yoda Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Watch issued... hail to 2" and winds to at least 80mph per the disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 356 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Indiana Southwest Lower Michigan Northwest Ohio Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 520 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of severe storms over southern Lake Michigan will likely maintain intensity and could grow upscale into a bowing cluster over the next few hours while moving into southwest Lower Michigan, and eventually northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio. These storms will have the potential to produce swaths of significant severe outflow gusts of at least 80 mph, along with large hail of 1.5 to 2 inches in diameter. A secondary threat will be the potential for an isolated tornado or two with embedded circulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 80/70 wind probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Some activity has also developed in far northern IL, but how much this can do with increasingly hostile capping is questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Tornado Watch for SE WI and NE IL coming w/in the hour -- pretty much the CHI metro -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1148.html Mesoscale Discussion 1148 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0538 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Areas affected...Northeast Illinois...southeast Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 132238Z - 140045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing in a very unstable and highly sheared environment. A tornado watch will likely be needed to address this concern. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along a warm frontal boundary across northern IL within the past hour. The downstream environment remains highly unstable per latest RAP mesoanalysis (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE), and VWP observations from KLOT show around 200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. These observations support latest 6+ STP estimates that were recently analyzed in recent data. While the propensity for discrete convection is unclear due to storm motions along the surface boundary and several updrafts in close proximity, the environment is supportive of a tornado threat. A tornado watch is likely in the next hour to address this concern. ..Moore/Thompson.. 06/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Watching cell roll in off the lake at south haven. Will have to dart for the nearest gas station canopy if its a hailer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Just now, frostfern said: Watching cell roll in off the lake at south haven. Will have to dart for the nearest gas station canopy if its a hailer. Take a pic of you can that area is a hell of an area to watch for storms rolling off the lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Ok then 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Tornado Watch for SE WI and NE IL coming w/in the hour -- pretty much the CHI metro -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1148.html Mesoscale Discussion 1148 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0538 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Areas affected...Northeast Illinois...southeast Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 132238Z - 140045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing in a very unstable and highly sheared environment. A tornado watch will likely be needed to address this concern. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along a warm frontal boundary across northern IL within the past hour. The downstream environment remains highly unstable per latest RAP mesoanalysis (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE), and VWP observations from KLOT show around 200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. These observations support latest 6+ STP estimates that were recently analyzed in recent data. While the propensity for discrete convection is unclear due to storm motions along the surface boundary and several updrafts in close proximity, the environment is supportive of a tornado threat. A tornado watch is likely in the next hour to address this concern. ..Moore/Thompson.. 06/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN... 95% probability of a watch is pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Some activity has also developed in far northern IL, but how much this can do with increasingly hostile capping is questionable. Those storms are already getting that look to them. If I was chasing I'd want to be on them very shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Let’s go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Ok then I guess we're about to find out if it's too warm in the mid-levels to keep things more subdued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Hazy but menacing. Hear soft rumbles. Have to plan an escape if it looks like hail. Got to hurry. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, frostfern said: Hazy but menacing. Hear soft rumbles. Have to plan an escape if it looks like hail. Got to hurry. Damn dude that is mean looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Already a broad area of rotation on that large Elgin sup. Tops over 54kft now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Just now, cyclone77 said: Already a broad area of rotation on that large Elgin sup. Tops over 54kft now as well. Hail spike too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Tornado watch issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Hail spike too Nice. Looks like there's an OFB out ahead of it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 More cells starting to fire over lake Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Yea that storm has the lake breeze, whether or not it can turn right and ride it is probably the difference between nothing happening and a major tornado in the chicago metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Just now, hlcater said: Yea that storm has the lake breeze, whether or not it can turn right and ride it is probably the difference between nothing happening and a major tornado in the chicago metro. And warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Just now, hlcater said: Yea that storm has the lake breeze, whether or not it can turn right and ride it is probably the difference between nothing happening and a major tornado in the chicago metro. Yeah. I'm not one to hyberbole too much, but if there was a setup that could do that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah. I'm not one to hyberbole too much, but if there was a setup that could do that... still broad, but intensifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 And a couplet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Pounding rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah. I'm not one to hyberbole too much, but if there was a setup that could do that... The overnight LOT afd had actually mentioned a conditional sig tor threat for anything near the boundary. Hard to disagree given the parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: And a couplet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Got word that there's a tornado in progress with that storm now. Now he's less sure that it was a tornado. Radar appearance suggests that it may not be ready quite yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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