Central PA Summer 2022

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'll match you with a low of 59, but you solidly win yesterday's rainfall derby as I recorded .16"

Damn right I did, but still pales in comparison to the 1-2 inches received in some localized areas just north of Mount Joy Borough. 

46 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

800' but this is my 4th summer here and we usually are within a degree or two of MDT's numbers for that year (average).  Last August at this point we were banging an average temp HIGHER than MDT's numbers due to less rain/clouds and had close to 30 days of 90 or above just like MDT.   The HIA has been extreme this year.   We are 4 degrees lower on average than the last 3 Augusts here at this point so this has been a one time event.   I remember doing daily posts last summer how we were pushing 90 by lunch over and over.   Elevation is definitely playing a part as HGR is not as extreme to the cool as I am but something has been up this summer in the LSV HIA area.   Like I said before, should MDT be   warmer than Dulles? The heat in the urban areas has really stood out this summer. 

 

Last year Dulles and MDT were  .1 different so basically the same.  This year Dulles is 1.6 degrees cooler than MDT!  Hard to think it is just clouds and rain being the difference over almost 3 months. 

Bizarre indeed.  I mean, we all know MDT is a known hot-spot but still.....

[Mount Joy Snowman]

25 minutes ago, canderson said:

58 overnight. Predicting we hit 90 tomorrow in the HBG and History Maytown region. 

Yep, and I have to go to a wedding at a place that doesn't have AC.  Lovely. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Damn right I did, but still pales in comparison to the 1-2 inches received in some localized areas just north of Mount Joy Borough. 

Bizarre indeed.  I mean, we all know MDT is a known hot-spot but still.....

My son's car was damaged by hail yesterday outside of Mount Joy - he told me last night the ground was white near Rheems. 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Damn right I did, but still pales in comparison to the 1-2 inches received in some localized areas just north of Mount Joy Borough. 

Bizarre indeed.  I mean, we all know MDT is a known hot-spot but still.....

Your Top Ten August comment got me thinking as I was sitting here thinking this has been one of the coolest Augusts ever realizing some of that was elevation...but Dulles being 1.6 below MDT sort of clinched it a bit.  The other thing that bothers me is how brazen everyone is stating that their high temps will beat model predictions.  It has become common place.   The models are partially based off past events which means...most days are hotter now than similar conditions would have made them in the past. 

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

2 fascinating posts - for one area it's a top 10 month for heat, while the other is one of the coolest Augusts ever.

Crazy! 

I am glad I have cashtown's equipment to back me up. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My son's car was damaged by hail yesterday outside of Mount Joy - he told me last night the ground was white near Rheems. 

Wow sorry to hear that.  Must have been a pretty large hail core, as my buddy on the east end of Mt. Joy sent me a video of intense hail out his way as well. 

[Bubbler86]

Prior to 1990 MDT had a Mean average of 77 or higher, for August, just 4 times in history (103 years).    Since then it has achieved that 8 times counting this year. 8 times in 33 years.   My mean of 71 this year would have been a little below average but not near a record prior to 1990.  Since 1990 the lowest mean at MDT has been 71.6 which is the only time it was below 72. 

(Eye scanning numbers so may be off by one but the point is still made)

 

[Itstrainingtime]

24 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Your Top Ten August comment got me thinking as I was sitting here thinking this has been one of the coolest Augusts ever realizing some of that was elevation...but Dulles being 1.6 below MDT sort of clinched it a bit.  The other thing that bothers me is how brazen everyone is stating that their high temps will beat model predictions.  It has become common place.   The models are partially based off past events which means...most days are hotter now than similar conditions would have made them in the past. 

I'm not trying to act brazen - but for the past few years my high has consistently topped projections on the majority of sunny summer days. 

I didn't mean to come across like I'm smarter than you, anyone else, or any model or forecaster. 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm not trying to act brazen - but for the past few years my high has consistently topped projections on the majority of sunny summer days. 

I didn't mean to come across like I'm smarter than you, anyone else, or any model or forecaster. 

Oh,  my brazen comment was not directed at anything related to me.   I meant people are brazen vs. what the GFS, Nam, etc. said.  The HRRR has been running a bit closer to reality but almost everything has been too low including the hottie Euro (once in range, EC is often too high out past 72 hrs) .  At my place the Nam and GFS high predicts have been almost spot on . Low predicts a bit too warm at night.   The NWS forecasts highs have been too low way more often than not. 

 

[Bubbler86]

Paweather early nooners....66 and Sunny. 

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Paweather early nooners....66 and Sunny. 

early nooners here 70 and sunny. 

[Bubbler86]

[sauss06]

14 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Total rain failure in Marysville today!

Super frustrating….especially with seeing heavy rain just a few miles away in Summerdale.

My official Marysville total today is 0.00000

Thats fricking amazing, wow. we had .9 just over the ridge from you. 

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Paweather early nooners....66 and Sunny. 

 

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

early nooners here 70 and sunny. 

Wow...no nooner for me today, but I'm sunny and 74. 

[Bubbler86]

HRRR and 3K are both getting moderately more excited about LSV afternoon scattered convection tomorrow.   GFS has a wet Saturday AM for the LSV as well. 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, Superstorm said:

Lots of dry saharan air in the atlantic.  Im not expecting any activity until October.

Just read an article sourcing the National Hurricane Center, and they're expecting a big uptick in the Atlantic in as few as 7 days from now. Sounds like they think September will be very active. 

[Superstorm]

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

800' but this is my 4th summer here and we usually are within a degree or two of MDT's numbers for that year (average).  Last August at this point we were banging an average temp HIGHER than MDT's numbers due to less rain/clouds and had close to 30 days of 90 or above just like MDT.   The HIA has been extreme this year.   We are 4 degrees lower on average than the last 3 Augusts here at this point so this has been a one time event.   I remember doing daily posts last summer how we were pushing 90 by lunch over and over.   Elevation is definitely playing a part as HGR is not as extreme to the cool as I am but something has been up this summer in the LSV HIA area.   Like I said before, should MDT be   warmer than Dulles? The heat in the urban areas has really stood out this summer. 

 

Last year Dulles and MDT were  .1 different so basically the same.  This year Dulles is 1.6 degrees cooler than MDT!  Hard to think it is just clouds and rain being the difference over almost 3 months. 

This year has been odd.  Places with elevations have been much cooler.  That guy in Chester County in the Philly thread is over 800 feet in elevation also, and he has only had one 90F day all summer.  He is also slightly cooler than normal.

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

This year has been odd.  Places with elevations have been much cooler.  That guy in Chester County in the Philly thread is over 800 feet in elevation also, and he has only had one 90F day all summer.  He is also slightly cooler than normal.

I will definitely concede that elevation is part of it but the models (especially the Nam) being off almost every day makes me think concrete and car exhaust are playing a role as well.     Another point, it has simply not been humid overall this year.  There have been days of course but one would think our temps may spike a bit more during the say with drier air but has not really been the case. 

[Bubbler86]

True nooners.  72 and sunny. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

True nooners.  72 and sunny. 

78 and sunny here. 

[paweather]

Nooners 74 and sunny. 

[mahantango#1]

82 @12:10

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

This year has been odd.  Places with elevations have been much cooler.  That guy in Chester County in the Philly thread is over 800 feet in elevation also, and he has only had one 90F day all summer.  He is also slightly cooler than normal.

 

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I will definitely concede that elevation is part of it but the models (especially the Nam) being off almost every day makes me think concrete and car exhaust are playing a role as well.     Another point, it has simply not been humid overall this year.  There have been days of course but one would think our temps may spike a bit more during the say with drier air but has not really been the case. 

I have to do a count again, but my house in Tamaqua sits at 825 ft and I've had no problem cracking 90 this summer. What may have helped my temps is that, even at over 800 ft, I'm in the bottom of a valley, so downsloping may have played a part in it as locations to my north, east, and west are 500+ feet higher than where my house is located.

[canderson]

86 here now. 3 over forecast, I bet the house tomorrow hits 91. 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

86 here now. 3 over forecast, I bet the house tomorrow hits 91. 

We are sitting at 78.  MDT is surprisingly only 82. 

[sauss06]

i have 84. I'm kinda feel weird not hitting 90 the past couple days, looking forward to Friday

[Bubbler86]

Just now, sauss06 said:

i have 84. I'm kinda feel weird not hitting 90 the past couple days, looking forward to Friday

I feel like in an average summer MDT should hit 90 12-15 times in August.  4-5 degrees AN.  Counter acts the 70's and low 80's days. 

[sauss06]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I feel like in an average summer MDT should hit 90 12-15 times in August.  4-5 degrees AN.  Counter acts the 70's and low 80's days. 

a customer said yesterday, "been a mild summer"  We are FAR from mild.  i lost count, but we're over 20 days of 90s or above. 

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

 

I have to do a count again, but my house in Tamaqua sits at 825 ft and I've had no problem cracking 90 this summer. What may have helped my temps is that, even at over 800 ft, I'm in the bottom of a valley, so downsloping may have played a part in it as locations to my north, east, and west are 500+ feet higher than where my house is located.

Just did my count. So far 19 days were at or above 90 degrees this year in Tamaqua.

[Bubbler86]

11 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

a customer said yesterday, "been a mild summer"  We are FAR from mild.  i lost count, but we're over 20 days of 90s or above. 

But that 90's count is not that abnormal, right?   When the normal is 85-87 for most of the Summer...June 23-Aug 19 or about 2/3 of the summer...what does getting 3-5 degrees AN mean other than a normal day?  Get up to 98 or stay in the mid 70's and we have something really abnormal on the up or down side IMO.