Terpeast Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 12:46 PM, snowman19 said: Expand Worth noting that the 4 corners in the west are warmer than normal in all four cases… and on the flip side, interier NE (especially Maine) are colder than normal in all cases. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 12:55 PM, Terpeast said: Worth noting that the 4 corners in the west are warmer than normal in all four cases… and on the flip side, interier NE (especially Maine) are colder than normal in all cases. Expand With those DFNs for the entire winter 1917-1918 must've been a beast of a winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 5:37 PM, IronTy said: With those DFNs for the entire winter 1917-1918 must've been a beast of a winter. Expand A rare year in which DC got snow in November and ended up with a good winter overall. Looks like it was pretty well frontloaded and then got pretty mild come early February, which I think a lot of folks around here would be happy with. Nov: 2.5" Dec: 6.8" Jan: 22.6" Feb: 1.5" Mar: 0.0" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 6:42 PM, mattie g said: A rare year in which DC got snow in November and ended up with a good winter overall. Looks like it was pretty well frontloaded and then got pretty mild come early February, which I think a lot of folks around here would be happy with. Nov: 2.5" Dec: 6.8" Jan: 22.6" Feb: 1.5" Mar: 0.0" Expand I've been doing some research on it. It sounds like a boss level winter. Good to know it's "on the table".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 11:16 PM, IronTy said: I've been doing some research on it. It sounds like a boss level winter. Good to know it's "on the table".... Expand Good luck if you think winters from a century ago are good analogs 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Jan 1918’s temp would be a current day -13.8 degree departure. Basically, a -10 for the entire winter. Amazingly, 1904/05’s winter was a touch colder. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 11:43 PM, MN Transplant said: Jan 1918’s temp would be a current day -13.8 degree departure. Basically, a -10 for the entire winter. Amazingly, 1904/05’s winter was a touch colder. Expand JB’s head would explode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 11:49 PM, WxUSAF said: JB’s head would explode Expand Want some depressing stuff? Here are the temps from around 1900 vs around 2000. Departures from current norms. Yeah, we can still pull off a Dec. 2000, or Feb. 2007 or 2015, but woof. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 11:33 PM, WxUSAF said: Good luck if you think winters from a century ago are good analogs Expand Yeah, if we’re going BN, it’ll be more like -1 or -2. The good news is we don’t even have to get that cold to get good snows as 2009-10 showed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 On 9/22/2022 at 12:22 AM, MN Transplant said: Want some depressing stuff? Here are the temps from around 1900 vs around 2000. Departures from current norms. Yeah, we can still pull off a Dec. 2000, or Feb. 2007 or 2015, but woof. Expand yeesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 11:49 PM, WxUSAF said: JB’s head would explode Expand JB’s analogs are 1917-1918, 1995-1996, 2010-2011….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 11:33 PM, WxUSAF said: Good luck if you think winters from a century ago are good analogs Expand People were using winters from the 1910s as analogs for 2010-11 lol The 2010-11 la nina was pretty amazing. Granted la ninas that come after el ninos tend to be very good. 1995-96 comes to mind too. But those should not be analogs for this winter, this isn't a la nina after an el nino lol. Maybe try something like 2000-01 instead? That was a third year la nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 On 9/22/2022 at 12:43 AM, MN Transplant said: Lol Expand Wasn't 1978-79 almost as cold as that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 On 9/22/2022 at 8:45 AM, LibertyBell said: Wasn't 1978-79 almost as cold as that? Expand Colder west of the Mississippi, warmer east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 On 9/22/2022 at 7:28 AM, snowman19 said: JB’s analogs are 1917-1918, 1995-1996, 2010-2011….. Expand For real? Never know with that guy... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 On 9/22/2022 at 8:41 AM, LibertyBell said: People were using winters from the 1910s as analogs for 2010-11 lol The 2010-11 la nina was pretty amazing. Granted la ninas that come after el ninos tend to be very good. 1995-96 comes to mind too. But those should not be analogs for this winter, this isn't a la nina after an el nino lol. Maybe try something like 2000-01 instead? That was a third year la nina. Expand Who was using winters from over 100 years ago as analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/enso-continues-to-stagnate-as-winter.html 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 11:33 PM, WxUSAF said: Good luck if you think winters from a century ago are good analogs Expand Give me even half of the DFNs and it would still be an epic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 On 9/22/2022 at 8:41 AM, LibertyBell said: People were using winters from the 1910s as analogs for 2010-11 lol The 2010-11 la nina was pretty amazing. Granted la ninas that come after el ninos tend to be very good. 1995-96 comes to mind too. But those should not be analogs for this winter, this isn't a la nina after an el nino lol. Maybe try something like 2000-01 instead? That was a third year la nina. Expand Lmao yesterday as I was reading up about the 17-18 winter I found some old article on AccuWeather dated 2011. I just started reading it and the author started comparing 2011 to 17-18 and I was "hey this is written a lot like JB". Looked up at the author and sure enough... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 On 9/22/2022 at 1:57 PM, IronTy said: Lmao yesterday as I was reading up about the 17-18 winter I found some old article on AccuWeather dated 2011. I just started reading it and the author started comparing 2011 to 17-18 and I was "hey this is written a lot like JB". Looked up at the author and sure enough... Expand LOL, I did the same thing. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 On 9/22/2022 at 11:30 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: For real? Never know with that guy... Expand No lol I’m joking but would it surprise you if those are actually that clown’s analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 On 9/22/2022 at 12:04 PM, mattie g said: Who was using winters from over 100 years ago as analogs? Expand NYC Subforum a few well known predictors. I don't want to call people out by name. The original forecast was for a below average snowfall winter but it turned on a dime after Christmas here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 On 9/22/2022 at 3:57 PM, snowman19 said: No lol I’m joking but would it surprise you if those are actually that clown’s analogs? Expand His forecast for 2001-02 was epically bad. That's what made me cancel my subscription. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 On 9/22/2022 at 3:57 PM, snowman19 said: No lol I’m joking but would it surprise you if those are actually that clown’s analogs? Expand No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 On 9/22/2022 at 4:04 PM, LibertyBell said: His forecast for 2001-02 was epically bad. That's what made me cancel my subscription. Expand 11-12 was another real doozy from him. He kept predicting major cold and snow in the east that entire winter. He didn’t finally admit defeat until mid-February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 On 9/22/2022 at 7:18 PM, snowman19 said: 11-12 was another real doozy from him. He kept predicting major cold and snow in the east that entire winter. He didn’t finally admit defeat until mid-February Expand Was that the year of the complete JMA meltdown capitulation? I can't remember. I felt so bad for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 On 9/22/2022 at 12:22 AM, MN Transplant said: Want some depressing stuff? Here are the temps from around 1900 vs around 2000. Departures from current norms. Yeah, we can still pull off a Dec. 2000, or Feb. 2007 or 2015, but woof. Expand 2015 warm+9.5, El Nino... 2007-9.1cold La Nina... 2000-9.9cold La Nina 3/5 latest extremes have been warm-El Nino, cold-La Nina. That seems to me to be more "typical". I think it's typical for La Nina to be cold phase, and El Nino warm phase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 On 9/22/2022 at 7:18 PM, snowman19 said: 11-12 was another real doozy from him. He kept predicting major cold and snow in the east that entire winter. He didn’t finally admit defeat until mid-February Expand It's a pattern with him. He's actually worse than a clown, because a clown usually does what they do without knowing any better or to get a laugh. JB knows exactly what he's doing and he does it to get more subscribers and to make more money. That makes him a liar and a thief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 On 9/22/2022 at 4:03 PM, LibertyBell said: NYC Subforum a few well known predictors. I don't want to call people out by name. The original forecast was for a below average snowfall winter but it turned on a dime after Christmas here. Expand OK...sounded like you were referring to people in here. We're generally a pretty dour bunch when it comes to winter, so it would have surprised me if someone from here would think a brutal winter would be a viable analog for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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