Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Hoosier]

Things can still change, but at this point I don't really see anything to stop heat from materializing especially as we head toward the middle of next week.  The big heat may not last long, but I think it's coming.  Dismissing the extreme GFS of course, but some areas of the sub should have a shot at triple digits.

[Chicago Storm]

The EPS sum up how this upcoming period will likely go.

[A-L-E-K]

couple warm days

[Hoosier]

Wednesday would offer semi-widespread 100 degree potential on the 12z Euro as a tongue of 30C 925 mb temps spreads eastward to Lake Michigan by late afternoon.  This is assuming it's right though, and at 6 days out there is plenty of time for that to back off even just a little.

[Hoosier]

Folks, the GFS is backing off... now only has 113 around Des Moines.

 

Progged temps in the central/eastern sub actually don't look all that unrealistic.  It's mainly farther west with that excessively deep boundary layer/mixing.

[Chicago Storm]

Expectations for that early August potential should probably be tempered for now, until we actually see the what strength of both the GOA/PAC and Hudson/Greendland troughing looks like as we get a it closer.

This upcoming period still does not impress this heat monger in terms of max heat potential.

It appears the consistent troughing across Hudson/Greenland/Great Lakes/Northeast will send frequent frontal intrusions through portions of the sub-forum, making for more of a roller coaster temperatures setup between warm and hot conditions. It definitely does not look at all like a prolonged heat wave for at least half of the sub-forum at this point due to the above.

The QC area on down to the STL area and into the OV is definitely in a better position for more prolonged heat wave than anywhere else in the sub-forum.

[Baum]

20 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

This upcoming period still does not impress this heat monger in terms of max heat potential.

It appears the consistent troughing across Hudson/Greenland/Great Lakes/Northeast will send frequent frontal intrusions through portions of the sub-forum, making for more of a roller coaster temperatures setup between warm and hot conditions. It definitely does not look at all like a prolonged heat wave for at least half of the sub-forum at this point due to the above.

The QC area on down to the STL area and into the OV is definitely in a better position for more prolonged heat wave than anywhere else in the sub-forum.

local forecast concurs. A gradual step up to one day of heat on Wednesday, a chance of storms on a frontal passage, and back to low humidity, clear skies, and around 80 degrees. Can't beat it.

[Chicago Storm]

On 7/14/2022 at 12:08 AM, Chicago Storm said:

Time for an update, though there's really not much to update...

 

Things have gone fairly close to expectations over the past few weeks, since the above update in late June. Looking forward, the next few weeks through the end of the month don't look too significantly different from the pattern we are in/have been in. There will continue to be persistent troughing in the vicinity of the GOA on down into the PAC NW...Which is a continuation of what has been occurring the past few weeks. It does appear the persistent ridging that has been seen the past few weeks in W and/or C Canada will tone down, so that is one change. Persistent troughing will also continue across the Hudson/Greenland/Great Lakes/Northeast regions as well, with a bit of ridging at times popping up around part of Greenland/Arctic regions...All of which is also a continuation of what has been occurring the past few weeks as well. 

 

All in all, this will continue to lead to a lot of what we have been seeing already this month... The main ridge/heat dome will continue to be centered across the Inter-Mountain West/Central and Southern Plains, and possibly into the Southeast at times. This will continue to keep most of this sub-forum in a more northwestly flow pattern, with an average to active weather pattern. This also means the most consistently hot temperatures will continue to be limited to the far southwestern portions of the sub-forum, with hotter conditions elsewhere being short lived ahead of passing storm systems.

It's been a while since the last full update, though I've mentioned some tidbits here at there regarding the first part of August and not being onboard with the heat train.

The previous full update above worked out pretty close to what was expected. However, for the very tail end of July (Final full week and weekend) we actually flipped briefly to a different pattern. That pattern continued to feature the well established/persistent/significant troughing across the Hudson/Greenland/Great Lakes/Northeast region, but the troughing that had been persistent across the GOA/PAC NW was replaced by ridging. This allowed for a cooler and drier week for much of the sub-forum (Minus far southern areas with the heavy rain/flooding that occurred).

This week to start August we have reverted back to the previous pattern, which has been around much of the summer. As mentioned numerous times over the past few months, this pattern features well established and persistent/significant troughing in the Hudson/Greenland/Great Lakes/Northeast region, as well as persistent (But less significant) troughing in the GOA/PAC NW region. The main ridging continues to be sandwiched between, across the Inter-Mountain West/Plains and extending into the Southeast at times. All in all, this will lead to similar conditions as to what we have seen much of this summer for both early and middle August. The one exception appears to be around this upcoming weekend (Aug 6-7th ish). There will be another flex of the main ridge, as both areas of aforementioned persistent troughing briefly relax, allowing for ridging to briefly poke into much more of the sub-forum, along with a brief push of hotter conditions. Outside of that, the same summer pattern we have seen will generally continue.

[Chicago Storm]

Not to go all Spartman, but the high of 95 at ORD/MDW this past Saturday was 'probably' the last 90+ day this month for Chicago.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Not to go all Spartman, but the high of 95 at ORD/MDW this past Saturday was 'probably' the last 90+ day this month for Chicago.

Spartman West

That's a lot of days left to cover.  Could easily stumble into one or two at some point, like out ahead of a storm system.

[cyclone77]

44 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Not to go all Spartman, but the high of 95 at ORD/MDW this past Saturday was 'probably' the last 90+ day this month for Chicago.

Only if u include some model maps of the southeast 

[Chicago Storm]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Spartman West

That's a lot of days left to cover.  Could easily stumble into one or two at some point, like out ahead of a storm system.

With the way the pattern is looking through the beginning portion of the end of the month, it definitely isn't going to be any time soon at the least.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

With the way the pattern is looking through the beginning portion of the end of the month, it definitely isn't going to be any time soon at the least.

I ran the stats and since ORD became the official ob site in 1980, 26/42 years have had at least 1 day of 90+ between August 16-31.  So climo is in favor of it happening, but not necessarily overwhelmingly as it means that nearly 40% of back halves of August have not had a temp of 90+

[Chicago Storm]

On 8/3/2022 at 4:43 PM, Chicago Storm said:

It's been a while since the last full update, though I've mentioned some tidbits here at there regarding the first part of August and not being onboard with the heat train.

The previous full update above worked out pretty close to what was expected. However, for the very tail end of July (Final full week and weekend) we actually flipped briefly to a different pattern. That pattern continued to feature the well established/persistent/significant troughing across the Hudson/Greenland/Great Lakes/Northeast region, but the troughing that had been persistent across the GOA/PAC NW was replaced by ridging. This allowed for a cooler and drier week for much of the sub-forum (Minus far southern areas with the heavy rain/flooding that occurred).

This week to start August we have reverted back to the previous pattern, which has been around much of the summer. As mentioned numerous times over the past few months, this pattern features well established and persistent/significant troughing in the Hudson/Greenland/Great Lakes/Northeast region, as well as persistent (But less significant) troughing in the GOA/PAC NW region. The main ridging continues to be sandwiched between, across the Inter-Mountain West/Plains and extending into the Southeast at times. All in all, this will lead to similar conditions as to what we have seen much of this summer for both early and middle August. The one exception appears to be around this upcoming weekend (Aug 6-7th ish). There will be another flex of the main ridge, as both areas of aforementioned persistent troughing briefly relax, allowing for ridging to briefly poke into much more of the sub-forum, along with a brief push of hotter conditions. Outside of that, the same summer pattern we have seen will generally continue.

Intermediate update time...

The below two images will sum things up fairly well, but the pattern we have seen much of this summer is becoming more significant and entrenched. There is high/very good agreement in this pattern being around into at least half of the late month period. If you're looking for interesting weather or deep summer weather, you're going to be disappointed.

 

[Spartman]

On 8/12/2022 at 4:54 PM, Chicago Storm said:

Intermediate update time...

The below two images will sum things up fairly well, but the pattern we have seen much of this summer is becoming more significant and entrenched. There is high/very good agreement in this pattern being around into at least half of the late month period. If you're looking for interesting weather or deep summer weather, you're going to be disappointed.

 

Summer is over

[Spartman]

Scott Sabol in Cleveland tweeted this back on Thursday:

 

[hardypalmguy]

Later next week looks fun.

[Chicago Storm]

Later next week looks fun.

too bad that’s not realistic.

[hardypalmguy]

4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

too bad that’s not realistic.

Sure is and we've had just as warm 2 weeks later in 2017.

[Chicago Storm]

Sure is and we've had just as warm 2 weeks later in 2017.

it’s not realistic because of the issues the GFS is having, not because it can’t or never has happened.

[Hoosier]

About half of that map is "realistic" (as in possible at that time of year) and half isn't.  

[cyclone77]

Without looking at soundings I'm guessing mixing is into the ionosphere lol.

[mjwise]

34 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Without looking at soundings I'm guessing mixing is into the ionosphere lol.

I glanced at a few model soundings and it looked like it was mixing to something like 550mb or 600mb in the plains. It's done this a few (or more...) times this year. Mixing is only part of the problem though. The GFS in the medium to long range tends to get constipated and just amplifies existing features in situ beyond all reasonable bounds. It's not just ridges; the GFS amplified some mega-cutoffs in the spring/early summer too where a ULL would just sit and spin and get deeper and deeper at 500mb for days on end.

[madwx]

17 minutes ago, mjwise said:

I glanced at a few model soundings and it looked like it was mixing to something like 550mb or 600mb in the plains. It's done this a few (or more...) times this year. Mixing is only part of the problem though. The GFS in the medium to long range tends to get constipated and just amplifies existing features in situ beyond all reasonable bounds. It's not just ridges; the GFS amplified some mega-cutoffs in the spring/early summer too where a ULL would just sit and spin and get deeper and deeper at 500mb for days on end.

yeah, a few days ago it had some places only having highs in the teens in Alaska,  has rebounded to showing those same places in the upper 40s to low 50s now