Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Chicago Storm]

[Hoosier]

Quality

[Hoosier]

Question for people who see the corn on a regular basis.  How high is it right now?  I can't imagine it's that tall yet but just curious.  

I sort of wonder if bringing in this airmass in mid June instead of next month w/more mature corn may allow it to outperform expectations a little bit in the max T department.  That is a boiling airmass aloft by time we get to Tuesday and even somewhat pedestrian mixing to 850 mb would suggest some spots in the sub making a run at triple digits.

[madwx]

32 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Question for people who see the corn on a regular basis.  How high is it right now?  I can't imagine it's that tall yet but just curious.  

I sort of wonder if bringing in this airmass in mid June instead of next month w/more mature corn may allow it to outperform expectations a little bit in the max T department.  That is a boiling airmass aloft by time we get to Tuesday and even somewhat pedestrian mixing to 850 mb would suggest some spots in the sub making a run at triple digits.

In southern wisconsin it’s still short, around ankle height.  Not the knee high by the 4th of June that we had gotten used to in the years before 2021 

[cyclone77]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Question for people who see the corn on a regular basis.  How high is it right now?  I can't imagine it's that tall yet but just curious.  

I sort of wonder if bringing in this airmass in mid June instead of next month w/more mature corn may allow it to outperform expectations a little bit in the max T department.  That is a boiling airmass aloft by time we get to Tuesday and even somewhat pedestrian mixing to 850 mb would suggest some spots in the sub making a run at triple digits.

Despite the lack of heat lately it's growing pretty quickly.  Most fields have it at over a foot tall.  The regular rains are helping.  I'd say it's been an ideal growing season so far except for the slight delay in planting early on due to cold temps.

We had dews in the 75-77 range in May so an 80+ dew wouldn't shock me at this point.

[bowtie`]

Around this area, calling it ankle height might be generous. But a couple of the first in fields are at that height. Here recently the rains have been skipping past and it is starting to get dry around here. My grass is turning brown already. That is starting to really slow down the rate of growth even in the corn. Of course, with the bad news there is also good news. When the condition get dry, the tap root of the corn goes kind of crazy at the expense of the part that makes you money. You end up with a plant that is more resistant to late season wind storms 

[WestMichigan]

Ranges from about ankle high to just coming out of the ground around here.

[Hoosier]

After a bit of a break late next week, it appears that big heat surges back a few days later.

[Hoosier]

It may not be flirting with 100, but the large scale signals aren't exactly arguing in the direction of cool as we head toward the last week of the month.

[Hoosier]

I don't pay a lot of attention to the particular product, but if you're a fan of dry/drought, you'll like the Euro weeklies esp from Lake Michigan south/west.

[frostfern]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I don't pay a lot of attention to the particular product, but if you're a fan of dry/drought, you'll like the Euro weeklies esp from Lake Michigan south/west.

Boo.

[Torchageddon]

Great stuff!! 

[CheeselandSkies]

I don't pay a lot of attention to the particular product, but if you're a fan of dry/drought, you'll like the Euro weeklies esp from Lake Michigan south/west.

Yuck.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[frostfern]

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Yuck.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

You'll do fine.  Wisconsin always gets thunderstorms.  It's just Lake Michigan will be killing everything before it reaches this side.  Only supercells and massive severe bows get here.  The garden variety stuff always shits the bed over the lake.

[Hoosier]

The D word (not derecho) makes an appearance in the afternoon LOT afd.  

 

Ensemble model guidance suggests the upper-level ridge will quickly
break down into quasi-zonal flow from Wednesday onward as a potent
storm-system tracks into the western United States. Such an
evolution of the upper-level pattern typically leads to a frontal
boundary stalling somewhere in the vicinity, which would then serve
as a focus for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Pinpointing where the front will stall is a somewhat futile effort
at this range, so will stick to the inherited forecast and carry
low chances (20-30%) for precipitation from Wednesday onward. If
the front slips south of our area and we end up largely dry (which
is somewhat favored by ensemble guidance), concern for rapid
drought development would increase given the recent stretch of
above-normal temperatures and for many, below-normal rainfall.

Borchardt

[frostfern]

I find this heat + no thunder stuff so boring.

[Hoosier]

LOT afternoon afd again mentioned increasing concern about heading toward a flash drought.  I don't know the last time that I saw such persistence about flagging that kind of thing at this lead time.  That is multiple afds in a row.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

On 6/18/2022 at 4:11 PM, Hoosier said:

LOT afternoon afd again mentioned increasing concern about heading toward a flash drought.  I don't know the last time that I saw such persistence about flagging that kind of thing at this lead time.  That is multiple afds in a row.

MSP has been mentioning a flash drought developing in numerous AFDs over the past 10 days. We’ve fallen 0.70” below average year to date and over 2” below average for June. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

[frostfern]

zzzzzzzzzzz...................  Have to wait until sometime around June 30th for even the possibility of anything of note.  

[Chicago Storm]

We have transitioned from two back-to-back heat waves during the middle portion of June, to a drier (DP wise) and more tranquil temperature regime, which began last week. This change mostly has to do with what has been going up in Canada and the northern half of the Northern Hemisphere, which is a very convoluted pattern of sorts. With this new pattern that we've slipped into since last week and that looks to continue through much of the first 1/4th of July (We'll have to see how the 2/4th of July trends, looks like we see a shit of sorts), the teleconections overall will be -EPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO...But its not actually a full on pattern that resembles that teleconnection combo. Instead, what we have is a large area of troughing that has been and will continue to hang around the Hudson region, with some ridging that has been overtopping it at times in the Greenland area, sort of acting like a weak -NAO...not all consistent with +NAO showing up in the teleconnections. Additionally, there has been and will continue to be constant troughing in the GOA region, with some ridging across Western Canada and up into E Alaska. So while teleconnections show a -EPO, that setup is more along the lines of a +EPO. As for the -PNA shown on the teleconnections, that is probably the only one being depicted accurately at face value, as the GOA low has and will continue to sag into the PAC NW...So there is a -PNA, just not a deep one (As we often see in winter, with troughs deeper into the SW US).

 

So what all of that nonsense means is that the core of the ridging will be centered from the Desert SW, through the S Plains and into the Southeast, with constant troughing/storm systems/fronts and W and NW flow moving across the Midwest/Great Lakes/Northeast. Essentially it is a pattern that should be wetter overall in the region, compared to what we have seen much of June...Though there will obviously still be areas that miss out, we all know that's how it is every summer. Those looking for more/consistent severe wx chances, I'm not enthused overall. As for temperatures, they should continue to range from tranquil to warm, with the warmer pushes being ahead of any approaching storm systems...With temperature departures overall being around to above average still, though cooler night lows might play a role in altering that a bit.

[hardypalmguy]

Oh boy.  So we will continue to get low dews and hurricane like west winds ripping apart my garden on the regular.  Nice.

[Hoosier]

I'm curious about what happens out around mid-July and beyond.  There are some signs of more persistent hotter wx then, but it's so far out and subject to change.

[Chicago Storm]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I'm curious about what happens out around mid-July and beyond.  There are some signs of more persistent hotter wx then, but it's so far out and subject to change.

If you take the Euro weeklies at face value, it has the ridge building northward across the Rockies and Plains. While not directly over us, we would still benefit.

We’ll see how it all trends as we get closer and more into ENS range.

[CheeselandSkies]

So what's limiting the severe wx chances, given that we're in the W/NW flow? Usually this time of year it's massive ridging and no shear/dynamics.

[frostfern]

4 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

So what's limiting the severe wx chances, given that we're in the W/NW flow? Usually this time of year it's massive ridging and no shear/dynamics.

Meh.  Really need more of that "flat ridge" (semi-zonal but very warm/hot just south) pattern to get widespread convection with severe possibilities.  No amplified NW flow, no trough, and no amplified ridge extending up into Canada.  Those are the three dominant patterns this summer, unfortunately.

[hardypalmguy]

6 hours ago, frostfern said:

Meh.  Really need more of that "flat ridge" (semi-zonal but very warm/hot just south) pattern to get widespread convection with severe possibilities.  No amplified NW flow, no trough, and no amplified ridge extending up into Canada.  Those are the three dominant patterns this summer, unfortunately.

Could be worse I guess.  Could have a cutoff low sit over us for a few weeks.

[CheeselandSkies]

Could be worse I guess.  Could have a cutoff low sit over us for a few weeks.

Like July 2009.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[hardypalmguy]

20 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Like July 2009.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

July 2009 was the worst summer month I experienced.

[frostfern]

Looks like a major miss-south pattern for me next week.  Just can't win anything this year.  zzzzzzzz