SchaumburgStormer Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, frostfern said: This cell is getting organized and tapping some surface instability. This one is going to be an issue for the Milwaukee metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 I am also concerned about the 700 mb cap in IL and IA and whether it will SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 311 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2022 WIC025-027-055-132115- /O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-220613T2115Z/ DANE WI-JEFFERSON WI-DODGE WI- 311 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR EASTERN DANE...JEFFERSON AND SOUTHERN DODGE COUNTIES... AT 310 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SUN PRAIRIE, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES, AND POWER LINES DOWN IN PARTS OF MADISON AND MIDDLETON. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES, ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... EASTERN MADISON, SUN PRAIRIE, FITCHBURG, WATERTOWN, STOUGHTON, FORT ATKINSON, OREGON, JEFFERSON, MCFARLAND, MONONA, LAKE MILLS, MARSHALL, WATERLOO, COTTAGE GROVE, JOHNSON CREEK, DEERFIELD, CAMBRIDGE, LAKE RIPLEY, IXONIA AND ROME. succeed in breaking later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 The question for me over the next couple hours is whether the Madison cell will be a graze job near the IL/WI border or if it can build more decisively into parts of Chi metro. Front is right through Cook county at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Moderate risk incoming... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 SPC now went moderate for north central and ne IN, nw OH and extreme southern MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Come on go for DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The question for me over the next couple hours is whether the Madison cell will be a graze job near the IL/WI border or if it can build more decisively into parts of Chi metro. Front is right through Cook county at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Ouch! 45% hatched for wind....hurricane force Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Wondering if that cell will eventually become the northern bookend of a bow. Or if it will remain discrete for a while. CAMS say the upscale growth will probably happen over Lake Michigan. I think the line will start to build build south into the extreme instability over northern Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I would've rather had DVN, but beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 SPC definitely seems to be leaning into those cells over southern WI growing upscale and taking advantage of the environment into this evening with that moderate upgrade. With that said, they also didn't trim the ENH at all (in fact, at least in the Cleveland area, they may have expanded it slightly farther northeast with this update). The stuff over Wisconsin, if it grows upscale, will dive SE into extreme SW MI, northern/eastern IN and into western OH, so I wonder if they're thinking another MCS tries developing tonight a litte farther north/east. That cap is probably breakable in northeast IL, but the activity over WI needs to start growing upscale pretty soon or else it may not do it into northeast IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 21 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The question for me over the next couple hours is whether the Madison cell will be a graze job near the IL/WI border or if it can build more decisively into parts of Chi metro. Front is right through Cook county at present. Not looking like its going to make it far enough south unless it takes a hard R turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Detroit NWS putting out a fun discussion (sorry for the screenshot at work atm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Cool and cloudy doa here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Where I am it definitely is overcast I believe the front is near? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Golfball size hail at the NWS MKX office. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Not looking like its going to make it far enough south unless it takes a hard R turn. Indeed. It only has the slightest south of due east motion right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Cool and cloudy doa here doa for different reasons. MKE is 63/59 and about to get rolled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 dead event for N / NE IL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Crazy amount of lightning with those storms in Southern WI. Nearly 700 strikes per minute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Almost all of the MKE metro looks get pick up some hail, largest being downtown and southern suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Golfball size hail at the NWS MKX office. They updated to 2.00" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Just now, Chicago Storm said: They updated to 2.00" Good, now it's officially a sig hail report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Part of the reason why this thing has struggled to grow upscale, besides the stable lower levels, is because the better ascent is fleecing with the MCV having already pushed into MI. Hopefully not a "too little, too late" situation. Even so, that cell means business for the relatively small area in its path with the shear in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 23 minutes ago, Powerball said: Crazy amount of lightning with those storms in Southern WI. Nearly 700 strikes per minute. Leaving my parents' house in Stoughton around 3 PM I could see 2, sometimes 3 CGs hitting at the same time straight ahead of me as I drove north on County N to the I-30/90 interchange. Of course, it stopped/moved on as soon as I got my phone set up on the dash mount and rolling video. Drove through the southern edge of the RFD region with a quick burst of near-blinding rain. Lots of leaves/small limbs down all the way down the Beltline Highway (at various point some combination of US 12/14/18/151) to the west side of Madison where my apartment is. Some medium limbs down on High Point Road but that's the worst I saw. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 MKE took a direct hit, but the best they did was G36MPH and 0.50" hail. Edit: Peak wind gust 59MPH more towards the back end of the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Some crapvection has recently fired in Porter county Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Ninja'd by Hoosier. Little cell south of Valpo trying to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 13, 2022 Author Share Posted June 13, 2022 Wouldn't be shocked at all to see that cell approaching Van Wert become tornadic. Nothing around it, cap is eroded there and decent shear, helicity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 STWatch coming shortly for S MI/NE IN/NW OH - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1147.html Mesoscale Discussion 1147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Areas affected...Parts of southern Lower Michigan...northern Indiana...and northwest Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 132149Z - 132345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon/evening. Damaging gusts will be the main concern, and a watch will likely be needed for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...As a large cluster of storms with a history of large hail and damaging winds continues tracking east-southeastward over southern Lake Michigan toward Lower Michigan, lower 70s dewpoints and filtered diurnal heating downstream should continue to destabilize surface-based inflow for this convective cluster. At the same time, the GRR VWP shows 60-70 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear, which should further aid in convective organization with east-southeastward extent. While convective evolution remains somewhat unclear owing to generally weak large-scale ascent, the downstream environment could support significant gusts if efficient upscale growth can aid in forward propagation and established rear-inflow jets. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued shortly for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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