Ahoff Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 Meteorological Summer starts June 1st, so...here's the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 This is starting to feel like one of those summers that doesn’t hit 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted May 31, 2022 Author Share Posted May 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, TimB said: This is starting to feel like one of those summers that doesn’t hit 90. Well, we've been undershooting most forecast highs so far, so...maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Ahoff said: Well, we've been undershooting most forecast highs so far, so...maybe. I hope you whine about it all summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted May 31, 2022 Author Share Posted May 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I hope you whine about it all summer I actually won't whine like you. But keep waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted June 10, 2022 Author Share Posted June 10, 2022 The weather app is spitting out 94 on Wednesday, even for the airport, lol. It just throws out these wild ass numbers after a model run. Likely will settle around 84 in the end, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 2 hours ago, Ahoff said: The weather app is spitting out 94 on Wednesday, even for the airport, lol. It just throws out these wild ass numbers after a model run. Likely will settle around 84 in the end, lol. I don't know. NWS PBZ seeing the potential for a "few 90 degree days" middle of next week. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A pattern shift is then expected next week as persistent upper troughing eventually fills via an amplifying ridge across the southeastern CONUS. Long range solutions indicate potential for 500mb heights ranging between 590-594 dam, which implies the potential for a few 90 degree days by mid week. Meanwhile, with the forecast area on the northern edge of this building ridge, within continued, nwly flow aloft, unsettled conditions should remain possible through at least mid-week with ongoing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted June 10, 2022 Author Share Posted June 10, 2022 50 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: I don't know. NWS PBZ seeing the potential for a "few 90 degree days" middle of next week. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A pattern shift is then expected next week as persistent upper troughing eventually fills via an amplifying ridge across the southeastern CONUS. Long range solutions indicate potential for 500mb heights ranging between 590-594 dam, which implies the potential for a few 90 degree days by mid week. Meanwhile, with the forecast area on the northern edge of this building ridge, within continued, nwly flow aloft, unsettled conditions should remain possible through at least mid-week with ongoing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Will be interesting then. Some summer tracking for sure then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted June 12, 2022 Author Share Posted June 12, 2022 How high realistically do we see it getting Wednesday. I’d say our ceiling is 92 maybe 93, but the 95 being forecast will be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Ahoff said: How high realistically do we see it getting Wednesday. I’d say our ceiling is 92 maybe 93, but the 95 being forecast will be tough. Best support for eye-popping temps is probably that the latest GEFS ensemble mean for 18z Wednesday is 96. None of the op models or other ensembles have us quite that hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted June 13, 2022 Author Share Posted June 13, 2022 Yeah, so realistically low 90s is the best bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 anybody interested in the possible derecho tomorrow? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted June 13, 2022 Author Share Posted June 13, 2022 9 hours ago, Rd9108 said: anybody interested in the possible derecho tomorrow? Interested in it not happening, lol. Hopefully there isn't too much damage if it comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted June 13, 2022 Author Share Posted June 13, 2022 Heat watches and warnings are creeping closer. If the temperature forecasts hold in the mid 90s, I'd imagine a heat advisory for Wednesday would go up. Sounds like crazy humidity with this, so that will be unpleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 PBZ wrote up a decent discussion of the potential derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 This would be crazy warm for 12Z. NAM shows mid 90s late Wednesday afternoon ahead of this, but I thought the forecast overnight temperatures Thursday morning were actually more noteworthy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: This would be crazy warm for 12Z. NAM shows mid 90s late Wednesday afternoon ahead of this, but I thought the forecast overnight temperatures Thursday morning were actually more noteworthy... For context, here are the record warm minimums at Pittsburgh. Every single one of them is from the old downtown station, with the exception of the 78 degree low on July 17, 1990. Of course, if the above map came to fruition, it almost certainly would not hold because there would likely be a rain-cooled low well below that the following evening. Even in the absence of rain, it probably would cool below those levels by 1:00 a.m. EDT. This almost always happens in these situations, but even so I can't ever recall 80+ here in the morning. Usually, its like 75-77 type morning lows that fall to lows in the upper 60s/low 70s due to rain or a cool front passage later in the day. 82 Jul 1, 1901 81 Aug 6, 1918 80 Jul 21, 1930 79 Jul 28, 1901 79 Aug 5, 1918 79 Jul 20, 1930 79 Jul 25, 1934 79 Jul 28, 1901 78 Jun 20, 1924 78 Jul 6, 1911 78 Jul 10, 1881 78 Jul 17, 1990 78 Jul 18, 1887 78 Jul 26, 1892 78 Jul 27 1876 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted June 13, 2022 Author Share Posted June 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: This would be crazy warm for 12Z. NAM shows mid 90s late Wednesday afternoon ahead of this, but I thought the forecast overnight temperatures Thursday morning were actually more noteworthy... I can never remember what time of day those time stamps correspond to. What time of day is 12z? I mean it's morning, but what time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ahoff said: I can never remember what time of day those time stamps correspond to. What time of day is 12z? I mean it's morning, but what time? 8:00 A.M. EDT / 7:00 A.M. EST. Probably should have shown the prior map at 9Z (5:00 A.M. EDT/4:00 A.M. EST) for a pre-sunrise reading. It was about the same (82F in Pittsburgh). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 enhanced getting closer with each update. It's honestly worst case middle of the night and temps about to sore. As long as I don't lose power I won't be upset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 On 6/12/2022 at 9:46 PM, Ahoff said: Yeah, so realistically low 90s is the best bet. This is starting to look like a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homie J Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 We have our severe thunderstorm watch. Hope we don't lose power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted June 14, 2022 Author Share Posted June 14, 2022 7 hours ago, TimB said: This is starting to look like a good call. Ron Smiley just said rain chance at about 11 am tomorrow, so that kills chances of 90 pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 3 hours ago, Ahoff said: Ron Smiley just said rain chance at about 11 am tomorrow, so that kills chances of 90 pretty much. 12z HRRR has us getting to 97 tomorrow but first of all, it’s the long range HRRR and second of all, everything else seems to have at least some rain/storms and 90 is indeed a struggle on some models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 Last night missed, which is good. I don’t like storms and like overnight storms even less. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 1 hour ago, TimB said: 12z HRRR has us getting to 97 tomorrow but first of all, it’s the long range HRRR and second of all, everything else seems to have at least some rain/storms and 90 is indeed a struggle on some models. One thing to keep in mind is the HRRR is a mesoscale model, so it's designed to take into account small features like elevation changes and urbanization. The 97 shown on the Pivotal maps is centered on downtown. Looks to top out around 94 at the airport, where official records are kept. That's not too unreasonable for a high end estimate, but probably more like 90 or 91, maybe 92, given model consensus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted June 14, 2022 Author Share Posted June 14, 2022 Today mid 80s look to be a struggle. Clouds are hanging pretty tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 Just to illustrate this. The KPIT ASOS is at 40.5N, 80.27W. Here's the temperature at that gridpoint when it's printing the 97 in Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted June 14, 2022 Author Share Posted June 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Just to illustrate this. The KPIT ASOS is at 40.5N, 80.27W. Here's the temperature at that gridpoint when it's printing the 97 in Pittsburgh. Either way, still hot. That makes sense though too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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