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June 13 Severe Event


nwohweather
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 356
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   520 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northern Indiana
     Southwest Lower Michigan
     Northwest Ohio
     Lake Michigan

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 520 PM until
     1100 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...A cluster of severe storms over southern Lake Michigan
   will likely maintain intensity and could grow upscale into a bowing
   cluster over the next few hours while moving into southwest Lower
   Michigan, and eventually northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio. 
   These storms will have the potential to produce swaths of
   significant severe outflow gusts of at least 80 mph, along with
   large hail of 1.5 to 2 inches in diameter.  A secondary threat will
   be the potential for an isolated tornado or two with embedded
   circulations.
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Tornado Watch for SE WI and NE IL coming w/in the hour -- pretty much the CHI metro -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1148.html

mcd1148.gif

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1148
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0538 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

   Areas affected...Northeast Illinois...southeast Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 132238Z - 140045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing in a very unstable and highly
   sheared environment. A tornado watch will likely be needed to
   address this concern.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along a warm frontal
   boundary across northern IL within the past hour. The downstream
   environment remains highly unstable per latest RAP mesoanalysis
   (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE), and VWP observations from KLOT show around
   200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. These observations support latest 6+ STP
   estimates that were recently analyzed in recent data. While the
   propensity for discrete convection is unclear due to storm motions
   along the surface boundary and several updrafts in close proximity,
   the environment is supportive of a tornado threat. A tornado watch
   is likely in the next hour to address this concern.

   ..Moore/Thompson.. 06/13/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

 

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Tornado Watch for SE WI and NE IL coming w/in the hour -- pretty much the CHI metro -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1148.html

mcd1148.gif

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1148
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0538 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

   Areas affected...Northeast Illinois...southeast Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 132238Z - 140045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing in a very unstable and highly
   sheared environment. A tornado watch will likely be needed to
   address this concern.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along a warm frontal
   boundary across northern IL within the past hour. The downstream
   environment remains highly unstable per latest RAP mesoanalysis
   (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE), and VWP observations from KLOT show around
   200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. These observations support latest 6+ STP
   estimates that were recently analyzed in recent data. While the
   propensity for discrete convection is unclear due to storm motions
   along the surface boundary and several updrafts in close proximity,
   the environment is supportive of a tornado threat. A tornado watch
   is likely in the next hour to address this concern.

   ..Moore/Thompson.. 06/13/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

 

95% probability of a watch is pretty impressive.

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3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah.  I'm not one to hyberbole too much, but if there was a setup that could do that... :yikes:

The overnight LOT afd had actually mentioned a conditional sig tor threat for anything near the boundary.  Hard to disagree given the parameters.

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