Winter 2022-23

[Maestrobjwa]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've been in a rough patch locally for several years now, despite the region as a whole doing okay....I haven't sniffed normal seasonal snowfall since 2017-2018.

Dang really? Now in your region what does a rough patch look like? Lol

[mattie g]

Before I even looked down after PSU's post, I knew Maestrobjwa would be the first reply and that it would be another lamentation on how horrible this winter will be.

Everyone quoting him has proven that out for me.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Before I even looked down after PSU's post, I knew Maestrobjwa would be the first reply and that it would be another lamentation on how horrible this winter will be.

Everyone quoting him has proven that out for me.

You know my posts well  Btw I feel completely justified in making whatever lament I do on here...the unfairness that's happened in my yard the last 7 years warrants it, and there's absolutely nowhere else to put the angst but here...but don't worry I think it'll all be wrung out by winter, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Last year was well below normal here but I still enjoyed the snow I got.  It seems you’re chasing the kind of winter we only get 1-2 times a decade. That will leave you frustrated most of the time. 

That's easy for you to do since most years you'll cash in one way or another. How would you feel if you had a nearly 7 year stretch never measuring any single snowfall more than a few inches?

[IronTy]

16 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Let me ask ya something: What kind of winter followed the discussion we had a year ago?

Idk, I got like 15" on that one storm so if we can repeat last year I'm cool.   

[IUsedToHateCold]

14 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Is it that hard to predict, though? I mean ya coulda said that last year and yet the enso that we knew was gonna be there determined exactly what happened. Now unless enso changes...what's hard to predict?

Yeah, pretty hard. Beyond ENSO, what kind of ENSO (where exactly are the hot/cold anomalies situated)? There's also all the other teleconnections: QBO, PDO, IOD, etc... These may very well be the tip of the iceberg as well, for if this were truly easy, then with the powerful computers and tools available we would have solved forecasting seasonal anomalies already and this discussion would be moot. 

Even if this season is mostly a bust in terms of a shutout pattern, the other thing to remember is that the transition periods between pattern regimes may provide chances which have to be factored into consideration. When those transitions will happen is anybody's guess. That's why I keep saying there is a considerable luck factor involved. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang really? Now in your region what does a rough patch look like? Lol

Well, I average about 63"

2018-2019 I had about 48"

2019-2020 About 44"

2020-2021 Like 53"

2021-2022 Last year was like 46"

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Yeah, pretty hard. Beyond ENSO, what kind of ENSO (where exactly are the hot/cold anomalies situated)? There's also all the other teleconnections: QBO, PDO 

So legit question: What is the difference between the 4 ninas we've had the last 6 years?

Now, to a laymen, you look at what happened with snowfall those years and it looks very, very similar.  So like...I don't know much about teleconmections, but just a simple look at the totals and how we got there...and how we missed, it looks the same to me. But not so?

[IUsedToHateCold]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So question: What is the difference between the 4 ninas we've had the last 6 years? To a laymen, you look at what happened with snowfall those years and it looks very, very similar. So like...I don't know much about teleconmections, but just a simple look at the totals and how we got there...and how we missed, it looks the same to me.

The trend I see in Nina years for our area is small to moderate events. They're mostly suppressed and clip our area from the S/E, favoring areas east of the fall line but not packing a huge amount of punch in terms of totals. We also see plenty of cutters and systems impacting PA. We seem to be lacking big epic storms like 2016 in these years, but we can nickle-and-dime ourselves to around climo (slightly below or above)

[psuhoffman]

17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would agree that nothing is in favor of a big season down there, but I don't think you should necessarily be absolutely resigned to a horrendous season, either. I mean, if you feel you need to in order to mentally prepare yourself, I get it....but a pretty average season is well within the realm of plausibility....too early to tell.

But like I said, I would be surprised if you guys didn't kill it in 2023-2024...in all seriousness. Anything this season is gravy.

What I’m about to say is specific to the DC-Baltimore corridor. The western and northern higher elevation fringes of this forum have a different climo.
 

 I’m not predicting a total shutout or anything. But they typically only get 2-3 above avg snowfall winters a decade. And “avg” is only like 15-20” across much of the area….so anything below is bad. It’s just how bad. So truth is, our climo is to have a lot of crappy winters with a blockbuster every so often when the stars align. This doesn’t look like that. What level of bad I can’t say.  Whether it’s a 2002 or 2012 or 2020 level disaster or just a more typical crappy winter like 2011 or 2018 who knows.  But while we do enjoy whatever snow we get many are hunting for the actual good winter, and we’re due for one, but unfortunately it doesn’t look likely to be this winter. 

[George001]

If the La Niña keeps deepening (I thought it would be strong last year and it was barely moderate, so not going to jump the gun too early), could 2010-2011 become a decent analog? The MEI is on roids like 2010-2011 and the subsurface is rapidly cooling, so a decrease in surface temps is possible down the line. The 2010-2011 La Niña was extremely strong and dominated the winter pattern. 

[snowman19]

This has low ACE Atlantic hurricane season written all over it: 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This has low ACE Atlantic hurricane season written all over it: 

 

Agree.

[Terpeast]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This has low ACE Atlantic hurricane season written all over it: 

 

 

Interesting. I also read somewhere that western pacific typhoon ACE has a more significant but inverse correlation with US winter temps than the atlantic. Can't find the link though.

[thunderbolt]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This has low ACE Atlantic hurricane season written all over it: 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

23 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

On 7/31/2022 at 8:50 AM, snowman19 said:

This has low ACE Atlantic hurricane season written all over it: 

 

Did you guys mean to post these in the hurricane thread?

[psuhoffman]

On 7/29/2022 at 12:44 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

That's easy for you to do since most years you'll cash in one way or another. How would you feel if you had a nearly 7 year stretch never measuring any single snowfall more than a few inches?

I lived about 20 years in south NJ and DC metro with your current climo. That’s why I moved. What I didn’t do was stay and subject everyone to constant complaints because I wasn’t happy with my climo.  Before you try to kid yourself that this is only about the current run of bad luck and that you would be fine with climo…that’s bunk because you’re torturous laments began long before we actually got into true anomalously snow drought territory. The truth is you would not be happy with our 1990-2020 type climo…and you certainly won’t be with what is likely to be a worse climo for the next 30 years!  

You should be honest with yourself. You can either accept you live somewhere snow is rare, and stop expecting it and just enjoy when a fluke happens. Or move somewhere an hour northwest like I did and suffer the commute. Or relocate to a city like Boston where snow is more common.  Even there you have to live west of the city to really be snow drought proof. 

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Did you guys mean ti post these in the hurricane thread?

ACE has been shown to have a connection to winter, so it’d be appropriate here too. 

[snowman19]

52 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Did you guys mean ti post these in the hurricane thread?

No

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

ACE has been shown to have a connection to winter, so it’d be appropriate here too. 

Oh! Okay my bad--didn't know that. What's the connection, btw?

[snowman19]

@Volcanic Winter The volcanic aspect of this coming winter: 

 

[WxWatcher007]

32 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh! Okay my bad--didn't know that. What's the connection, btw?

That’s out of my depth. I’m just here for tropical lol. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Did you guys mean ti post these in the hurricane thread?

You should come to learn that anything @snowman19 posts is supportive of a milder winter ....if you see him mention a bottle of Windex in the winter thread, you don't need to know why, but just know that it's somehow correlated to a shitty winter.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You should come to learn that anything @snowman19 posts is supportive of a milder winter ....if you see him mention a bottle of Windex in the winter thread, you don't need to know why, but just know that it's somehow correlated to a shitty winter.

Noted, lolol

[WEATHER53]

90% completed and looking decent. Likely  best since 2016

The contracts we now have to provide our broadcasting  services nationally have restrictions as to attributions on seasonal outlooks.  You all know who I network with and like it always was it’s still a collaborative effort.  We don’t use tropical situation as anything more than a quite minor aspect but will still hold off until 9/21 for release 

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You should come to learn that anything @snowman19 posts is supportive of a milder winter ....if you see him mention a bottle of Windex in the winter thread, you don't need to know why, but just know that it's somehow correlated to a shitty winter.

I actually agreed with you about 2000-2001 being an analog and that December was not mild nor is that winter considered mild overall and March had one of the biggest blizzards of all time in parts of New England so not sure what the slight was for. But ok 

[snowman19]

On 7/31/2022 at 4:18 PM, snowman19 said:

@Volcanic Winter The volcanic aspect of this coming winter: 

 

Just to add: 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

Hi

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I actually agreed with you about 2000-2001 being an analog and that December was not mild nor is that winter considered mild overall and March had one of the biggest blizzards of all time in parts of New England so not sure what the slight was for. But ok 

 I'm just messing with you, but most of your posts do tend to have a theme....never implied that you don't know your stuff, though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

90% completed and looking decent. Likely  best since 2016

The contracts we now have to provide our broadcasting  services nationally have restrictions as to attributions on seasonal outlooks.  You all know who I network with and like it always was it’s still a collaborative effort.  We don’t use tropical situation as anything more than a quite minor aspect but will still hold off until 9/21 for release 

I agree that folks a bit overly pessimistic. While I don't see anything in the early going that implies the second incarnate of Snowmageddon is on the horizon, nor do I see anything particularly horrendous, either.