Winter 2022-23

[WEATHER53]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not to sure about Mongolia, but over I would say -AO/-EPO would be a good start.

Thanks and I’ll be sure for you.

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

We really had a strong pattern in 2012-15, 4 Winter's H(Pacificwater), reverse the next 6, then go back to 12-15/like last year. 

setting up the same general this Summer ^

 

I would put the chances of a 13-14 or 14-15 style +PNA/-EPO on roids winter at very, very low and extremely unlikely, those winters were driven by ++PDO. Despite what I’m seeing from some of the twitterologists, besides this year having super low Atlantic ACE, it is nothing at all like 13-14, like not even in the ballpark of that year

[Jebman]

Indexes or no indexes, all I've got to say is winter is coming for the Mid Atlantic --- and its gonna be a cold, snowy mother too!

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not too sure about Mongolia, but over here I would say -AO/-EPO would be a good start.

Every MA winter weather fan should know that a -AO is fundamentally important. In its absence a -EPO pattern can deliver cold, but without episodes of NA blocking snow is a bit more of a crapshoot.

[snowman19]

Some good articles Eric linked to if anyone would like to read up on this: 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Some good articles Eric linked to if anyone would like to read up on this: 

 

Without reading the article, I am going to take a wild guess and assume that this correlates to a +NAO/AO this winter and an enhanced PV.

[WxUSAF]

I’m not sure much/enough h2o will reach the northern hemisphere this year to notably impact the northern winter strat PV. Next winter on the other hand…

[StormchaserChuck!]

13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I would put the chances of a 13-14 or 14-15 style +PNA/-EPO on roids winter at very, very low and extremely unlikely, those winters were driven by ++PDO. Despite what I’m seeing from some of the twitterologists, besides this year having super low Atlantic ACE, it is nothing at all like 13-14, like not even in the ballpark of that year

We are running closer to 10-13 than 16-21 imo. If we do a big/huge +NAO like +2, the EPO will probably go negative. 

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

We are running closer to 10-13 than 16-21 imo. If we do a big/huge +NAO like +2, the EPO will probably go negative. 

16-21 was a dumpster fire so I'll take 10-13.  I recall a few good events in there.  Or at least cold and wind...

[psuhoffman]

On 8/31/2022 at 5:31 PM, StormchaserChuck! said:

 

Watch out though that the last 3 +QBO/La Nina's have been cold-surface,-NAO's tendecies. (10mb obviously amped.)

And yet all 3 were still below avg snow in DC and Baltimore! 
 

@40/70 BenchmarkYour posts are awesome and I like your analysis and agree with most of it. I’ve not said I expect a complete North American fail 2002/2008/2012/2020 type winter.  

But where I am skeptical of much success here, and I do wonder if you realize just how frustratingly maddeningly difficult it can be to get snow down here…is the fact that even most of the “colder” Nina years like 2009, 2018 and 2011 were pretty awful snowfall years in DC!  Even most cold enso neutral years like 1994 were below avg snowfall in DC!   For us to get a decent snowfall season in DC/Balt where the majority of this sub resides, it typically takes either a Nino, or a super lucky convergence of most other factors being in our favor.  In the last decade we’ve had periods with a good pac or good NAO and it did nothing for DC at all  

Additionally when avg snow is only 13.7”…Im also not sure how some of the statements like “it’s probably going to be below avg but not awful” even jives up with reality?  How do you have a below avg snowfall season in a place where avg is barely above single digits and not have it be “awful”. 
 

Before you say I am being unrealistic…I am not using my standard.  I am going off the fact that if we go 2 weeks without snow the winter thread in here becomes flooded with whining and complaints.  I’m not sure such a thing as a “below avg but not awful” snowfall year can exist by the standards I see in here.  
 

So I do agree there are likely to be some periods of cold and some snow!  But what that typically looks like in DC in a year with a likely predominant +NAO -PNA and a -enso is usually ~ 6-10”.  And I’ve experienced a ton of exactly those type winters in the 20 years I’ve been on weather forums and from experience the general tone in here as that kind of winter plays out is always “this is awful”. So I don’t think my disagreement is necessarily with the forecast just with the perception we can have a below avg snow year and have the perception not be that it was bad. 
 

 

[psuhoffman]

8 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m not sure much/enough h2o will reach the northern hemisphere this year to notably impact the northern winter strat PV. Next winter on the other hand…

So just in time to ruin our modoki Nino lol. 

[psuhoffman]

13 hours ago, CAPE said:

Every MA winter weather fan should know that a -AO is fundamentally important. In its absence a -EPO pattern can deliver cold, but without episodes of NA blocking snow is a bit more of a crapshoot.

I keep reading comments about how the Atlantic and pacific are going to suck but…and all I keep thinking is “have people forgotten just how hard it is to get snow around here”.  Sometimes even when almost everything is perfect we can’t get snow. But somehow this year everything imaginable is going to be against us but it’s going to be fine. 

[psuhoffman]

It very likely will snow some. And I will track it and enjoy the hell out of it!  And maybe we get a rare fluke and it turns out better despite all evidence. Just saying I am shaking my head at the idea we can have a year where the enso, N pac, high latitudes and Atlantic are all wrong and it somehow is going to just be ok. That hasn’t been my experience around here. That’s all. My seasonal forecasts absolutely suck so who cares. I’m probably wrong and DC gets 30”!  

[Eskimo Joe]

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It very likely will snow some. And I will track it and enjoy the hell out of it!  And maybe we get a rare fluke and it turns out better despite all evidence. Just saying I am shaking my head at the idea we can have a year where the enso, N pac, high latitudes and Atlantic are all wrong and it somehow is going to just be ok. That hasn’t been my experience around here. That’s all. My seasonal forecasts absolutely suck so who cares. I’m probably wrong and DC gets 30”!  

Can we just get a solid 3 weeks of winter for Christmas with a nice 8-12" of cold powder for Christmas Day? Let the pattern flip around Jan 10th. That's all I'm asking.

[SnowenOutThere]

25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Can we just get a solid 3 weeks of winter for Christmas with a nice 8-12" of cold powder for Christmas Day? Let the pattern flip around Jan 10th. That's all I'm asking.

If we get a significant snowfall before or on Christmas it makes the winter at least ok, now if we get a blizzard Christmas then it makes the winter. After all it only takes one storm 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Next time I’m feeling down, I’ll just read this thread and then I’ll be ok. 
 

Geez, and it’s like that every year.

[WxUSAF]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

So just in time to ruin our modoki Nino lol. 

Honestly? Yeah, quite possibly…

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It very likely will snow some. And I will track it and enjoy the hell out of it!  And maybe we get a rare fluke and it turns out better despite all evidence. Just saying I am shaking my head at the idea we can have a year where the enso, N pac, high latitudes and Atlantic are all wrong and it somehow is going to just be ok. That hasn’t been my experience around here. That’s all. My seasonal forecasts absolutely suck so who cares. I’m probably wrong and DC gets 30”!  

The indices were all pretty bad going into the last 2 years as well, and portions of our region had very good years each year. So, I’m hoping we can muddle through again. 

[nj2va]

17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Next time I’m feeling down, I’ll just read this thread and then I’ll be ok. 
 

Geez, and it’s like that every year.

Early preview of the mood in the MR/LR thread. 

[Weather Will]

WB Sept 1 EURO weeklies through mid October….start building up the snow pack in our cold source regions!!!!  

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Early preview of the mood in the MR/LR thread. 

Yeah it ain't worth it, y'all! I'm telling ya, lolol Every year I say I won't track as much...but this year may finally be the one where I actually don't! It is just not worth it unless you enjoy the science of it

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It very likely will snow some. And I will track it and enjoy the hell out of it!  And maybe we get a rare fluke and it turns out better despite all evidence. Just saying I am shaking my head at the idea we can have a year where the enso, N pac, high latitudes and Atlantic are all wrong and it somehow is going to just be ok. That hasn’t been my experience around here. That’s all. My seasonal forecasts absolutely suck so who cares. I’m probably wrong and DC gets 30”!  

I do kinda marvel at those that just enjoy tracking no matter what the final result is! I guess there's the enjoyment of the science/hobby side of it, eh?

I know for me if it ain't got a shot at much, chasing the week-to-week, Z to Z model runs don't yield much ROI...in these instances the snow is all a ghost, we know that in our logical brains. Yet in some of our subconscious, we see a pink clown map and say "Hey look we've got snow! Yeeeeee....". Then you're exhausted...then repeat with the next threat, lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

And yet all 3 were still below avg snow in DC and Baltimore! 
 

@40/70 BenchmarkYour posts are awesome and I like your analysis and agree with most of it. I’ve not said I expect a complete North American fail 2002/2008/2012/2020 type winter.  

But where I am skeptical of much success here, and I do wonder if you realize just how frustratingly maddeningly difficult it can be to get snow down here…is the fact that even most of the “colder” Nina years like 2009, 2018 and 2011 were pretty awful snowfall years in DC!  Even most cold enso neutral years like 1994 were below avg snowfall in DC!   For us to get a decent snowfall season in DC/Balt where the majority of this sub resides, it typically takes either a Nino, or a super lucky convergence of most other factors being in our favor.  In the last decade we’ve had periods with a good pac or good NAO and it did nothing for DC at all  

Additionally when avg snow is only 13.7”…Im also not sure how some of the statements like “it’s probably going to be below avg but not awful” even jives up with reality?  How do you have a below avg snowfall season in a place where avg is barely above single digits and not have it be “awful”. 
 

Before you say I am being unrealistic…I am not using my standard.  I am going off the fact that if we go 2 weeks without snow the winter thread in here becomes flooded with whining and complaints.  I’m not sure such a thing as a “below avg but not awful” snowfall year can exist by the standards I see in here.  
 

So I do agree there are likely to be some periods of cold and some snow!  But what that typically looks like in DC in a year with a likely predominant +NAO -PNA and a -enso is usually ~ 6-10”.  And I’ve experienced a ton of exactly those type winters in the 20 years I’ve been on weather forums and from experience the general tone in here as that kind of winter plays out is always “this is awful”. So I don’t think my disagreement is necessarily with the forecast just with the perception we can have a below avg snow year and have the perception not be that it was bad. 
 

 

Well, I never said I'd forecast a big year down there. I will put numbers to everything in a couple of months.  It's tough to discuss is too much right now because there is still a great deal of equivocating at this early juncture. 

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Can we just get a solid 3 weeks of winter for Christmas with a nice 8-12" of cold powder for Christmas Day? Let the pattern flip around Jan 10th. That's all I'm asking.

How many times in recorded history has that happened?  

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Honestly? Yeah, quite possibly…

The indices were all pretty bad going into the last 2 years as well, and portions of our region had very good years each year. So, I’m hoping we can muddle through again. 

You’re really trying to drive @Maestrobjwacrazy aren’t ya!  
 

II hope I’m wrong about this but I felt some if the ancillary indexes were more conflicted the last couple years. The Nina was more favorably centered. 2 years ago solar was more favorable. The QBO Nina combo analogs werent awful.  The North Atlantic sst wasn’t as hostile either.  I wasn’t optimistic but I saw some reasons to think “maybe”.  This year Im struggling to see much.  But one thing to hold out hope is maybe historical expectations aren’t valid anymore.  I wouldn’t be totally shocked if things turn out better.  I never gave high confidence in any long range forecast. Just not expecting it.  

 

[Darkstorm]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

How many times in recorded history has that happened?  

I mean if you keep asking eventually you will find an acorn. 

[Eskimo Joe]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

How many times in recorded history has that happened?  

Let me dream. 

[mattie g]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

How many times in recorded history has that happened?  

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Let me dream. 

You can dream. And when you wake up you can enjoy your 55 degree Xmas!  

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, mattie g said:

Just keep in mind over the years I’ve busted high more than low with my seasonal forecasts.  The last time I was taking heat for being a huge deb the whole sub ended up with single digit snow and many places got a total goose egg. I truly honestly hope this time it blows up in my fave and we get buried and you all can make fun of me. 

[Maestrobjwa]

On 9/1/2022 at 9:46 AM, WxUSAF said:

I’m not sure much/enough h2o will reach the northern hemisphere this year to notably impact the northern winter strat PV. Next winter on the other hand…

 

20 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

So just in time to ruin our modoki Nino lol. 

 

17 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Honestly? Yeah, quite possibly…

Are you both referring to the volcanic eruption? If so...I mean I think I heard that a 1992 nino was ruined by Pinatubo...and if that happens again, that would be horrible snow luck...my goodness.

Was the strength of this year's eruption that powerful, though?