a possible warm to very warm (torch?) November? Some of the models are showing a shift to eastern IO forcing starting the end of this month and in November I don't know. Haven't looked. It wouldn't suprise me since September and October look to end up fairly cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 14 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I need more colorful maps. At least I acknowledge that you saw the post. I thought it was interesting that there is really no way above average in the mix, and it's a pretty diverse/random dataset. Seems to be a strong consensus for average to slightly below average Winter temps following EC trough/significantly below average Sept 23-Oct 10 (what I thought when I was thinking in it- outside). It has been a drier La Nina STJ though. I wouldn't be surprised if we have near average snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 New edition of CanSIPS fwiw. The advertised h5 pattern for Dec and Jan would be acceptable. Potentially active look for Jan. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 Almost like EL Nino sharp rise in AAM. Anybody Has access to GWO phase 6-7 composites Oct/Nov? Per Julius S tweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 January looks dryish on that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Given how chilly it’s been lately, I almost want an above normal November to give the pattern a chance to reset and give us BN Dec-Jan 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: January looks dryish on that... Yea I was going to say, not really sure how that looks stormy and wet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 The big la nina pac ridge very prominent. Decent Greenland blocking. If there was a y semblance of a southern stream that would be a pretty good setup. Also, shift that pac ridge east and quite possibly some northern stream action could produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 47 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: The big la nina pac ridge very prominent. Decent Greenland blocking. If there was a y semblance of a southern stream that would be a pretty good setup. Also, shift that pac ridge east and quite possibly some northern stream action could produce. As much as I wanna say that doesn't work well around here...I guess small NS events count as producing. P.S. Ya like "classic" music or "classical" music? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 11 hours ago, Terpeast said: Given how chilly it’s been lately, I almost want an above normal November to give the pattern a chance to reset and give us BN Dec-Jan 100% agreed. Plenty of talk of a quite warm November on the Mid-Atlantic, which, assuming the source region in Canada doesn't torch, could be a good thing in setting up a possible colder period into December-January, as you said. In my opinion, November is a great torch month. It can be plenty warm enough for t-shirts and really pleasant days, but it won't get hot, and those warm days are almost always dry. Any cold days are just wasted, so better it be mild! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 10 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: The big la nina pac ridge very prominent. Decent Greenland blocking. If there was a y semblance of a southern stream that would be a pretty good setup. Also, shift that pac ridge east and quite possibly some northern stream action could produce. That is more my concern for this season...not the temps, but the precip. I think we will have the cold... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 11 hours ago, snowman19 said: Yea I was going to say, not really sure how that looks stormy and wet It's a course monthly mean on a climate model at h5. Ofc you are going to glean something negative from it. That look implies a gradient pattern with energy in the SW potentially ejecting disturbances eastward along the boundary. A bit of a split flow. That's what I see.. Your opinions are never yours anyway. You just post shit from twitter all day that you perceive to align with your agenda. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 December looks dry. Maybe Jan looks dry for folks in NE. Down here the bigger concern in a setup like that is being on the wrong side of the boundary. Y'all realize this is the Mid Atlantic subforum right? Either way, its the goddamn CanSIPS lol. Just posted it for fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 50 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's a course monthly mean on a climate model at h5. Ofc you are going to glean something negative from it. That look implies a gradient pattern with energy in the SW potentially ejecting disturbances eastward along the boundary. A bit of a split flow. That's what I see.. Your opinions are never yours anyway. You just post shit from twitter all day that you perceive to align with your agenda. No need to curse. I don’t have an agenda. My opinion is that 2000-2001 is the best analog for this winter despite the QBO and PDO. I think we can all agree that winter was not a torch and given the winters over the last 7 years since 2015 I think everyone would take it and run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Some hints of winter showing up on very long range GFS, tis the season I suppose 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 5 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: Some hints of winter showing up on very long range GFS, tis the season I suppose Actually, there's 2 rounds of +PNA coming up in the LR, which being in mid-October, bodes well for the Winter. Unless we revert back to pattern of last 7-10 years. I keep getting 00-01 feelings when thinking about the Winter, and believe it or not the last time it was below average in Late Sept/early-mid October was 2003,2001,2000 *2000 was La Nina 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Quote Unless we revert back to pattern of last 7-10 years. Why would we believe it wouldn't? Add that the current CONUS temperature anomalies for this month look nothing like that map of October '00. We're seeing above average anomalies in the west/mid-west this year. I actually cannot remember a month where we had wall-to-wall below average temperature departures for the entire CONUS in the past 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 22 hours ago, snowman19 said: Yea I was going to say, not really sure how that looks stormy and wet Cutters into cad is what that can produce IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is more my concern for this season...not the temps, but the precip. I think we will have the cold... That’s always the issue here. Maybe not down at sea level, but I’ve said that same thing for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 14 hours ago, mattie g said: 100% agreed. Plenty of talk of a quite warm November on the Mid-Atlantic, which, assuming the source region in Canada doesn't torch, could be a good thing in setting up a possible colder period into December-January, as you said. In my opinion, November is a great torch month. It can be plenty warm enough for t-shirts and really pleasant days, but it won't get hot, and those warm days are almost always dry. Any cold days are just wasted, so better it be mild! I was just saying this to people today! It's really the only month of the year I'm good with being warmer than average. 10 degrees above average is like, mid to upper 60s for highs in November. That's gorgeous. I love winter weather like most of us in here, but days in the 60s are incredible. A little chill, but if it's sunny and dry it's very comfy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 A mix of 00-01, 99-00 could be a good match, what do you think? This is the last "La Nina "cold phase"", as the 2nd half of that Super Nino was very cold. I think the story will be, +PNA Dec, -PNA Jan, -PNA Feb. We were also coming up on a Solar Max, which we are in between this and low the solar la nina 07-08, 08-09, "solar ascending moderate now" (there's your fix)not sure it has much relevance.. but we are right in between 99/00-00/01 and 07/08-08/09 for enso and solar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Nailed it last year.. 12-4 since inception in 2005. [0.54 SD of DJFM NAO (0.00 is -0.54 to +0.54, 50% chance)] 12-4 is the base state verification, which is + this year. NAO forecast is about +0.40 here, -0.14 to +0.94 50% chance DJFM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 NAO has been inversely correlating with the Pacific, at like -0.70 (highest on record), so this increases the chances for +PNA -EPO this Winter. .In "0 time" 3 good posts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 16 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Actually, there's 2 rounds of +PNA coming up in the LR, which being in mid-October, bodes well for the Winter. Unless we revert back to pattern of last 7-10 years. I keep getting 00-01 feelings when thinking about the Winter, and believe it or not the last time it was below average in Late Sept/early-mid October was 2003,2001,2000 *2000 was La Nina I'd be quite alright with a repeat of that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 12 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s always the issue here. Maybe not down at sea level, but I’ve said that same thing for years. Statistically speaking, precip is actually more correlated to snowfall than temps, generally speaking, once you get above about the latitude of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 12 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Cutters into cad is what that can produce IMO Yea, believe it or not, a good portion of snowfall doesn't come during blizzards lol. We get a lot from "ugly" systems that actually represent a good portion of the yearly snowfall up here. The southwest flow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Statistically speaking, precip is actually more correlated to snowfall than temps, generally speaking, once you get above about the latitude of NYC. Same here for inland areas above about 500ft. If we have normal to above precip, we have normal to above snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Perhaps in response to HT strat water vapor in the Southern Hemisphere being picked up? And if there is a -NAO, can it pair up with a favorable or non-hostile Pac at times? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Thank you. I would be interested to see if a La Nina/+QBO doesn't strengthen the 10mb vortex, giving higher chances of +NAO. The last 3 La Nina/+QBO's have been -NAO's so there might be a "put" in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now