Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: South and South East of Lancaster had two rain+ lines move through that both dumped .5 to 1" each per estimated. Looking at the radar review (forgetting estimated and just looking at the live radar) the .3 to .5" would have to be too low imo but maybe some massive virga? Estimated had you between .15 and .3 depending on side of town for Mt Joy. Right. What I'm saying is I checked all the WU stations between Strasburg and Lancaster and all of them were around that .3" mark. Remarkably consistent. Baring some on the ground verification, it seems there may have been a glitch in the radar and associated estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Right. What I'm saying is I checked all the WU stations between Strasburg and Lancaster and all of them were around that .3" mark. Remarkably consistent. Baring some on the ground verification, it seems there may have been a glitch in the radar and associated estimates. The glitch in the radar really surprises me. Not so much on the estimated. But makes sense if they both were not reporting correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: The glitch in the radar really surprises me. Not so much on the estimated. But makes sense if they both were not reporting correctly. It appears there were definitely some issues with radar with this event because I clicked my exact location on the radar estimate map and it has me at .7", whereas I got less than .2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: It appears there were definitely some issues with radar with this event because I clicked my exact location on the radar estimate map and it has me at .7", whereas I got less than .2". Thanks for verification. That unsoakens my soaker comment a bit as I was basing it on the live radar I viewed this AM which showed high dBZ's through much of the LSV South of the Harrisburg general area. Less the farther east one went. I have my spotters reporting on the ground .2-.3 inches in Eastern Cumberland county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: It appears there were definitely some issues with radar with this event because I clicked my exact location on the radar estimate map and it has me at .7", whereas I got less than .2". PS on the Radar estimate I am using, over the last 12 hours, the highest around Mt Joy is .29. Goes up to closer to 1/2" near Pinkerton Road to the south of Mt Joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: PS on the Radar estimate I am using, over the last 12 hours, the highest around Mt Joy is .29. Goes up to closer to 1/2" near Pinkerton Road to the south of Mt Joy. Sterling est is def running high. Shows 2”+ for Fairfield band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Sterling est is def running high. Shows 2”+ for Fairfield band. I reviewed two radar sources (live not estimated totals) and those areas of south of Lancaster City would have had to be over 1" if the returns were right/no virga issues. So definitely looks like something is up. This was the second band setting up to roll through at 7:15AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 At 12 noon my temp is a pleasantly cool 64.4 degrees. Overnight and this morning I received a very beneficial 0.74" of rain. Hoping for more later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: PS on the Radar estimate I am using, over the last 12 hours, the highest around Mt Joy is .29. Goes up to closer to 1/2" near Pinkerton Road to the south of Mt Joy. I don't live in Mount Joy, just have a Mount Joy address. I am actually south of Pinkerton Road, well into the more yellow hues on that map. I have that site you like saved as well. It's usually fairly accurate but every now and then can be quite overdone. I think the Sterling radar got a bit wonky with that band it displayed through Lancaster. It never rained that hard here, relative to what it was showing. Got to love the things we waste time on around here haha, but I love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: At 12 noon my temp is a pleasantly cool 64.4 degrees. Overnight and this morning I received a very beneficial 0.74" of rain. Hoping for more later. You guys had a nice band over you a good bit of the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: PS on the Radar estimate I am using, over the last 12 hours, the highest around Mt Joy is .29. Goes up to closer to 1/2" near Pinkerton Road to the south of Mt Joy. Pinkerton Road is adjacent to the golf course...never trust any reports from golf courses... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I don't live in Mount Joy, just have a Mount Joy address. I am actually south of Pinkerton Road, well into the more yellow hues on that map. I have that site you like saved as well. It's usually fairly accurate but every now and then can be quite overdone. I think the Sterling radar got a bit wonky with that band it displayed through Lancaster. It never rained that hard here, relative to what it was showing. Got to love the things we waste time on around here haha, but I love it! It is science so we need to get it right. LOL. It's interesting because in my neck of the woods, we did not have a radar issue. I withdraw my soaker comment for areas East of the river (or even near the river) then. I always take this estimated site with a bit of a grain of salt but not used to having to question actual radar returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Pinkerton Road is adjacent to the golf course...never trust any reports from golf courses... Comn man 1.05” officially 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Comn man He does not own a winter coat or an umbrella so go easy on him. :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Comn man 1.05” officially Thank you for taking the bait. BTW - I have a ton of respect for you Joe...I hope you know that I was 100% kidding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: He does not own a winter coat or an umbrella so go easy on him. :-) I did hit 80 degrees before the rain hit. microclimate here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Thank you for taking the bait. BTW - I have a ton of respect for you Joe...I hope you know that I was 100% kidding. I’m just playing as well. Need to keep forum fun. You contribute a lot to that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: He does not own a winter coat or an umbrella so go easy on him. :-) I had a Harrisburg Senators giveaway golf-sized umbrella that I got at a game in 2012. It sat in my closet unused until I had a Brainiac moment on the day that Sandy arrived - I assessed the rains that morning and thought it might be a good idea to take my Sens umbrella to the office that morning. Being an umbrella novice, I miscalculated what Tropical Storm force winds would do to my giveaway treasure. It had about 3 seconds of service before the winds made it pieces of lawn decoration down the street from me. That was my experience with umbrella usage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It is science so we need to get it right. LOL. It's interesting because in my neck of the woods, we did not have a radar issue. I withdraw my soaker comment for areas East of the river (or even near the river) then. I always take this estimated site with a bit of a grain of salt but not used to having to question actual radar returns. Yeah I think it was just Sterling radar, State College radar estimates seem to be much more in line with reality on this particular event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 Nooners 74 cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 20 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I’m just playing as well. Need to keep forum fun. You contribute a lot to that. So is this reading your home monitor? I was not sure which was which but it was where I was quoting the almost 1.2" before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 71 at 12:45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 Late nooners, cloudy and 67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 Clouds are breaking up here - temp is currently 74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 31 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: So is this reading your home monitor? I was not sure which was which but it was where I was quoting the almost 1.2" before. Yeah that’s mine. Reads high sometimes but not always. I’m not sure on calibration of vp2. The newer models switched to a spoon mechanism instead of the classic sea saw and I don’t like it. I had my Rainwise station dialed in but this Davis is not nearly as accurate. At least yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 MDT got .05” rain, I beat them by .01” woooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 Rain picking up again a bit to the west of the LSV. Hoping tomorrow afternoon the wet short term pattern kicks in a bit better for the Harrisburg area crew with some storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Rain picking up again a bit to the west of the LSV. Hoping tomorrow afternoon the wet short term pattern kicks in a bit better for the Harrisburg area crew with some. It's Bubbler vs MU! (MU is calling for Mostly Sunny here tomorrow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It's Bubbler vs MU! (MU is calling for Mostly Sunny here tomorrow) Would you not need the mostly sunny to bubble up the storms? LOL. NWS has you partly sunny with 30% chance of showers. Not sure which team that is. I forgot to add storms to the end of my original post. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday appears to be another mostly cloudy and seasonably cool day for many as upper level troughing and weak easterly flow remain over the area. Overall consensus is for a slight westward and even northward shift in the max shower activity on Tuesday, but given the cool air aloft and easterly flow, a shower is possible just about anywhere on Tuesday, along with a rumble of thunder in spots. NBM/WPC QPF along with multi-model ensemble means favor the NW Alleghenies with max POPs on Tue with a weaker signal for Wed as drier air continues to funnel sw into the region as the closed upper low is nudged off to the east. Temperatures are forecast to trend warmer through midweek with maxT +2-8F higher vs. Monday but still below climo in most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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