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Central PA Summer 2022

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Mount Joy Snowman

Mount Joy Snowman

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

South and South East of Lancaster had two rain+ lines move through that both dumped  .5 to 1" each per estimated.   Looking at the radar review (forgetting estimated and just looking at the live radar) the .3 to .5" would have to be too low imo but maybe some massive virga?   Estimated had you between .15 and .3 depending on side of town for Mt Joy. 

image.png.d99870e56f7b6b38ca7b935c89b7d240.png

 

 

Right.  What I'm saying is I checked all the WU stations between Strasburg and Lancaster and all of them were around that .3" mark.  Remarkably consistent.  Baring some on the ground verification, it seems there may have been a glitch in the radar and associated estimates.  

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Right.  What I'm saying is I checked all the WU stations between Strasburg and Lancaster and all of them were around that .3" mark.  Remarkably consistent.  Baring some on the ground verification, it seems there may have been a glitch in the radar and associated estimates.  

The glitch in the radar really surprises me.    Not so much on the estimated.   But makes sense if they both were not reporting correctly.    

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Mount Joy Snowman

Mount Joy Snowman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

The glitch in the radar really surprises me.    Not so much on the estimated.   But makes sense if they both were not reporting correctly.  

It appears there were definitely some issues with radar with this event because I clicked my exact location on the radar estimate map and it has me at .7", whereas I got less than .2".

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

It appears there were definitely some issues with radar with this event because I clicked my exact location on the radar estimate map and it has me at .7", whereas I got less than .2".

Thanks for verification. That unsoakens my soaker comment a bit as I was basing it on the live radar I viewed this AM which showed high dBZ's through much of the LSV South of the Harrisburg general area.  Less the farther east one went.  I have my spotters reporting on the ground .2-.3 inches in Eastern Cumberland county. 

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

It appears there were definitely some issues with radar with this event because I clicked my exact location on the radar estimate map and it has me at .7", whereas I got less than .2".

PS on the Radar estimate I am using, over the last 12 hours, the highest around Mt Joy is .29.  Goes up to closer to 1/2" near Pinkerton Road to the south of Mt Joy. 

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Sterling est is def running high.  Shows 2”+ for Fairfield band.   

I reviewed two radar sources (live not estimated totals) and those areas of south of Lancaster City  would have had to be over 1" if the returns were right/no virga issues.  So definitely looks like something is up.   This was the second band setting up to roll through at 7:15AM.  image.thumb.png.97c6d0e40057bc266c7675149642d931.png

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Mount Joy Snowman

Mount Joy Snowman

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

PS on the Radar estimate I am using, over the last 12 hours, the highest around Mt Joy is .29.  Goes up to closer to 1/2" near Pinkerton Road to the south of Mt Joy. 

I don't live in Mount Joy, just have a Mount Joy address.  I am actually south of Pinkerton Road, well into the more yellow hues on that map.  I have that site you like saved as well.  It's usually fairly accurate but every now and then can be quite overdone.  I think the Sterling radar got a bit wonky with that band it displayed through Lancaster.  It never rained that hard here, relative to what it was showing.  Got to love the things we waste time on around here haha, but I love it! 

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I don't live in Mount Joy, just have a Mount Joy address.  I am actually south of Pinkerton Road, well into the more yellow hues on that map.  I have that site you like saved as well.  It's usually fairly accurate but every now and then can be quite overdone.  I think the Sterling radar got a bit wonky with that band it displayed through Lancaster.  It never rained that hard here, relative to what it was showing.  Got to love the things we waste time on around here haha, but I love it! 

It is science so we need to get it right.  LOL.  It's interesting because in my neck of the woods, we did not have a radar issue.  I withdraw my soaker comment for areas East of the river (or even near the river) then.   I always take this estimated site with a bit of a grain of salt but not used to having to question actual radar returns. 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

He does not own a winter coat or an umbrella so go easy on him.  :-) 

I had a Harrisburg Senators giveaway golf-sized umbrella that I got at a game in 2012. It sat in my closet unused until I had a Brainiac moment on the day that Sandy arrived - I assessed the rains that morning and thought it might be a good idea to take my Sens umbrella to the office that morning.

Being an umbrella novice, I miscalculated what Tropical Storm force winds would do to my giveaway treasure. It had about 3 seconds of service before the winds made it pieces of lawn decoration down the street from me. 

That was my experience with umbrella usage.  

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Mount Joy Snowman

Mount Joy Snowman

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It is science so we need to get it right.  LOL.  It's interesting because in my neck of the woods, we did not have a radar issue.  I withdraw my soaker comment for areas East of the river (or even near the river) then.   I always take this estimated site with a bit of a grain of salt but not used to having to question actual radar returns. 

Yeah I think it was just Sterling radar, State College radar estimates seem to be much more in line with reality on this particular event.

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Cashtown_Coop

Cashtown_Coop

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

So is this reading your home monitor?   I was not sure which was which but it was where I was quoting the almost 1.2" before. 

image.png.6e8a3d111432a0669c3dbf686bacb3e3.png

 

Yeah that’s mine. Reads high sometimes but not always.  I’m not sure on calibration of vp2.  The newer models switched to a spoon mechanism instead of the classic sea saw and I don’t like it.   I had my Rainwise station dialed in but this Davis is not nearly as accurate. At least yet.    

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It's Bubbler vs MU! (MU is calling for Mostly Sunny here tomorrow) 

Would you not need the mostly sunny to bubble up the storms?    LOL.  NWS has you partly sunny with 30% chance of showers.  Not sure which team that is.   I forgot to add storms to the end of my original post.  Fixed. 

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted 
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday appears to be another mostly cloudy and seasonably cool
day for many as upper level troughing and weak easterly flow
remain over the area. Overall consensus is for a slight westward
and even northward shift in the max shower activity on Tuesday,
but given the cool air aloft and easterly flow, a shower is
possible just about anywhere on Tuesday, along with a rumble of
thunder in spots. NBM/WPC QPF along with multi-model ensemble
means favor the NW Alleghenies with max POPs on Tue with a
weaker signal for Wed as drier air continues to funnel sw into
the region as the closed upper low is nudged off to the east.
Temperatures are forecast to trend warmer through midweek with
maxT +2-8F higher vs. Monday but still below climo in most
places.
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