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Central PA Summer 2022


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46 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

This is definitely one of the better summertime significant severe/tornadic type setups I’ve seen recently around these parts, at least “on paper”. Lots of heat, high dewpoints (at or above 70), large CAPE, high LI, decent shear, BRN values supportive of discrete supercells, etc. The combination of these has all the composite indices (supercell, hail size, significant tornado parameters) very high today on the mesoanalysis.

The radar split is definitely notable right now, as the hole figures to translate into the portion of PA that has some of the best severe indices. With that said, the portion of PA between here and Harrisburg really needs to be watched for discrete cell action if it does fire up as the EHI values being generated there honestly concern me a bit. A 0-1km EHI of 1 is  enough for possible tornadoes. 4+ is significant. And the 0-3km values are stupid high. This ribbon does extend up into northern PA where current action (and the Elk County tornado warned cell) are moving towards. I’d also look for the Sus Valley to become more favorable with the late clearing this afternoon. 

0-1km EHI

 

0-3km EHI

 

Significant tornado parameter

 

$64 question. Does any of it have a chance to make it to the eastern portion of State College's CWA or am I shit out of luck over here. The overcast just doesn't want to give up it's grip here.

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45 minutes ago, Voyager said:

$64 question. Does any of it have a chance to make it to the eastern portion of State College's CWA or am I shit out of luck over here. The overcast just doesn't want to give up it's grip here.

My guess is that it'll be like this morning. Four flashes, two booms, and about a quarter inch of rain...if I'm lucky. This year is REALLY making me HATE living on the eastern side of the state. Back door fronts, CAD, poor instability due to persistent cloud cover, and whatever else....

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11 minutes ago, canderson said:

I’m so damn tired of watering. And tonight mosquitos are so bad I got chewed up. 
 

Sidenote: I don’t think I recall mosquitos this prevalent. Which is weird cause it’s been so very dry. 

Not a cold winter and pretty sure we had a wet spring...bugs gonna be BAD. And they have been bad

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1 hour ago, Voyager said:

$64 question. Does any of it have a chance to make it to the eastern portion of State College's CWA or am I shit out of luck over here. The overcast just doesn't want to give up it's grip here.

I would imagine you’ll get a piece of the stuff that’s just east of State College, but likely what you said with maybe some heavier rain and thunder/lightning. Mixed layer CAPE is trying to build into eastern PA but there’s also a good amount of  CIN (convective inhibition) from the lingering cloud cover/much lower surface temps on that end of the state (not to mention current convection is shooting a lot of high clouds eastward. 

 Really surprised at the lack of initiation of convection in south central PA though (west of the Sus where the sun really broke out). I thought that to be a ticking time bomb this afternoon given parameters and approaching front. SPC did trim but maintain the tornado watch, likely a hat tip to said parameters which are still good, but I’m not as concerned as I was this afternoon. There was really a split in convection between the north central PA stuff and the more robust stuff sagging south just west of Pittsburgh.

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Thanks MAG!

Looking at current radar, the storms and precipitation are practically evaporating east and north of Sunbury. Unless some new activity forms, it looks like what's left of that line goes southwest of me.

Maybe I'll see some "heat lightning"... :lol:

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Tornado Warning

Tornado Warning
PAC067-099-170115-
/O.NEW.KCTP.TO.W.0003.220617T0021Z-220617T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service State College PA
821 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Juniata County in central Pennsylvania...
  Central Perry County in south central Pennsylvania...

* Until 915 PM EDT.

* At 821 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Mexico, moving southeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and hail up to two inches in diameter.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  New Bloomfield and Newport around 840 PM EDT.
  Shermansdale and Duncannon around 900 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Thompsontown, Port Royal, Landisburg and Mifflintown.

 

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