madwx Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 Solid storm over my house right now. Active with almost constant thunder. All cloud to cloud though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2022 Author Share Posted June 10, 2022 Both the record high and record high minimum look to be in reach for Chicago on 6/15. The records are 95 (kind of a low number compared to surrounding days) and 78... both set in 1994. Records for 6/14 should be safe, but won't be too far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2022 Author Share Posted June 10, 2022 Progged airmass aloft is pretty extraordinary as it first comes in Monday into Tuesday. Model consensus has very warm/dry conditions aloft with a zone of 850 mb temps in the upper 20s C with even some 30C showing up at the end of the NAM. You'll almost never see that at the longitude of the Mississippi River and when you do, it's not this early in the season. There's some "modification" aloft as we head through Tue and Wed but still pretty anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 It's pretty impressive when your days 4 and 5 point forecast is 97°, especially in mid-June. EDIT: Both 98° now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Triple digit heat index looking more likely middle of next week also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Dews shoot from the 40s to the mid 70s here Monday morning on the 12z Euro. That's pretty impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Both the record high and record high minimum look to be in reach for Chicago on 6/15. The records are 95 (kind of a low number compared to surrounding days) and 78... both set in 1994. Records for 6/14 should be safe, but won't be too far off.The only one that has a shot to me is Wednesday’s record high, which as you mention is “only” 95°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 DVN has already been at 97 this year, and here and at MLI we've hit 96. This doesn't look as exciting as it would be given we've already had some intense heat, so the only thing that will be of excitement is if we can make triple digits this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Ready 2 mcs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2022 Author Share Posted June 11, 2022 I was looking at the RAOB records and it appears that there has never been an 850 mb temp above 25C at DVN in the first half of June. DVN records only go back to 1995. However, the same thing is also true at ILX, and the records for them (and their preceding ob sites) go back to 1949. This will be put to the test coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2022 Author Share Posted June 11, 2022 What will this map look like in another 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2022 Author Share Posted June 11, 2022 Let's play a game. Do we see a 100 degree reading at an ASOS or AWOS site in this sub east of the Mississippi River next week? Not extremely confident, but I'll say yes. The most likely place for me would be somewhere in southern/western IL. Wouldn't 100% rule it out at a notorious warm spot like MDW but my guess is that a 98 or 99 peak is more likely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2022 Author Share Posted June 11, 2022 Wednesday looks like one of those days where the mild start leads to like 90 around 10 am at ORD and you're thinking hey, is it gonna hit 100 based off of the old school "10 degrees after 10 am rule." But then the warming slows down more than usual in the presence of an airmass aloft that doesn't really support triple digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Ready 2 mcsmonday is your one and only shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Wednesday looks like one of those days where the mild start leads to like 90 around 10 am at ORD and you're thinking hey, is it gonna hit 100 based off of the old school "10 degrees after 10 am rule." But then the warming slows down more than usual in the presence of an airmass aloft that doesn't really support triple digits. There's been some indication that clouds could co ck block max heat potenial here in western IL Wed. Hot temps are for sure, but making it beyond the mid 90s is still in question. Tuesday looks like our best shot at 100 here in the QCA, although even Monday could make 97-99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: What will this map look like in another 10 days? I'm curious what causes that sharply negative blob near Dallas amid surrounding positive anoms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2022 Author Share Posted June 11, 2022 LOT explicity has 80+ forecast for the low at MDW/ORD Tue night-Wed morning. That doesn't happen very often at this lead time as it usually gets raised to that on the day of (or it never gets forecasted at all). Whether or not the low is upper 70s or 80+, it will be a high start for Wed morning as alluded to in my previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2022 Author Share Posted June 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Torchageddon said: I'm curious what causes that sharply negative blob near Dallas amid surrounding positive anoms. Likely just a data error when it looks so dramatic like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Let's play a game. Do we see a 100 degree reading at an ASOS or AWOS site in this sub east of the Mississippi River next week? Not extremely confident, but I'll say yes. The most likely place for me would be somewhere in southern/western IL. Wouldn't 100% rule it out at a notorious warm spot like MDW but my guess is that a 98 or 99 peak is more likely there.I’ll go with a peak of 96 ORD and 98 MDW for this period.However, if any appreciable convective activity occurs across the area on Monday, I’ll knock that back to 94 ORD and 96 MDW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 12, 2022 Author Share Posted June 12, 2022 850 mb temps pushing 33C in Iowa. Inversion is below this height, so this insane temp doesn't get tapped into. That would pretty much be a heat apocalypse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Eastern Great Lakes not seeing much of this heat but a possible glancing blow 85-88 is max I’ve seen for GTA which is still decent for mid June but nothing crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Nice lightning display this evening. Picked up 0.16" here. Down in the QC many areas picked up a quick half inch to inch of rain along with 40-50mph winds/pea hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 a MCS on the front end of a heatwave is one of my favorite summertime events. Losing power due to aforementioned MCS at the start of a heatwave my least favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Feels like today is going to over perform temp wise here in EC IL. That sun it hot and it’s very humid out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 DTW area looking at 98 to 100 in the middle of the week. I work outside so that’s gonna be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 After a long stretch of where could only eek out 0.10" or so each rain episode, yesterday finally had a respectable 0.84". Looks like might be able to add some more today. I'll take whatever, going to need the moisture in the ground for what is coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 11 hours ago, Hoosier said: 850 mb temps pushing 33C in Iowa. Inversion is below this height, so this insane temp doesn't get tapped into. That would pretty much be a heat apocalypse. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: I’m glad I’m not the only one who had this in their head haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 1 hour ago, King James said: Feels like today is going to over perform temp wise here in EC IL. That sun it hot and it’s very humid out. mostly cloudy and chilly 60's. Been that way since Thursday. Now raining. Dummy me looked at the forecast that called for a chance of an early morning shower and set up my yard for an afternoon barbecue. Should've known better. 358 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2022 TODAY PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING 1021 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2022 REST OF TODAY PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 12, 2022 Author Share Posted June 12, 2022 48 minutes ago, Baum said: mostly cloudy and chilly 60's. Been that way since Thursday. Now raining. Dummy me looked at the forecast that called for a chance of an early morning shower and set up my yard for an afternoon barbecue. Should've known better. 358 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2022 TODAY PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING 1021 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2022 REST OF TODAY PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. Best of luck for your afternoon barbecue. Does look like it will stop raining by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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