Voyager Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: I have a vested (obviously) interest in the tropics right now, but for those of you who look at the long range modeling for our area, the GFS is banging an epic rain storm over the central 1/3rd of the state beginning at about the 10 day mark. Tropical system comes onshore down south and rides right up the spine of the Apps thereafter. Would be a prolific rain maker in PA for some. Without looking at maps, that sounds Lee-like. We got 3-4 inches of rain, while Pine Grove and points west got double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Just now, Voyager said: Without looking at maps, that sounds Lee-like. We got 3-4 inches of rain, while Pine Grove and points west got double digits. Lee got the Susky down here to 22'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 @Cashtown_Coop, the HRRR tells us to hold out hope after dark as the low pivots but radar is not looking great for us right now. Central and Eastern LSV spanking us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 How can there be two Waynesboro's? Pinkerton road taking it on the chin. Golf cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: @Cashtown_Coop, the HRRR tells us to hold out hope after dark as the low pivots but radar is not looking great for us right now. Central and Eastern LSV spanking us. I can wait 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Dumb squirrel knocked over my gauge so I have no idea what I just got. Guessing .2" or .3" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Just now, canderson said: Dumb squirrel knocked over my gauge so I have no idea what I just got. Guessing .2" or .3" Cocosquirrel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Cocosquirrel Rats with tails. They need to all die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Just now, canderson said: Rats with tails. They need to all die. As opposed to tailless rats? LOL. That made me laugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: As opposed to tailless rats? LOL. That made me laugh! I missed "furry" lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 28 minutes ago, Voyager said: Without looking at maps, that sounds Lee-like. We got 3-4 inches of rain, while Pine Grove and points west got double digits. I got fringed with 15.4"... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I got fringed with 15.4"... And also learned when not to take date night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: How can there be two Waynesboro's? Pinkerton road taking it on the chin. Golf cancelled. There is a Maytown in York County right down 177 from Pinchot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: There is a Maytown in York County right down 177 from Pinchot. They are surely posers who have no idea what historic really means. And no airport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: They are surely posers who have no idea what historic really means. And no airport. Irrelevant without an airport. I need to be able to fly HOME, and not to some remote airstrip in another county or state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 IF (big if) the radar is right, I would think there will be some over 1" totals near TMI/York Haven/Manchester/Mount Wolf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Not much here maybe .1 it was all to the west of me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 62 degrees with light rain, but only .11" in the bucket at home. I guess the big story is it's 62 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 62 degrees with light rain, but only .11" in the bucket at home. I guess the big story is it's 62 degrees. Estimated has 1/2" just to your west. Close. Some 2" totals near Middletown. SWS out for York County and Northern Adams now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Estimated has 1/2" just to your west. Close. Some 2" totals near Middletown. SWS out for York County and Northern Adams now. Air traffic control diverted the storm east and west of the airport so that the matinee jumpers could get their practice in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Highest estimated total I saw was 3" over Hill Island near MDT. Spotters I know have decent amounts but no major hits for them. 2" Est NW of Manchester York County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 33 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Highest estimated total I saw was 3" over Hill Island near MDT. Spotters I know have decent amounts but no major hits for them. 2" Est NW of Manchester York County. MDT reported .03”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 Sorry for the continued Arizona intrusion, but this kind of event is fairly rare for the low desert Phoenix metro area, and the fact that I'm here to see it is pretty cool... A snippet from the NWS PHX afternoon discussion. Heading into Friday, the upper level low will remain just to the south of the forecast area, continuing to advect a very moist airmass into the area. During the day Friday, PWAT values for south- central Arizona will rise to 2-2.25" with lower values west of the Colorado River. These are exceptionally high values for any time of the year, and are near the 99th percentile of the NAEFS climatology. Meanwhile, a trough will develop northwest of the forecast area introducing increased wind shear and diffluence aloft, especially by Saturday morning due to a well positioned jet streak. With strongly forced ascent of a near record breaking moist airmass, widespread moderate to heavy rain is expected to develop during the afternoon Friday and continue at times through Saturday, and possibly into Sunday morning. In terms of timing, the most likely period for heavy rain will be Friday afternoon into Saturday morning for south-central Arizona. A secondary push of heavy rain may develop Saturday evening into Sunday morning for Gila County and potentially Maricopa County as well. WPC QPF totals are impressive, with 0.75"-3" expected for Maricopa, northwest Pinal, and Gila Counties. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, Voyager said: Sorry for the continued Arizona intrusion, but this kind of event is fairly rare for the low desert Phoenix metro area, and the fact that I'm here to see it is pretty cool... A snippet from the NWS PHX afternoon discussion. Heading into Friday, the upper level low will remain just to the south of the forecast area, continuing to advect a very moist airmass into the area. During the day Friday, PWAT values for south- central Arizona will rise to 2-2.25" with lower values west of the Colorado River. These are exceptionally high values for any time of the year, and are near the 99th percentile of the NAEFS climatology. Meanwhile, a trough will develop northwest of the forecast area introducing increased wind shear and diffluence aloft, especially by Saturday morning due to a well positioned jet streak. With strongly forced ascent of a near record breaking moist airmass, widespread moderate to heavy rain is expected to develop during the afternoon Friday and continue at times through Saturday, and possibly into Sunday morning. In terms of timing, the most likely period for heavy rain will be Friday afternoon into Saturday morning for south-central Arizona. A secondary push of heavy rain may develop Saturday evening into Sunday morning for Gila County and potentially Maricopa County as well. WPC QPF totals are impressive, with 0.75"-3" expected for Maricopa, northwest Pinal, and Gila Counties. Wouldn’t this lead to catastrophic flooding outside the city? I know areas of AZ and NM if they get more than. .5” flooding can be very bad due to the canyons and soil matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 25 minutes ago, canderson said: MDT reported .03”. I am guessing that is wrong but not sure the 3" is right either. I have on the ground spotter reports all around MDT in the .5-1" range. Have a Weather underground reporter right outside the airport reporting 1.49". The reports on weather underground can be suspect but usually not to the high side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 One of my spotters in Southern Susq. Twp is at .9" so almost an inch there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 51 minutes ago, Voyager said: Sorry for the continued Arizona intrusion, but this kind of event is fairly rare for the low desert Phoenix metro area, and the fact that I'm here to see it is pretty cool... A snippet from the NWS PHX afternoon discussion. Heading into Friday, the upper level low will remain just to the south of the forecast area, continuing to advect a very moist airmass into the area. During the day Friday, PWAT values for south- central Arizona will rise to 2-2.25" with lower values west of the Colorado River. These are exceptionally high values for any time of the year, and are near the 99th percentile of the NAEFS climatology. Meanwhile, a trough will develop northwest of the forecast area introducing increased wind shear and diffluence aloft, especially by Saturday morning due to a well positioned jet streak. With strongly forced ascent of a near record breaking moist airmass, widespread moderate to heavy rain is expected to develop during the afternoon Friday and continue at times through Saturday, and possibly into Sunday morning. In terms of timing, the most likely period for heavy rain will be Friday afternoon into Saturday morning for south-central Arizona. A secondary push of heavy rain may develop Saturday evening into Sunday morning for Gila County and potentially Maricopa County as well. WPC QPF totals are impressive, with 0.75"-3" expected for Maricopa, northwest Pinal, and Gila Counties. It's pretty interesting seeing that much rain fall there. I went to Phoenix when I was 14 once and we went there when it was during monsoon season so it rained a few days there. I still thought the heat there was overrated compared to a hot and humid day in central PA though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: I am guessing that is wrong but not sure the 3" is right either. I have on the ground spotter reports all around MDT in the .5-1" range. Have a Weather underground reporter right outside the airport reporting 1.49". The reports on weather underground can be suspect but usually not to the high side. CXY reports 0” as does my boss in New Cumberland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 18, 2022 Author Share Posted August 18, 2022 1 hour ago, canderson said: Wouldn’t this lead to catastrophic flooding outside the city? I know areas of AZ and NM if they get more than. .5” flooding can be very bad due to the canyons and soil matter. I don't know. I guess it depends on if those numbers are spread out over many hours, or if it falls in a couple of major bursts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 Total rain failure in Marysville today! Super frustrating….especially with seeing heavy rain just a few miles away in Summerdale. My official Marysville total today is 0.00000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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