nwohweather Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 I'll start to separate this from the general thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Mesoscale Discussion 1143 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Areas affected...East-Central IL...Central/Southern IN...Southwest OH...Northern KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 131729Z - 131930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts may develop over the next few hours. Potential exists for the development of a convective line capable of strong wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations across the Lower/Mid OH Valley sampled a very moist air mass, with dewpoints in the upper 70s/low 80s. Surface temperatures across this region have reached the low 90s. These low-level thermodynamic conditions beneath steep mid-level lapse rates is contributing to extreme instability. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE over 5000 J/kg and recent RAP soundings show a surface-based LI of -13 to -14 deg C. Mesoanalysis also indicates convective inhibition has eroded across much of the region, despite very warm low to mid-level temperatures. An area of deeper cumulus has developed just northeast of the strongest buoyancy, in the open warm sector well southwest of the warm front. Mesoanalysis reveals this cumulus is within an area of modest moisture convergence likely resultant from a subtle wind shift. Lighting has also been noted within this region during the last half hour. Given the thermodynamic conditions, very strong updrafts/downdrafts are possible. Moderate vertical shear is also in place, suggesting storm organization is possible. Evolution of this development is still uncertain, owing to the weak large-scale forcing for ascent and warm low to mid-level temperatures. However, the overall pattern and presence of extreme buoyancy suggest the potential exists for the development of a well-organized convective line. Most likely corridor for progression of this line would be across central/southern IN and into southwest OH and adjacent northern KY. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 13, 2022 Author Share Posted June 13, 2022 Absolutely stunning dewpoint readings. Central/Southern IN is as oppressive as it is in Charleston at the moment combined with good shear & lapse rates. I have to think we go Moderate once the line gets rolling into a bow echo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 We have been lucky here in nw IN this spring in escaping svr events. Our luck may soon be about to change. Those dews are horrendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, Indystorm said: We have been lucky here in nw IN this spring in escaping svr events. Our luck may soon be about to change. Those dews are horrendous. I *tend* to think that the main activity will be north of us at this point. That being said, latest HRRR blows up some healthy cells like right overhead later and the atmosphere is so volatile/explosive that we have to keep monitoring things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amt5626 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Thinking I ride this out in Toledo tonight. Might head back to CLE if it looks like best parameters favor a bit further east. First real severe threat I've been in for quite some time. Storms over Indiana now. CAMs failed there in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 13, 2022 Author Share Posted June 13, 2022 1 minute ago, amt5626 said: Thinking I ride this out in Toledo tonight. Might head back to CLE if it looks like best parameters favor a bit further east. First real severe threat I've been in for quite some time. Storms over Indiana now. CAMs failed there in the short range. Toledo or somewhere on US 6 or US 20 between Fremont & BG or Fremont & Perrysburg is your best bet. Very Oklahoma like setup with tons of open fields. Plus US 6 gives you the ability to head west without traffic if need be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 It is concerning that there's been no real organization yet with the MCV that's about to cross Lake Michigan. That, and the storms developing in Central IN may cut off moisture inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Powerball said: It is concerning that there's been no real organization yet with the MCV that's about to cross Lake Michigan. That, and the storms developing in Central IN may cut off moisture inflow. The activity in central IN would have to blow up big time to make me concerned about it robbing moisture for areas farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 It is concerning that there's been no real organization yet with the MCV that's about to cross Lake Michigan. That, and the storms developing in Central IN may cut off moisture inflow.The dual MCV’s are a lost cause at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0349 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Areas affected...Eastern Wisconsin...Northern Illinois...Southern Michigan Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 131800Z - 132300Z SUMMARY...Ongoing complex of thunderstorms to bring torrential rainfall rates to parts of the Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Areas of flash flooding are possible. DISCUSSION...17Z surface analysis continued to show a surface warm front inching north through the Midwest with increasingly unstable atmospheric profiles within the warm sector. Dew points are reaching the low 80s in parts of southern Illinois and 850mb moisture flux is increasing along and north of the front. The ongoing complex of thunderstorms associated with an MCV tracking into central Wisconsin will continue on an ESE trajectory this afternoon with convection forming along the strengthening MUCAPE gradient. MUCAPE will vary significantly by location, but range generally between 2,000-4,000 J/kg. PWs are also on the rise with values approaching 2.0" later this afternoon. RAP mesoanalysis and short term forecasts suggest effective bulk vertical wind shear will increase to 50-60 knots and effective SRH values from 100-200 m2/s2 this afternoon. These values are very favorable for keeping ongoing convection organized. As low level inflow intersects the front, additional strengthening of the convection is possible, along with the potential for intensifying convection on the southwest flank of the complex. Some areas, notably north of Milwaukee, in southwest Michigan, and northern Indiana have dealt with measurable rainfall over the last week. Soils are closer to normal saturation-wise, but they still have picked up 200-400% of normal rainfall over the last week. Given rainfall rates with the previous convective cluster in Minnesota had already produced >2"/hr rates, and the atmosphere contains similar favorable parameters, the expectation is for max hourly rainfall rates to range between 2-3"/hr. Areas most susceptible to flash flooding are the areas that contain more sensitive soils from rainfall over the past week, as well as urbanized centers and poor drainage locations. FFGs in these areas are as low as 1-1.5"/hr, which does include areas between Milwaukee and Green Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: It is concerning that there's been no real organization yet with the MCV that's about to cross Lake Michigan. That, and the storms developing in Central IN may cut off moisture inflow. That MCV is pretty weak at this point. It's got some clouds and light precip with it, but it's also pulling the front north a little. The surface cool layer in Wisconsin is partly due to wind off Lake Michigan. Maybe something will pop up in the SW corner of MI because of the lake breeze. CAPE is becoming more surface based there finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 I am also concerned about the 700 mb cap in IL and IA and whether it will succeed in breaking later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The activity in central IN would have to blow up big time to make me concerned about it robbing moisture for areas farther north. It's early and a big watch area. That Central IN activity could still blow up yet given the impressive low level convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 where's the front vs. where it was forecasted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The activity in central IN would have to blow up big time to make me concerned about it robbing moisture for areas farther north. Yea, the 925 mb inflow is west of that cluster. It would have to back-build across Illinois to really get in the way. Seems unlikely with a strong cap over Illinois. I think its way more likely it will just dive SE into Kentucky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, Indystorm said: I am also concerned about the 700 mb cap in IL and IA and whether it will succeed in breaking later today. It would be nice if somebody (say DVN) launched a special sounding before 00z to see how pronounced the capping is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 May be some 500mb support on the way for that Indiana cluster. South side of a 40-60kt streak moving quickly into the region, some fast moving showers seem to be forming on the periphery. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 We may finally be seeing signs of organization with the convection just west of Madison. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 The 12C isotherm at 700 mb seems like the boundary for where convection is overcoming the cap. If the cell near Madison is indicative of where an MCS could form, it might backbuild south into the more extreme instability over northern Indiana once it passes southern lake Michigan. Better shear is coming in from the west with time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 18z HRRR... talk about explosive development over Lake Michigan just after 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 The HRRR did have the strong cell trailing the stratiform precip moving through Dane County 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 The HRRR did have the strong cell trailing the stratiform precip moving through Dane CountyVelocities appear to be picking up with that cell, outside the southern edge of the warning polygon.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 19 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 18z HRRR... talk about explosive development over Lake Michigan just after 00z. I'm just debating if I should immediately drive down to the southern lake shore to watch when I get off work. Maybe Benton Harbor area. Still uncertainty though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Velocities appear to be picking up with that cell, outside the southern edge of the warning polygon. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Large Supercell forming from that cluster. Half inch hail at my house. RFD hitting downtown madison 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 This cell is getting organized and tapping some surface instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 1 minute ago, frostfern said: This cell is getting organized and tapping some surface instability. Still elevated based on the local temps and CIN on that mesoanalysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 New MCD says watch is coming for WI and far northeast IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, madwx said: Still elevated based on the local temps and CIN on that mesoanalysis Upward suction from mesocyclone can overcome quite a bit of surface CIN. The surface instability is/was pretty meager right there in Madison, but the big gradient is close enough if it turns a little to the right. I don't think the analysis captures a sharp gradient well. It smooths it. The lake-modified vs not lake modified boundary can be pretty sharp. There are breaks in the clouds and low 80s plus low 70s dews near the Illinois border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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