Ahoff Posted July 11, 2022 Author Share Posted July 11, 2022 32 minutes ago, TimB said: Trend seems to be toward mostly garden variety heat, but I wouldn’t rule out a day or two of big heat (95+) mid to late next week if everything lines up right. Mostly likely we have upper 80s and low 90s at worst, that's what I'd expect, but Euro teasing potentially 95+ at times. Can't be ruled out I guess, just not the most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted July 11, 2022 Author Share Posted July 11, 2022 The 12z GFS also throwing out near 100 degree temps later in the week next week, see Friday and especially Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 11, 2022 Share Posted July 11, 2022 34 minutes ago, Ahoff said: The 12z GFS also throwing out near 100 degree temps later in the week next week, see Friday and especially Saturday. Also looks quite dry. Well under an inch of rain over the entire 16-day run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted July 11, 2022 Author Share Posted July 11, 2022 52 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Also looks quite dry. Well under an inch of rain over the entire 16-day run. If it keeps humidity down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 11, 2022 Share Posted July 11, 2022 2 hours ago, Ahoff said: Mostly likely we have upper 80s and low 90s at worst, that's what I'd expect, but Euro teasing potentially 95+ at times. Can't be ruled out I guess, just not the most likely. Euro backed it off. We’ll see if it comes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted July 11, 2022 Author Share Posted July 11, 2022 18 minutes ago, TimB said: Euro backed it off. We’ll see if it comes back. Yeah, GFS pumped it up, Euro knocked it back. Maybe find the middle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted July 11, 2022 Author Share Posted July 11, 2022 Right on our doorstep. My only question is what do they consider "excessive heat"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 11, 2022 Share Posted July 11, 2022 37 minutes ago, TimB said: Euro backed it off. We’ll see if it comes back. Backed off a bit on Wednesday, but still a pretty warm day (mid to upper 80s). And it does show near 90 this coming Saturday, with low 90s on Sunday. The extreme heat on the GFS begins a little after the end of the Euro run. Still looks like a very hot pattern overall on the Euro. Shows Thursday morning in the low 70s, with 19C H85 temperatures. Probably would see 90+ by Thursday in this regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 Both models (Euro and GFS) have basically backed way down, and just want to give rain everyday. Definitely don't want rain that week, rather it'd be 92 and sunny all week than 80 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 Why does the GFS and its ensembles always show a warm tongue extending into western Pennsylvania? It doesn't look based in reality at all. I've never really taken a close look at the long range modeled temperatures, but almost invariably it shows Pittsburgh and southwest Pennsylvania warmer than locations that have warmer average high temperatures (in some cases, by several degrees). This image isn't cherrypicked - the warm tongue is present throughout the model run to varying degrees. But you see here it shows the 2PM temperature band (10-90th percentile) for July 27 to be 79-96 in Pittsburgh, but 75-91 in Columbus, 77-94 in Cincinnati, 76-94 in Indianapolis - yet these are all places that are about 2-4 degrees warmer on average. It even shows us warmer than the coastal plain (even DC/Baltimore area) which is a few to several degrees warmer. Chicago is always oddly cool, even though its actually 2 degrees warmer on average. Even Cleveland has an average high temperature one degree warmer, but invariably it shows Pittsburgh a couple to several degrees warmer. Has anyone ever noticed this phenomenon before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Why does the GFS and its ensembles always show a warm tongue extending into western Pennsylvania? It doesn't look based in reality at all. I've never really taken a close look at the long range modeled temperatures, but almost invariably it shows Pittsburgh and southwest Pennsylvania warmer than locations that have warmer average high temperatures (in some cases, by several degrees). This image isn't cherrypicked - the warm tongue is present throughout the model run to varying degrees. But you see here it shows the 2PM temperature band (10-90th percentile) for July 27 to be 79-96 in Pittsburgh, but 75-91 in Columbus, 77-94 in Cincinnati, 76-94 in Indianapolis - yet these are all places that are about 2-4 degrees warmer on average. It even shows us warmer than the coastal plain (even DC/Baltimore area) which is a few to several degrees warmer. Chicago is always oddly cool, even though its actually 2 degrees warmer on average. Even Cleveland has an average high temperature one degree warmer, but invariably it shows Pittsburgh a couple to several degrees warmer. I don't know seems to get that warm tongue right in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 Could we escape today without any real rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 Could we escape today without any real rain?Yes. HRRR runs after 18z yesterday really backed off of the rain west of the city. Everything forming south and east. Looks like that is holding true on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 38 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Could we escape today without any real rain? We’re getting pretty close to that “we really need rain” stage. Wouldn’t say it’s dire yet, but we could well be dry through the weekend if we miss out today. But I’ve really enjoyed not mowing, so maybe I shouldn’t be worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 We’re getting pretty close to that “we really need rain” stage. Wouldn’t say it’s dire yet, but we could well be dry through the weekend if we miss out today. But I’ve really enjoyed not mowing, so maybe I shouldn’t be worried.I’m ready at least for a little bit. I’m not looking for ton of rain, but a nice thunderstorm here and there would work wonders. I love landscape and gardening, this has been a tough stretch on my plants . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 28 minutes ago, TimB said: We’re getting pretty close to that “we really need rain” stage. Wouldn’t say it’s dire yet, but we could well be dry through the weekend if we miss out today. But I’ve really enjoyed not mowing, so maybe I shouldn’t be worried. I really don't care if it rains. We all know eventually the flood gates will open, so the situation is never really dire here. I would however like to see no rain next week, as it's our church's festival all next week. Looks like it's a rainy forecast for next week based on more recent model runs. Not happy about that, but time to change for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ahoff said: I really don't care if it rains. We all know eventually the flood gates will open, so the situation is never really dire here. I would however like to see no rain next week, as it's our church's festival all next week. Looks like it's a rainy forecast for next week based on more recent model runs. Not happy about that, but time to change for sure. As I see it, there are two possibilities for next week: either warm, humid, rainy and gross, or deathly hot but dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, TimB said: As I see it, there are two possibilities for next week: either warm, humid, rainy and gross, or deathly hot but dry. Honestly, for my plans, deathly hot and dry, sorry to everyone, lol. Could get a mix too, start in one regime and then the dome shifts. But, the humidity is much better. At one point the dew point was 74 today, down to 63 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 90 at AGC, but only 86 at PIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: 90 at AGC, but only 86 at PIT. Hit at least 88 at PIT. We'll see if interhour it went higher. But today overachieved, while yesterday underachieved. Edit: Topped out at 89 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted July 12, 2022 Author Share Posted July 12, 2022 Wow, GFS went from 96 next Friday to 66 are pouring in a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 3 hours ago, Ahoff said: Hit at least 88 at PIT. We'll see if interhour it went higher. But today overachieved, while yesterday underachieved. Edit: Topped out at 89 today. I assume we’ll hit 90 at some point this month but it’d be funny if we didn’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 14 hours ago, Ahoff said: Both models (Euro and GFS) have basically backed way down, and just want to give rain everyday. Definitely don't want rain that week, rather it'd be 92 and sunny all week than 80 and rain. The 18z GFS didn't look too bad. Monday looked like the day with the most widespread clouds and (thunder)showers, keeping temperatures in the mid 70s. Tuesday's activity looked less numerous, with temperatures climbing in to the mid 80s. The rest of the week just looks like typical dog days of summer stuff, with heat and humidity - upper 80s to near 90, and scattered thunderstorms around each and every day. Didn't look like any washouts over that period, just hit or miss activity... but of course there could be locally heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 4 hours ago, Ahoff said: Wow, GFS went from 96 next Friday to 66 are pouring in a few runs. And the 18z run was back up to 90, with high humidity. Wonder what the 00z run will show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted July 13, 2022 Author Share Posted July 13, 2022 10 hours ago, TimB said: I assume we’ll hit 90 at some point this month but it’d be funny if we didn’t. Yeah, it'd be weird considering it was 94 in June. Could happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted July 13, 2022 Author Share Posted July 13, 2022 9 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: And the 18z run was back up to 90, with high humidity. Wonder what the 00z run will show? 43 and a mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Yeah, it'd be weird considering it was 94 in June. Could happen though. Especially weird that it would be two years in a row with 90s in June and none in July. Still, I think we get there a couple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted July 13, 2022 Author Share Posted July 13, 2022 44 minutes ago, TimB said: Especially weird that it would be two years in a row with 90s in June and none in July. Still, I think we get there a couple times. There's definitely a few chances next week, if the conditions are right. Beyond that, who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 July is usually our peak severe month. Been pretty quiet, overall. I'm assuming we're going to pay for this later with a soggy fall or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted July 13, 2022 Author Share Posted July 13, 2022 1 minute ago, jwilson said: July is usually our peak severe month. Been pretty quiet, overall. I'm assuming we're going to pay for this later with a soggy fall or something. I thought June was our peak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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