mahantango#1 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 54 minutes ago, Voyager said: A chilly 57 this morning here in Anthracite country... 57 here also for the low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Some Am models continue the late trend yesterday in focusing the heaviest ran in the drought of N Central PA. Potential for some 2-4" totals in cells. CTP trying to catch on but not there yet. They are way way behind here then, as they say in my forecast top rain .25 edit they just raised the totals: showers likely, mainly between 11pm and 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 66. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Voyager said: A chilly 57 this morning here in Anthracite country... I got down to 61 in Marysville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 26 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: They are way way behind here then, as they say in my forecast top rain .25 edit they just raised the totals: showers likely, mainly between 11pm and 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 66. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible They seemed to have a bias against this event...not much coordination with Sterling. They even continue to down talk the cell potential while neighbors talk of increasing instability. Latest HRRR has clouds increasing and thickening this AM with rain commencing between 2 and 4 in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 31, 2022 Author Share Posted July 31, 2022 The 06z HRRR dumps 2.30" on me by Tuesday morning. Waiting to see what the nooners show, but some of the models seem to want to put me in the jackpot zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, Voyager said: The 06z HRRR dumps 2.30" on me by Tuesday morning. Waiting to see what the nooners show, but some of the models seem to want to put me in the jackpot zone. Nooners HRRR for this afternoon and night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 54 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: They seemed to have a bias against this event...not much coordination with Sterling. They even continue to down talk the cell potential while neighbors talk of increasing instability. Latest HRRR has clouds increasing and thickening this AM with rain commencing between 2 and 4 in the LSV. Good precip is still back near the OH/WV border. I think most of the afternoon will be dry for most of the LSV. I think the rain holds off until late afternoon or early evening for our Harrisburg & Lancaster crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Good precip is still back near the OH/WV border. I think most of the afternoon will be dry for most of the LSV. I think the rain holds off until late afternoon or early evening for our Harrisburg & Lancaster crew. Yea, Eastern LSV was 4pish on the HRRR. 1-2 PM Western LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, Eastern LSV was 4pish on the HRRR. 1-2 PM Western LSV. Here is the 6z Euro showing rain onset time between 5 & 8 pm for most of the LSV, maybe a little earlier for Rouzerville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Most of the good precip holds off until late evening according to the 6z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Here is total precip by tomorrow morning. This will be nice before the next round of heat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Already 81 here. If not for the rain this afternoon, today could have been the hottest day of the year here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Here’s the CTP take for my yard. Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Showers likely, mainly after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 68. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 36 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Already 81 here. If not for the rain this afternoon, today could have been the hottest day of the year here. You’re warmer than me - I’m at 77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 17 minutes ago, canderson said: You’re warmer than me - I’m at 77. Strong SW flow at 850 and a bit below is pumping Southern Air in. Plus a S/W forming to my SW. 83 now. Even warmer than CXY right now. It is quickly clouding up though so no records here today. One observer has 87 a bit north of me though I wonder if that is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 The humidity is already coming back. My dew point is up to 64. The one day break yesterday was nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 First few drops here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 A few miles west of rou'ville but it is pouring. Soaker headed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The humidity is already coming back. My dew point is up to 64. The one day break yesterday was nice. No doubt great day yesterday! Now back to heat and humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, paweather said: No doubt great day yesterday! Now back to heat and humidity. The AN heat looks relatively short lived. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 You’re warmer than me - I’m at 77. Tonight might be that over proformer that tops off the best 7 day precipitation total for you all summer to date. Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 First drops have arrived at Pinchot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Just now, Jns2183 said: Tonight might be that over proformer that tops off the best 7 day precipitation total for you all summer to date . Pro We are already between .1 and .2 with Mod to heavy rain. Raining through much of the Northern LSV now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: First drops have arrived at Pinchot. Sincerely sorry you lost a chunk of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Also as far as average time between events I believe this area is over due for an Isabelle type tropical system that brings with it a scary night of winds. September and October will be interesting . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Also as far as average time between events I believe this area is over due for an Isabelle type tropical system that brings with it a scary night of winds. September and October will be interesting . Pro I was just reviewing some of the tropical models as it is QUIET. I remember I said that last year, albeit it a week or two earlier, and things livened up but it is now August and there is nothing to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Tonight might be that over proformer that tops off the best 7 day precipitation total for you all summer to date . Pro Yea looks like a solid soaking rain. My grass is much greener today than it has been for a month and half thanks to the three straight days that had rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 52 minutes ago, canderson said: The AN heat looks relatively short lived. Yea, the super heat wave that appeared headed this was mis-forecast by the GFS as of today's depictions. The end of the GFS is more late September than early August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 So we were talking about rain start times...even the early models, like the HRRR, were too late with reality seeing rain entering the Lehigh Valley right now. The runs that had it starting this evening were really late. The latest HRRR has the rain ending 10-11PM in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 .4" in the till and 64 degrees at 4PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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