Winter 2022-23

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It could be similar just in the sense that 1976-1977 had a very diffuse STJ and was all N stream...that is why it sucked down there. That is a risk this year......that said, I def. would not use it as an analog, per se.

Now I'm guessing part of that had to do with coming off a double-dip nina regime? (hence it still being N stream dominated). But given the year that followed, could you say it was a weird in between as the nina died and the coming nino was just beginning?

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now I'm guessing part of that had to do with coming off a double-dip nina regime? (hence it still being N stream dominated). But given the year that followed, could you say it was a weird in between as the nina died and the coming nino was just beginning?

Well, I would just say it was a weak la nino and leave it at that because being N stream reliant is always a risk in weak el nino seasons. That is why you guys want them a bit more robust, like 1957, 1986, 2002 and 2009. Maybe the weaker STJ was exacerbated coming off of a triple deep la nina because the weak nino of 1977-1978 had a bit more of a STJ, but the main thing is you want a more moderate el nino. I think you will get that next year.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Because certain folks here need to 'mentally prepare' for the devastation of not getting much snow, in a region where snow is always a challenge. If only everyone had reasonable expectations based on their climo lol.

Climo expectations...and yet realizing there are no absolutes in weather either, and 1+1+1 doesn't always equal three. Two dichotomies...

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Climo expectations...and yet realizing there are no absolutes in weather either, and 1+1+1 doesn't always equal three. Two dichotomies...

If one must have an expectation going in, median is reasonable. For the lowlands at our latitude snowfall can vary quite a bit from winter to winter depending on the overall pattern and luck, but in general we suck. 

[snowman19]

On 9/7/2022 at 7:27 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This one post beautifully encapsulates everything that I have been trying to convey to @snowman19. Seasonal forecasts are almost like fantasy drafts in the sense that people don't always appreciate that you need to evaluate analog seasons in terms of percentages....ie if you are looking for 1995-1996/2009-2010 upside, then this season is likely to disappoint. But that doesn't mean it isn't going to deliver pretty high value. In fantasy sports, there are some players that are drafted highly because of the high degree of confidence that they will have a decent season, rather than an elite ceiling. This season to me feels like it has a safe floor and a relatively low ceiling for a lot of the east coast, so while it may not have the allure of the high ceiling to lure weenies into drafting it in the first round, I think its a safe bet to return decent winter value.

We have a hemisphere in a great state of flux as it begins to rapidly shift gears towards a warm ENSO phase, and quite a favorable one for winter enthusiasts, at that......JMHO.

Of course there are no absolutes or slam dunks, however, I will say this, La Niña, QBO, PDO, IOD, ACE, Atlantic SSTs, volcanoes aside, if the current high solar flux continues, it’s definitely not a good sign for this upcoming winter

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Of course there are no absolutes or slam dunks, however, I will say this, La Niña, QBO, PDO, IOD, ACE, Atlantic SSTs, volcanoes aside, if the current high solar flux continues, it’s definitely not a good sign for this upcoming winter

Well aside from maybe the fall of 2009, there are always factors that are, at least ostensibly, against a cold and/or snowy winter every year, and given that we have already established that this year doesn't have the ceiling of 2009....sounds about right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would be careful about including PDO and IOD and that grouping, as well....I have already established that the PNA is relatively stochastic in nature and parts ways with the PDO fairly frequently. I think it increases the likelihood of such an occurrence when the the negative PDO is ascending, as it should be this season. As for the IOD, I have already explained why its not as coupled with la nina than it would have if the event had developed early in the summer, as opposed to lingering from the past two years. This is at least in part why it is playing out as I have said it would, with la nina stagnating and even eroding somewhat, as opposed to flourishing this fall.

I think a situation like this is where the bias of certain posters is on full display because while assertions may not be without merit on the surface, there is a reluctance to dig any deeper because the simple conclusion happens to suite said bias.

[40/70 Benchmark]

As for the QBO....its relevance is still the subject of much debate and their are countless examples, such as last season, when the PV evolves in a manner opposite of what one would assume based on the overall character of the QBO. I mean, we have had like 9/10 of the past winter seasons average a +NAO....I know there were more easterly QBO seasons than that. And as for la nina supporting a +AO/NAO, that relationship becomes much more nebular when the event remains fairly weak, as it should this season for reasons already stated. 

What we are then left with is ACE, which is still in progress, and Atlantic SSTs, which at this time are not at all conducive to a negative NAO. How much of that is a "chicken or the egg" dynamic is still up for debate.

[yoda]

@40/70 Benchmark

This is when you were forecasting the La Nina to peak yes?  In the fall and then ease back into weak territory in early 2023?

[Eskimo Joe]

Wonder how much further NW the mix line will be this winter from that warmer sea water.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As for the QBO....its relevance is still the subject of much debate and their are countless examples, such as last season, when the PV evolves in a manner opposite of what one would assume based on the overall character of the QBO. I mean, we have had like 9/10 of the past winter seasons average a +NAO....I know there were more easterly QBO seasons than that. And as for la nina supporting a +AO/NAO, that relationship becomes much more nebular when the event remains fairly weak, as it should this season for reasons already stated. 

What we are then left with is ACE, which is still in progress, and Atlantic SSTs, which at this time are not at all conducive to a negative NAO. How much of that is a "chicken or the egg" dynamic is still up for debate.

so it turns out that the anomalously cool stratospheric temperatures over the SH actually correlate to a west based -NAO 

kinda makes sense, I would think that there would be some kind of balancing out with the historically cold SH stratosphere

obviously, this is a correlation and these years had other factors influencing the NAO... but this is interesting and it seems that, on average, a very cold SH strat would help a -NAO if anything, not hurt it

[mattie g]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wonder how much further NW the mix line will be this winter from that warmer sea water.

It'll only matter if we get a storm that brings in flow off the ocean. If we don't have much of a STJ, then how many storms of that ilk can we really expect?

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, yoda said:

@40/70 Benchmark

This is when you were forecasting the La Nina to peak yes?  In the fall and then ease back into weak territory in early 2023?

Yea, like I said...its not going to be strong. I'll eat that guy's shorts if it does. You guys have a shot this year...don't listen to the doom and gloom.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

so it turns out that the anomalously cool stratospheric temperatures over the SH actually correlate to a west based -NAO 

kinda makes sense, I would think that there would be some kind of balancing out with the historically cold SH stratosphere

obviously, this is a correlation and these years had other factors influencing the NAO... but this is interesting and it seems that, on average, a very cold SH strat would help a -NAO if anything, not hurt it

I'm sure that was next on @snowman19's list of tweets to quote.

For real, though....I am seeing a real theme for negative NAO on the seasonal guidance, especially early on. Last season, the seasonals all had +NAO, which worked out.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, like I said...its not going to be strong. I'll eat that guy's shorts if it does. You guys have a shot this year...don't listen to the doom and gloom.

What's climo like during weakening La Nina winters? I can live with low snow, just don't want to torch.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

so it turns out that the anomalously cool stratospheric temperatures over the SH actually correlate to a west based -NAO 

kinda makes sense, I would think that there would be some kind of balancing out with the historically cold SH stratosphere

obviously, this is a correlation and these years had other factors influencing the NAO... but this is interesting and it seems that, on average, a very cold SH strat would help a -NAO if anything, not hurt it

Did the SH have a very strong, and constricted PV this past winter?

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sure that was next on @snowman19's list of tweets to quote.

For real, though....I am seeing a real theme for negative NAO on the seasonal guidance, especially early on. Last season, the seasonals all had +NAO, which worked out.

the -NAO correlation from Nov-Jan with the cold stratosphere is even more interesting when you consider the propensity for early blocking in the analogs, as you're saying. this is a legit west-based -NAO signal 

and when looking at these years' SH strat temperature anomalies from August to September, there is a definite signal for an anomalously cold stratosphere. it's obviously not to the extreme extent as we're seeing this year, but it's certainly similar

so, I see no reason to believe that December won't bring some decent winter chances before -ENSO climo takes over as we head into mid January - February

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the -NAO correlation from Nov-Jan with the cold stratosphere is even more interesting when you consider the propensity for early blocking in the analogs, as you're saying. this is a legit west-based -NAO signal 

and when looking at these years' SH strat temperature anomalies from August to September, there is a definite signal for an anomalously cold stratosphere. it's obviously not to the extreme extent as we're seeing this year, but it's certainly similar

so, I see no reason to believe that December won't bring some decent winter chances before -ENSO climo takes over as we head into mid January - February

This works right in with basin wide/modoki nina climo, which is for the most wintery part of the season to be in December before going to crap later.

[mattie g]

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Did the SH have a very strong, and constricted PV this past winter?

yes, for sure

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This works right in with basin wide/modoki nina climo, which is for the most wintery part of the season to be in December before going to crap later.

it's also worth noting that the analogs also had a very weak NH SPV compared to average, which checks out with increased early blocking

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yes, for sure

Man, snowman needs to move south lol

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wonder how much further NW the mix line will be this winter from that warmer sea water.

Wonder how much more intense the costals will be, I guess whoever ends up on the right side of the mixing line should be in for a pretty good storm. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

so it turns out that the anomalously cool stratospheric temperatures over the SH actually correlate to a west based -NAO 

kinda makes sense, I would think that there would be some kind of balancing out with the historically cold SH stratosphere

obviously, this is a correlation and these years had other factors influencing the NAO... but this is interesting and it seems that, on average, a very cold SH strat would help a -NAO if anything, not hurt it

Is this data set above years in which there was a major SH eruption?

 

What about the one below? Are these just seasons that you personally feel are good analogs?

48 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the -NAO correlation from Nov-Jan with the cold stratosphere is even more interesting when you consider the propensity for early blocking in the analogs, as you're saying. this is a legit west-based -NAO signal 

and when looking at these years' SH strat temperature anomalies from August to September, there is a definite signal for an anomalously cold stratosphere. it's obviously not to the extreme extent as we're seeing this year, but it's certainly similar

so, I see no reason to believe that December won't bring some decent winter chances before -ENSO climo takes over as we head into mid January - February

 

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is this data set above years in which there was a major SH eruption?

What about the one below? Are these just seasons that you personally feel are good analogs?

 

1) I believe they're years that exhibited significant SH strat cooling, not particularly for eruptions

the author of the post constructed a SH strat temp index and picked out particularly cold years... here's the link if you'd like to read the entire thing, it's quite detailed: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

2) yes, these are analogs that my coworkers and I agreed on, factoring in ENSO, PDO, and QBO... all of them are weak -ENSO/cold neutral coming off of multiple -ENSO events, besides 1996-97

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

1) I believe they're years that exhibited significant SH strat cooling, not particularly for eruptions

2) yes, these are analogs that my coworkers and I agreed on, factoring in ENSO, PDO, and QBO... all of them are weak -ENSO/cold neutral coming off of multiple -ENSO events, besides 1996-97

1996 is perhaps the strongest December analog IMO....it was a second year cool ENSO. The sequence concept is just an add-on IMO...its not a deal breaker if you think an analog has value.

Do you have any peer reviewed research linking SH cooling to NH warming, or is that your cursory postulation?

It does make sense....the earth loves to balance, and that is the very essence of ENSO, which is why its so self-destructive.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yes, for sure

I actually meant during this past SH winter, which would be June through August.

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1996 is perhaps the strongest December analog IMO....it was a second year cool ENSO. The sequence concept is just an add-on IMO...its not a deal breaker if you think an analog has value.

Do you have any peer reviewed research linking SH cooling to NH warming, or is that your cursory postulation?

It does make sense....the earth loves to balance, and that is the very essence of ENSO, which is why its so self-destructive.

I haven't seen anything peer reviewed or anything like that... just a correlation that could be useful for this winter

it seems like a bit too much to be a coincidence. there's a lot of years there and actual analogs based on ENSO/QBO/PDO that back it up

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I actually meant during this past SH winter, which would be June through August.

whoops. it's actually even stronger lmao

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

whoops. it's actually even stronger lmao

Not very constricted, and pretty elongated.....1991-2020 climo really accentuates  lower heights, as well.

Here is a different vantage point