Hottest Weather So Far Lies Ahead for Phoenix

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Not just Texas, while PHX may see Summer monsoon rains, wildfires should become an issue soon.

[arizonasooner]

Okay I know this is anecdotal, but I have lived in Phoenix for the last 28 years or so, and this year has simply not seemed that hot, compared to 1996 or 2020. I can remember being outside at 11 pm in 1996 late July and it was over 110F. And 2020 nearly killed all of the plants in my yard.

But this year I have cucumbers, okra, and some odd melon plant still growing in my garden. Granted I live on the outskirts of town at a slightly higher elevation than the Phoenix airport.

I think the anomalous high low temps at the airport are due to the urban heat island effect. The valley is much more paved than it was 20 years ago. 

So up here in the north valley, it's just another summer...

[donsutherland1]

July 2022 was tied as the 7th hottest July and 10th hottest month on record in Phoenix.

[arizonasooner]

Ok here's what is remarkable about this July. The 96.7F mean temperature is only 1.2 degrees F above the current 30-year average of 95.5F. That's probably why it has seemed "not so hot" to me, as I have only lived in Phoenix for about 30 years. Also interesting is the fact that the last 8 days have been below average temperature, so without the current cool spell, this July would have turned out much worse. And finally, the valley had 14 days of a trace or more of rain in the month - while Sky Harbor did not get much, Deer Valley, up by me got 1.73 inches for the month. So yes, this was a slightly warmer than normal month, but it has also been a little wetter than normal at my house.

[donsutherland1]

On 8/1/2022 at 10:46 AM, arizonasooner said:

Ok here's what is remarkable about this July. The 96.7F mean temperature is only 1.2 degrees F above the current 30-year average of 95.5F. That's probably why it has seemed "not so hot" to me, as I have only lived in Phoenix for about 30 years. Also interesting is the fact that the last 8 days have been below average temperature, so without the current cool spell, this July would have turned out much worse. And finally, the valley had 14 days of a trace or more of rain in the month - while Sky Harbor did not get much, Deer Valley, up by me got 1.73 inches for the month. So yes, this was a slightly warmer than normal month, but it has also been a little wetter than normal at my house.

The 1991-20 normal is up 0.7 degrees from the previous baseline. The monsoonal cooling knocked down the overall monthly mean. The first 22 and 23 days were actually the hottest such periods on record for July.

[donsutherland1]

Today is all but certain to be Phoenix's 50th day with a minimum temperature of 80° or above. There has been a dramatic increase in the number of such days each year on account of a combination of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect and climate change. The 30-year moving average for such days is below.

[raindancewx]

The dumbest thing about these threads is that they never mention moisture. Our wettest Summers always prevent lows from collapsing overnight, and so they tend to not ever be super cold, even if the rain is excessive and frequent. Average temperature in the SW behaves like a pyramid, with the heat apex and cool morning low floor occurring often as a single 5 minute period, rather than places like New York or Chicago where temperature values are much more curved rather than triangle like at the floor and peaks. If you actually spent a moment outside you would know this. Warming the lowest daily temperature that occurs five minutes a day by five degrees and then bitching about global warming in that area in comparison to New York or Chicago where the lowest low and highest high of the day occur for hours is always going to make it seem like things are way worse out here than they really are. If you were to measure lows an hour after sunrise globally and use that as the low, I'd imagine you'd have far less global warming in the deserts of the world than the ocean driven climates like the Northeast.

The giant purple area for a 60 period never seems to get any attention even though it's way more impressive than some ****ing +2 anomaly in a period of global warming. The danger of the heat in the Southwest to people is always during the day, and Phoenix is not particularly close to record heat in that sense, even though it's much warmer with the lows included. It's a 107F v. 105.5F median thing for 2022 v. the 1931-2021 median for the 6/9-8/7 period, and the lows, while annoying, are not actually dangerous to humans directly.

[beavis1729]

While I acknowledge the explanation about how the daily temperature curve differs in Phoenix vs. Chicago (which is interesting and makes sense), the high overnight temps in the heat island of Phoenix metro have a huge impact on those who are more vulnerable.  The body doesn't have a chance to recover when there is a prolonged stretch of very warm nights; it's not just the hot afternoons that are dangerous for humans.

In Chicago's 1995 heat wave, I believe studies showed that many of the 700+ deaths occurred because there was no relief at night.     

[donsutherland1]

On 8/9/2022 at 10:39 AM, beavis1729 said:

While I acknowledge the explanation about how the daily temperature curve differs in Phoenix vs. Chicago (which is interesting and makes sense), the high overnight temps in the heat island of Phoenix metro have a huge impact on those who are more vulnerable.  The body doesn't have a chance to recover when there is a prolonged stretch of very warm nights; it's not just the hot afternoons that are dangerous for humans.

In Chicago's 1995 heat wave, I believe studies showed that many of the 700+ deaths occurred because there was no relief at night.     

That’s correct regarding the absence of nighttime relief. The arrival of the monsoonal rains and cooler conditions has been life-saving in the Phoenix area. Prior to then, the year was off to an especially deadly start.

https://www.azfamily.com/2022/07/19/heat-deaths-maricopa-county-hit-half-year-record/?outputType=amp

It is a myth that Phoenix’s increasing heat and rapid rise in very warm nights (80° lows have increased from 46.5 days per year to 74.0 days per year from 1961-1990 to 1991-2020; 90° lows have increased from 1.1 days to 7.4 days during that same period) isn’t hazardous to human health/life. Mayor Gallego, among other City leaders, is correct in focusing on Phoenix’s warming climate.

[Voyager]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

That’s correct regarding the absence of nighttime relief. The arrival of the monsoonal rains and cooler conditions has been life-saving in the Phoenix area. Prior to then, the year was off to an especially deadly start.

https://www.azfamily.com/2022/07/19/heat-deaths-maricopa-county-hit-half-year-record/?outputType=amp

It is a myth that Phoenix’s increasing heat and rapid rise in very warm nights (80° lows have increased from 46.5 days per year to 74.0 days per year from 1961-1990 to 1991-2020; 90° lows have increased from 1.1 days to 7.4 days during that same period) isn’t hazardous to human health/life. Mayor Gallego, among other City leaders, is correct in focusing on Phoenix’s warming climate.

Urban heat island effects would have to be a big part of this. In 30 years Phoenix (the city itself) has grown by over one million people. The metro area at large over 2 million. That's a lot of extra homes, shopping centers concrete, asphalt, stone landscaping, etc. The urban area's geographical growth has been equally impressive as well. Sprawl has moved outward at least 10 to 20 miles farther to the north, south, and west during that same 30 years.

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Urban heat island effects would have to be a big part of this. In 30 years Phoenix (the city itself) has grown by over one million people. The metro area at large over 2 million. That's a lot of extra homes, shopping centers concrete, asphalt, stone landscaping, etc. The urban area's geographical growth has been equally impressive as well. Sprawl has moved outward at least 10 to 20 miles farther to the north, south, and west during that same 30 years.

It certainly is an important part of the story. I have some family just outside of Phoenix. The growth has been remarkable.

[raindancewx]

It's not a myth - people aren't outside at night. You're the type of person who spends all of your time on the internet aren't you? What makes you think there aren't others who do the same? The actual story of the Summer is the greening of the land as the drought recedes. You can pretend that's less important than your bizarre obsession with irrelevant levels of heat, but it's still complete horseshit, no matter how you spin it.

[donsutherland1]

21 hours ago, raindancewx said:

It's not a myth - people aren't outside at night. You're the type of person who spends all of your time on the internet aren't you? What makes you think there aren't others who do the same? The actual story of the Summer is the greening of the land as the drought recedes. You can pretend that's less important than your bizarre obsession with irrelevant levels of heat, but it's still complete horseshit, no matter how you spin it.

 

 

That is an ill-informed comment. A factual assessment follows.

First, although most people are indoors at night, there are populations that are not (select occupations such as construction and the homeless). Their health and lives matter, too (at least in an ethical framework that treats all lives as having value). Frivolous dismissals of an issue that is being discussed by scientists and policymakers, including Phoenix's Mayor Kate Gallego, as "bizarre" doesn't make that issue disappear. Flippant dismissals don't make the problem of anthropogenic climate change, which the IPCC described as "unequivocal, vanish.

Second, temperatures and temperature records are not mere abstract numbers that have no significance or meaning beyond the data. They have a real impact. The Southwest's and Phoenix's rising heat poses growing health and societal challenges. The Fourth National Climate Assessment explained:

Extreme heat episodes in much of the region disproportionately threaten the health and well-being of individuals and populations who are especially vulnerable... Vulnerability arises from numerous factors individually or in combination, including physical susceptibility (for example, young children and older adults), excessive exposure to heat (such as during heat waves), and socioeconomic factors that influence susceptibility and exposure (for example, hot and poorly ventilated homes or lack of access to public emergency cooling centers)... Communicable diseases, ground-level ozone air pollution, dust storms, and allergens can combine with temperature and precipitation extremes to generate multiple disease burdens (an indicator of the impact of a health problem).

Episodes of extreme heat can affect transportation by reducing the ability of commercial airlines to gain sufficient lift for takeoff at major regional airports.

Those are real, not imaginary, consequences. Discussing such matter is not even close to "bizarre." Dismissing or denying them is worse than bizarre.

Moreover, the Fifth Assessment that will be published in 2023 will sharpen the language related to heat-, drought-, and wildfire-related impacts, all of which are interrelated. Further, compound heat-drought events are projected to increase in the Southwest.

Source: Ridder et al., 2022.

More than half of Phoenix's warmest months on record have occurred since 2010, including July 2022. The 2010-2022 period accounts for a disproportionate share of exceptionally hot months, as Phoenix's records go back to August 1895.

Summers have been warming dramatically. 5 of the 10 hottest summers and 11 of the 20 hottest summers have occurred since 2010. Moreover, the 2000-2021 summer average temperature would rank as the 4th warmest summer during the entire 1895-1999 period. Half of the summers during 2000-2021 were hotter than the hottest summer during the 1895-1999 period.

Extremely hot nights (minimum temperatures of 90° or above) were once very uncommon. During 1895-1999, 22% of years saw such minimum temperatures. Every year during 2000-2021 has seen one or more such days. The last time one was not recorded was in 1991. The annual average was 0.5 days during 1895-1999. During 2000-2021, it rocketed to 9.7 days.

Diverting attention from the warming of Southwest climate in general, and Phoenix's climate in particular, does not discount the critical and growing importance of an issue that is well-supported by science and well-documented in the climate record. That there has been some welcome monsoon relief that eases the ongoing multi-year drought does not erase what is a growing and increasingly urgent issue confronting the Southwest. Moreover, the monsoon relief may dent but very likely won't erase the now 9" rainfall deficit that has accumulated from January 2015 through mid-August 2022 in the Phoenix area. Much more rain will be needed to end the drought. The coming La Niña winter won't necessarily bring the kind of winter-spring precipitation that is needed.

As for the insults in the comment, they merely illustrate the unserious nature of the comment. Fortunately, policymakers are not treating the issue as an "irrelevant" game. They have real responsibilities for the lives of the residents they serve and the economies that provide livelihoods for those people. They understand what's at stake. They are working to protect health, lives, and local economies. Already, Phoenix has developed a Climate Action Plan, which is hardly what one would expect were the issue "irrelevant."

In conclusion, the issue of Phoenix's and the Southwest's increasing heat is highly relevant. Internet or Social Media posts don't render it invalid. As long as it is a valid and important issue, I will highlight it when necessary or appropriate, as readers should have opportunity to be exposed to relevant developments, along with the facts.

 

[arizonasooner]

I am certainly not disputing the fact that the last several years have been very hot. But I am very happy that the last 30 days have been more like a "normal" summer from the distant past. At the Deer Valley airport near where I live the last 30 days have seen temperatures 2.51 degrees below the recent average with 2.46 inches of rain. Much better than any recent summer and very welcome after the warm start to July!

The rain has been pretty hit-and-miss though. We had a nice big thunderstorm at my house last night with about 0.51 inches of rain even though Deer Valley got nothing. But in general, all parts of the valley has had a decent monsoon this year.

[donsutherland1]

Phoenix is concluding its 6th hottest summer (tied with 1981, 2002, and 2011. Five of the last 10 summers have ranked in the top 10 in terms of heat.

[arizonasooner]

Yes the Phoenix warm season was on average quite hot. But, with the recent rainfall yesterday, it has also been pretty wet. The Maricopa County flood control district has rainfall in north Peoria near my house at about 5.12 inches since June 1. Plants are happy and things are really green around town this year compared to the past few years... 

[arizonasooner]

Well we went straight from summer to winter in Phoenix this year. The average temp for November was 60.2F at Sky Harbor, 4.9F below average. And only one day in the month had an above average daily temp. I haven't run the AC or the heat in about 45 days now...