Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CheeselandSkies]

July 2009 was the worst summer month I experienced.

Yeah, it was not good.

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[Powerball]

On 6/30/2022 at 9:48 PM, CheeselandSkies said:

Yeah, it was not good.

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As bad as July 2009 was, it still could have been worse (1992).

[Hoosier]

Seems likely that it's going to get hot in the extended.  I think the bigger question is whether it is something that is sort of a run of the mill heat that we get with some frequency, or something more exotic that will be remembered for a long time.

[Torchageddon]

On 7/2/2022 at 4:15 PM, Powerball said:

As bad as July 2009 was, it still could have been worse (1992).

So glad I was too young to remember the stench that was the summer of '92

[nwohweather]

So glad I was too young to remember the stench that was the summer of '92

If I’m not mistaken that was followed by an active Fall severe weather season as well. I remember 2018 being a pretty hot year as Toledo reached 90° 44 times which is impressive as hell considering it’s proximity to the lake.

What I couldn’t imagine up there would be the heat waves during the Dust Bowl. I’d love to see what those surface maps looked like with the Great Plains essentially being Phoenix East.

I do say all of this by the way while sitting at my pool in Charleston with current conditions of 91°/77° so I’m definitely jealous of your June-August climo

[Torchageddon]

15 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

If I’m not mistaken that was followed by an active Fall severe weather season as well. I remember 2018 being a pretty hot year as Toledo reached 90° 44 times which is impressive as hell considering it’s proximity to the lake.

What I couldn’t imagine up there would be the heat waves during the Dust Bowl. I’d love to see what those surface maps looked like with the Great Plains essentially being Phoenix East.

I do say all of this by the way while sitting at my pool in Charleston with current conditions of 91°/77° so I’m definitely jealous of your June-August climo

Usually terrible summers like that one have a bit of a balancing out with a warmer Sept or Fall, also some nice Springs like in the 70s. June-Aug climo is good here but you have decent Spring/Fall where here we don't. 3 good months out of 12 still means a sucky climate here near the Lakes in SON.

[nwohweather]

Usually terrible summers like that one have a bit of a balancing out with a warmer Sept or Fall, also some nice Springs like in the 70s. June-Aug climo is good here but you have decent Spring/Fall where here we don't. 3 good months out of 12 still means a sucky climate here near the Lakes in SON.

Ahh that’s a good point. Hell I’d even see hard gradients when I lived in NW Ohio. There’d be April days where you’d see temps of 55° in Toledo with an east wind but 75° around Findlay/Lima. It’s truly amazing how different places like Toledo/Cleveland are compared to even Columbus in climate

[Hoosier]

Pretty hot look on the 12z EPS out in the extended, given the long lead time.

The best signal for the hottest/most persistent heat is more toward the Plains, which is pretty much climo anyway.  The more toward the Lakes you are, the more uncertain things get as far as intensity/duration.

[A-L-E-K]

endless 70s and low 80s on the horizon

best climo

[frostfern]

On 7/10/2022 at 5:29 AM, A-L-E-K said:

endless 70s and low 80s on the horizon

best climo

zzzzzz….   Need the heat and humidity or it doesn’t ever rain here.

[frostfern]

On 7/9/2022 at 7:09 PM, Hoosier said:

Pretty hot look on the 12z EPS out in the extended, given the long lead time.

The best signal for the hottest/most persistent heat is more toward the Plains, which is pretty much climo anyway.  The more toward the Lakes you are, the more uncertain things get as far as intensity/duration.

More turdy dry NW flow.  Becoming a desert here.  

[Chicago Storm]

zzzzzz….   Need the heat and humidity or it doesn’t ever rain here.

we get it.

[Hoosier]

Huge flip flop between the 6z and 12z GFS around 240 hours.

[A-L-E-K]

cool and wet, nice

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

cool and wet, nice

Euro looks nothing like the GFS for next weekend.  Let's see if it flips or if the GFS is on crack.  The GFS is kind of an odd look for a July system (though not impossible)

[A-L-E-K]

looks wet

[Hoosier]

16 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

looks wet

Still nothing like GFS.

[A-L-E-K]

4"-6" imby

 

[Chicago Storm]

4"-6" imby
 

under.

definitely going to have mixing concerns.

[A-L-E-K]

gonna pay for all that early season warmth

[hawkeye_wx]

The big heatwave on the GFS is gone, replaced by continued nw flow.  This morning's run has Cedar Rapids touching 90º once the rest of the month.

[A-L-E-K]

cool and wet

 

[Hoosier]

53 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The big heatwave on the GFS is gone, replaced by continued nw flow.  This morning's run has Cedar Rapids touching 90º once the rest of the month.

Questionable

[Hoosier]

53 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

cool and wet

 

You could will it into existence if you say it enough.

[hardypalmguy]

hope it's warm and dry dec - feb.

[A-L-E-K]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

You could will it into existence if you say it enough.

Skills obv

[luckyweather]

hope it's warm and dry dec - feb.

ban

[Hoosier]

You'd take your chances with this look if you like winter.  But it's the CFS a half year out, so...

 

[Hoosier]

Oh my God, I actually posted that.

[Powerball]

28 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You'd take your chances with this look if you like winter.  But it's the CFS a half year out, so...

 

I've heard rumblings that we could be looking at a El Nino come winter, and that outlook would go completely against the grain.