beavis1729 Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 48 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Oh my God, I actually posted that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 31 minutes ago, Powerball said: I've heard rumblings that we could be looking at a El Nino come winter, and that outlook would go completely against the grain. Granted, ENSO predictability is still not great at this time range, but I feel like there's almost no chance of there being an official El Nino this winter. Just don't think the warming will occur fast enough. I think it's a warm neutral at best, but wouldn't be surprised if it's cold neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 extended looks good, avoiding the death ridge is going to be a major win 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 ...It still looks plenty warm, even if we are not sitting directly under the ridge axis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 ....but the really bad news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 haters imo^ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 Maybe not death ridge, but I anticipate a day or two well into the 90s next week (by that I mean at least mid 90s). Good candidate for that would be around Tuesday or Wednesday. Some other days in the low 90s or 90ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 GFS trying to bring back the death ridge in the super extended. We need to get death ridged at some point. It's not right for the areas west of us to bear the burden alone. We need to feel what they are feeling. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 Looks fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: GFS trying to bring back the death ridge in the super extended. We need to get death ridged at some point. It's not right for the areas west of us to bear the burden alone. We need to feel what they are feeling. 12z GFS shows high temps of 105-115 in Oklahoma for a week straight. Bring back the 1930s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomp2mp Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said: Looks fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 37 minutes ago, thomp2mp said: ^^^Definitely a classic. R.I.P Sears... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 14, 2022 Author Share Posted July 14, 2022 On 6/28/2022 at 1:37 PM, Chicago Storm said: We have transitioned from two back-to-back heat waves during the middle portion of June, to a drier (DP wise) and more tranquil temperature regime, which began last week. This change mostly has to do with what has been going up in Canada and the northern half of the Northern Hemisphere, which is a very convoluted pattern of sorts. With this new pattern that we've slipped into since last week and that looks to continue through much of the first 1/4th of July (We'll have to see how the 2/4th of July trends, looks like we see a shit of sorts), the teleconections overall will be -EPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO...But its not actually a full on pattern that resembles that teleconnection combo. Instead, what we have is a large area of troughing that has been and will continue to hang around the Hudson region, with some ridging that has been overtopping it at times in the Greenland area, sort of acting like a weak -NAO...not all consistent with +NAO showing up in the teleconnections. Additionally, there has been and will continue to be constant troughing in the GOA region, with some ridging across Western Canada and up into E Alaska. So while teleconnections show a -EPO, that setup is more along the lines of a +EPO. As for the -PNA shown on the teleconnections, that is probably the only one being depicted accurately at face value, as the GOA low has and will continue to sag into the PAC NW...So there is a -PNA, just not a deep one (As we often see in winter, with troughs deeper into the SW US). So what all of that nonsense means is that the core of the ridging will be centered from the Desert SW, through the S Plains and into the Southeast, with constant troughing/storm systems/fronts and W and NW flow moving across the Midwest/Great Lakes/Northeast. Essentially it is a pattern that should be wetter overall in the region, compared to what we have seen much of June...Though there will obviously still be areas that miss out, we all know that's how it is every summer. Those looking for more/consistent severe wx chances, I'm not enthused overall. As for temperatures, they should continue to range from tranquil to warm, with the warmer pushes being ahead of any approaching storm systems...With temperature departures overall being around to above average still, though cooler night lows might play a role in altering that a bit. Time for an update, though there's really not much to update... Things have gone fairly close to expectations over the past few weeks, since the above update in late June. Looking forward, the next few weeks through the end of the month don't look too significantly different from the pattern we are in/have been in. There will continue to be persistent troughing in the vicinity of the GOA on down into the PAC NW...Which is a continuation of what has been occurring the past few weeks. It does appear the persistent ridging that has been seen the past few weeks in W and/or C Canada will tone down, so that is one change. Persistent troughing will also continue across the Hudson/Greenland/Great Lakes/Northeast regions as well, with a bit of ridging at times popping up around part of Greenland/Arctic regions...All of which is also a continuation of what has been occurring the past few weeks as well. All in all, this will continue to lead to a lot of what we have been seeing already this month... The main ridge/heat dome will continue to be centered across the Inter-Mountain West/Central and Southern Plains, and possibly into the Southeast at times. This will continue to keep most of this sub-forum in a more northwestly flow pattern, with an average to active weather pattern. This also means the most consistently hot temperatures will continue to be limited to the far southwestern portions of the sub-forum, with hotter conditions elsewhere being short lived ahead of passing storm systems. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 I'm just keeping my fingers crossed for next Wednesday's low to track across northern lower MI like the 18z GFS now shows. Really really need a solid squall line or training MCS, though it will probably be non-drought-busting hit-and-miss severe cells yet again given its summer 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 these nw flow patterns always end up having embedded subtle waves that mcs but are hard to resolve on mid range guidance, not a banger pattern tho and just glad to be avoiding the total death ridge that will probably start making headlines over ok/tx 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: these nw flow patterns always end up having embedded subtle waves that mcs but are hard to resolve on mid range guidance, not a banger pattern tho and just glad to be avoiding the total death ridge that will probably start making headlines over ok/tx I keep seeing that term crop up. My understanding of the phrase "death ridge" among the wx nerd community is that's a ridge in May or June that shuts down chase season prematurely (or basically the pattern seen for the better part of the last six or so springs, although the failure mode isn't always ridging per se). After the summer solstice, it's kind of an expected feature of Plains weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: I keep seeing that term crop up. My understanding of the phrase "death ridge" among the wx nerd community is that's a ridge in May or June that shuts down chase season prematurely (or basically the pattern seen for the better part of the last six or so springs, although the failure mode isn't always ridging per se). After the summer solstice, it's kind of an expected feature of Plains weather. It's just a slang term for an unusually strong & stagnant upper level High Pressure center producing unusually warm temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 GFS gone wild again in the extended. Some of it is less than 10 days out, so will be interesting to see how it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 I go Spartman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 17, 2022 Author Share Posted July 17, 2022 A lot of over-mixing there.The GFS has done horribly in the short range with that across the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 GFS gonna GFS. I trust tarot cards more than the GFS beyond 48hrs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 About a 35-40 degree swing between the 00z and 12z run in some areas. Probably can toss both runs in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Booooring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Beautiful weather week incoming. I'm ready for it after the periodic cloudy wet periods we've had over the past 10 days or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 yeah woke up to more showers, looking nice and green and ready for some summer. pass on that prolonged triple digit stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 gfs and euro both selling a nw flow pattern next weekend that looks promising 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 45 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: gfs and euro both selling a nw flow pattern next weekend that looks promising More 50s and stratiform rain for me during daylight hours? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 probably 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 4 hours ago, hardypalmguy said: More 50s and stratiform rain for me during daylight hours? hate to say it. but palms thrive in that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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