91L, (aka PTC1 and Alex) tropical season starting on time in June

[cptcatz]

23 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Being a transplant from MA. I've always wanted to experience the fury of Mother Nature. The snowstorms, Noreasters, lived through them all. They're all docile compared to a tropical entity. Since being in FL I've had second thoughts, not worth risking life, property and living conditions. Go a week without electric in the Summer heat, most would agree it suxs.
91L is weak sauce I'll be lucky to see winds in the 20-25mph range. Right sided storms just don't cut it. Still fascinating watching the LL swirls getting shredded with the "fixed' open position N of the Yucatan.
NEXT...       

I wouldn't let your guard down when some of the squalls closer to the center come through. We could get some nice gusts. 

[turtlehurricane]

Last night the 'rain shield' moved in, more like the drizzle shield. It was drizzling for hours and hours. Then a few hours after sunrise we got a rainband with moderate-heavy rain, followed by more drizzle. Then another longer-lasting and heavier rain band moved in for awhile, but not torrential rains by any means. During all of that there were no winds.

Now the wind has suddenly come to life and is blowing through all the trees, probably 15-20 mph or so. And a HUGE rainband is moving in quickly from Miami. Looks like this is where the flood threat begins.

[Modfan2]

37 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Last night the 'rain shield' moved in, more like the drizzle shield. It was drizzling for hours and hours. Then a few hours after sunrise we got a rainband with moderate-heavy rain, followed by more drizzle. Then another longer-lasting and heavier rain band moved in for awhile, but not torrential rains by any means. During all of that there were no winds.

Now the wind has suddenly come to life and is blowing through all the trees, probably 15-20 mph or so. And a HUGE rainband is moving in quickly from Miami. Looks like this is where the flood threat begins.

The precip north of West Palm has lightened as it comes north

[Chinook]

Key West radar, some wind gusts well into the 30 mph range around Key West

[turtlehurricane]

Live view inside the cyclone

[Modfan2]

Is it possible that the shear is stronger pushing it a little further south?

[cptcatz]

Almost looks like there's a new area of rotation forming due west of Key West

[Modfan2]

37 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Almost looks like there's a new area of rotation forming due west of Key West

That’s why I asked earlier if maybe this forming/Tracking a little further south

[TPAwx]

2 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

Live view inside the cyclone

Thoughts and prayers as you contend with ongoing moderate showers and breezy conditions.  Stay vigilant.

[lee59]

Looks like lots of rain for south Florida but probably not much wind. We shall see. Surprised about putting up tropica storm warnings before there is a tropical storm but I quess they want to cover themselves. 

[SENC]

Maybe, I'll go take a look see as it rolls on by.. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Looks like lots of rain for south Florida but probably not much wind. We shall see. Surprised about putting up tropica storm warnings before there is a tropical storm but I quess they want to cover themselves. 

PTCs are new and the whole point, they can have watches and warnings before there is a TC, rather than not issuing a warning until the system is 3 hours offshore.  TS force winds (gales) do look like they may verify, whether it stays a PTC or becomes a TS.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Just now, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

PTCs are new and the whole point, they can have watches and warnings before there is a TC, rather than not issuing a warning until the system is 3 hours offshore.  TS force winds (gales) do look like they may verify, whether it stays a PTC or becomes a TS.

Why the doppler was developed.  A TorWarn based only on rotation may not verify, but more lead time than waiting for a clear hook echo on reflectivity or spotter or law enforcement reports of TOG.

[yoda]

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the disturbance has not become
better organized since the last advisory.  What is passing for the
center is an elongated trough extending from the northeastern
Yucatan peninsula to near 25N 84W with several embedded vorticity
maxima, and the center position for this advisory is a mean
position along this trough.  The aircraft did not find any
tropical-storm-force winds during its mission.  However,
Doppler wind data from the Key West WSR-88D radar suggests 35-kt
winds are occuring in the convective cluster near western Cuba
about 150 n mi east of the center.  Based on this, the system has
not developed the structure of a tropical cyclone and remains a
35-kt potential tropical cyclone.  It should be noted that the
initial 34-kt wind radii are a little deceiving, as those winds are
only occurring over a small area well east of the center.

While the initial motion is still somewhat uncertain, it appears
to be a little faster toward the northeast at 040/6 kt.  There is
no change in the track forecast philosophy from the last advisory.
The disturbance is now encountering the southern edge of the
mid-latitude westerlies, and the guidance is in good agreement that
it should move at a faster forward speed toward the northeast
during the next 48-72 h. Based on this, the forecast track continues
to bring the system across the southern or central Florida
Peninsula on Saturday. After 48-72 h, the system should move east-
northeastward across the western Atlantic.  The track guidance
remains in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast
track is little changed from the previous forecast.  It is still
possible that there could be erratic motion due to center
re-formation caused by convective bursts.

Strong southwesterly vertical shear is forecast to continue until
the system reaches the Florida Peninsula.  However, it remains
likely that convective bursts near the center will create enough
organized convection and improved circulation for the system to 
become a tropical storm in the next 12-24 h.  This could also cause 
slight strengthening before the system reaches Florida. A little 
more strengthening is again forecast over the Atlantic, due 
primarily to interaction with a mid-latitude trough.  This 
interaction will eventually lead to extratropical transition, which 
is forecast to be complete at about 96 h.  The new intensity 
forecast again has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast.

The main impact from this system continues to be widespread heavy
rain that is expected to spread over portions of western Cuba, the
southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern
Bahamas during the next couple of days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected across western
Cuba, where life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
possible.

2. Heavy rain will affect portions of Central Florida, South
Florida, and the Florida Keys today and continue through Saturday.
Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across South
Florida and in the Keys.  Flash and urban flooding is also possible
across the northwestern Bahamas.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
western Cuba this afternoon and tonight, in Florida tonight and on
Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.  Tropical
storm conditions are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba
this afternoon and tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 23.0N  85.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  04/0600Z 24.4N  84.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  04/1800Z 26.4N  81.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/0600Z 28.5N  78.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  05/1800Z 30.5N  75.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 32.0N  70.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 33.1N  66.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 34.0N  59.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  08/1800Z 35.5N  54.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

[lee59]

3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Why the doppler was developed.  A TorWarn based only on rotation may not verify, but more lead time than waiting for a clear hook echo on reflectivity or spotter or law enforcement reports of TOG.

All makes sense to me.

[cptcatz]

Looks like it's not going to even be designated a cyclone before hitting Florida. 

[Modfan2]

12 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Looks like it's not going to even be designated a cyclone before hitting Florida. 

Looking at the radar it appears precip appears to fall apart Lake Okeechobee north? 

[Prospero]

27 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Looks like it's not going to even be designated a cyclone before hitting Florida. 

Well, still the first of the year. In my backyard, a few sprinkles. But the steady breeze is from this first PTC of 2022. The breeze is strong enough we can hear it inside our home. Outside it is fairly warm, and steady. It is not a "sea breeze" like we have almost every day in July, it is not an out-flow boundary from a big thunderstorm coming across Central Florida, it is definitely the outer swirls of some kind of Tropical system. It is good to feel, and also good to know it is nothing to fret.

We could use a little more rain up here, but this week was a break from the dry season with 3 or 4 inches of rain as the sun set a few nights.

Hope it gets a name, but if not I'll remember it for a little while as the "first" this season.

 

 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Looks awfully disorganized at this hour.

[NeffsvilleWx]

0.15" here in central Brevard. Not expecting much more than a rainy, windy day tomorrow, but I secured all of the outdoor stuff this evening after seeing KMLB's graphic:

 

 

Better safe than sorry, right?

[Prospero]

Quote

Better safe than sorry, right?

I took down umbrellas, even way up here in Tampa Bay. Put a few yard decorations in safer places.

Right now, nice and calm, slight PTC1 breeze. Will be asleep when something could blow through. No concerns, but always better safe than sorry.

 

 

 

[Dbullsfan22]

1 minute ago, Prospero said:

I took down umbrellas, even way up here in Tampa Bay. Put a few yard decorations in safer places.

Right now, nice and calm, slight PTC1 breeze. Will be asleep when something could blow through. No concerns, but always better safe than sorry.

 

 

 

From the looks of it I’m starting to doubt we even get much if any rain up here just north of Tampa unless it wobbles hard to the north. 

[NeffsvilleWx]

27 minutes ago, Dbullsfan22 said:

From the looks of it I’m starting to doubt we even get much if any rain up here just north of Tampa unless it wobbles hard to the north. 

Were points north of Tampa ever really in play? I thought the cutoff has been I-4 pretty consistently over the past 48 hours or so.

[Dbullsfan22]

Only optimistically 

[Prospero]

Sitting outside tonight is nice.

Nothing like a breeze from a tropical system. 5 to 15 mph at best, but it is everywhere. Not just waves of gusts and winds we see all the time. It is like an ocean moving over us. Even little winds sound amazing they are everywhere. The sky is moving over us. Palm trees, Live Oaks, everything is dancing.

Looks like rain is out. No strong winds. But tonight is a tropical system night and it feels great.

[w1pf]

in east-central Palm Beach County: 4.27 in the Davis since midnight, on top of 1.92 yesterday.. pretty wet..

[yoda]

Lol wrong way system 

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
500 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022

The organization of the disturbance over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico has continued to deteriorate overnight.  Scatterometer data
indicated that the system has an elongated region 200 n mi long by
50 n mi wide of light (< 10 kt) winds and no well-defined center.
In addition, about 30 kt of west-southwesterly shear and mid-level
dry air has stripped all associated deep convection in a
more-or-less linear band that extends 150-200 n mi east of the
estimated center.  In other words, the system has gone the wrong
way in becoming a tropical cyclone.  The estimated center is
located near the northern end of the area of light winds, and
maximum winds are held at 35 kt based on recent sustained winds of
29-31 kt measured at several marine sites near the Florida Keys.

The disturbance is moving faster toward the northeast (045/16 kt),
but this appears less of a continuous motion and more of a
re-formation of the center since yesterday afternoon.  This
behavior is likely to continue through the day as the system makes
its way toward and across Florida.  After that, the global models
suggest that the center may jump or re-form near the east-central
coast of Florida this afternoon or this evening and then develop
and maintain a more familiar tropical cyclone-like structure as it
heads northeastward and east-northeastward over the western
Atlantic through Monday.  The model trackers do not appear to be
handling the jumping of the low pressure or the re-formation of the
center, and for this cycle the NHC forecast leans heavily on a blend
of the global model fields.

Although deep-layer shear is expected to increase further, a
shortwave trough moving eastward along the northern Gulf coast
appears as though it will interact with the disturbance in about 24
hours and allow the expected newly formed low east of Florida to
develop a more well-defined circulation than what we've seen over
the past day or two.  This trough interaction could also allow the
system to intensify slightly over the next few days.  However, the
global models now suggest that the system could become an
extratropical low by day 3, which is now reflected in the official
forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of South Florida
and the Keys as well as the northwestern Bahamas today. Considerable
flash and urban flooding is expected across South Florida. Flash and
urban flooding is possible across the Florida Keys and the
northwestern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Florida today, mainly in squalls, and in the northwestern
Bahamas by this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 25.6N  83.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  04/1800Z 27.1N  80.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  05/0600Z 28.6N  78.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  05/1800Z 30.7N  74.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 32.8N  70.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 34.0N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 34.7N  61.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  08/0600Z 37.5N  52.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/0600Z 42.0N  42.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cptcatz]

From my backyard Ambient station in Boca Raton:

Yesterday: 2.14"

As of 8:26am today: 4.71"

Current pressure: 1,003.12 hPa

Radar looks like there's still another couple inches to come.

[cptcatz]

We've been getting really impressive torrential rain for the past hour. Now up to 6.52" for today and continuing to rise fast, which means nearly 2 inches in the last 1.5 hour. Pressure down to 1,001.07 mb.

[Modfan2]

37 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

We've been getting really impressive torrential rain for the past hour. Now up to 6.52" for today and continuing to rise fast, which means nearly 2 inches in the last 1.5 hour. Pressure down to 1,001.07 mb.

Not nearly as much up here in Martin County; you guys have had a wet last 30 days or so, not so much up here.