SchaumburgStormer Posted June 22, 2022 Share Posted June 22, 2022 Dry FROPA. Lawns starting to stress, which I don't necessarily mind with $6 gas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2022 Author Share Posted June 22, 2022 If the weekend doesn't pan out with good rains, oh boy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted June 22, 2022 Share Posted June 22, 2022 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: If the weekend doesn't pan out with good rains, oh boy. yup. I'm really hoping for a good soaker saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 22, 2022 Share Posted June 22, 2022 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: If the weekend doesn't pan out with good rains, oh boy. It definitely won't pan out to anything here. Rain shields are up. Rock solid screw-zone right over GRR will persist at least until July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2022 Author Share Posted June 22, 2022 Through June 21, Chicago has had 4 days AOA 95 this year, which is tied for the 3rd most by that day. Not including this year, 8 other years have had at least 3 days AOA 95 by June 21. Out of those 8 years, all of them went on to produce additional 95+ degree days, and in some cases many more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 22, 2022 Share Posted June 22, 2022 Is GRR winding up with less than 1.00" of precip in June a statistic of note? It's sitting at 0.85" as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2022 Author Share Posted June 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, frostfern said: Is GRR winding up with less than 1.00" of precip in June a statistic of note? It's sitting at 0.85" as of now. I'd say so. It's only happened 4 times since the 1890s -- 1908, 1959, 1984 and 1988. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 As mentioned in the other thread, final high temps for today across the area... 93 MDW 89 ORD 90 RFD 89 Ex-Home 90°+ day tally for the year... 13 - MDW12 - RFD9 - Current Home9 - Ex-Home7 - ORD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2022 Author Share Posted June 23, 2022 24 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: As mentioned in the other thread, final high temps for today across the area... 93 MDW 89 ORD 90 RFD 89 Ex-Home 90°+ day tally for the year... 13 - MDW12 - RFD9 - Current Home9 - Ex-Home7 - ORD That is big time to already be in double digits at RFD and MDW. For both places, it ranks in the top 10 for 90s by this date (actually 4th place for MDW). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 IWX is jumping on the bandwagon. I honestly haven't heard of a "flash drought" until this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 Hit 95 both yesterday and Tuesday in Toronto. Humidity had us feeling close to 110 Broke the daily record both days. Need some rain though, it's been really dry since Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: Hit 95 both yesterday and Tuesday in Toronto. Humidity had us feeling close to 110 Broke the daily record both days. Need some rain though, it's been really dry since Spring. I'm very surprised Toronto got to 95 yesterday, I only got to 83. The early evening got cool and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 35 minutes ago, Torchageddon said: I'm very surprised Toronto got to 95 yesterday, I only got to 83. The early evening got cool and dry. I agree, I'm surprised myself. Maybe it's the UHI? Not even Windsor has hit 35C this year. Toronto has hit it twice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 What's the word on rainfall on Saturday? LOT sounded a bit more bullish this morning in their AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2022 Author Share Posted June 23, 2022 Significantly more yellow compared to last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2022 Author Share Posted June 23, 2022 13 minutes ago, Baum said: What's the word on rainfall on Saturday? LOT sounded a bit more bullish this morning in their AFD. With typical evaporation rates at this time of year, anything under a half inch or so would only be beneficial for a couple days at most. Need more regular rains or if not, then heavier rains when they do occur. After Saturday, next chance isn't for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 23 minutes ago, Hoosier said: With typical evaporation rates at this time of year, anything under a half inch or so would only be beneficial for a couple days at most. Need more regular rains or if not, then heavier rains when they do occur. After Saturday, next chance isn't for a while. 23 minutes ago, Hoosier said: With typical evaporation rates at this time of year, anything under a half inch or so would only be beneficial for a couple days at most. Need more regular rains or if not, then heavier rains when they do occur. After Saturday, next chance isn't for a while. How fast things change. Could sure use a meandering upper level low traversing the region with cool and showers. Of course, pretty much passed the time of year where those occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2022 Author Share Posted June 23, 2022 Curious to see what Midway will pull off tomorrow. If clouds hold off long enough and lake cooling doesn't really affect them, could make a case for 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 Moderate drought officially in east central Illinois. If this weekends rain doesn’t materialize, we could be in trouble. Right now forecast has 0.2”. 88 currently, should tag 90. lawns are getting crispy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 I don't share the optimism for appreciable short term dryness/drought relief rainfall this weekend in the Chicago metro. The Saturday morning potential is from a likely rapidly decaying MCS due to outrunning the instability axis. While the 12z ECMWF, Canadian, and UKMET have optimistic outputs for the Saturday evening/night threat, the timing seems rather late and western and southwest/southern CWA appear more favored for any decent totals. Of the two periods, Saturday evening/night has the highest but still low chance for widespread appreciable drought relief. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 Some of the anomaly maps being posted really demonstrate the capricious nature of convective precip, very tight gradients between the haves and have-nots.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2022 Author Share Posted June 23, 2022 Caught this in the writeup for the Drought Monitor. Even an inch of rain per week at this time of year probably isn't enough to keep up, especially when temperatures are hot. One report out of Missouri estimated the total weekly loss of surface moisture to be around 1.75 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2022 Author Share Posted June 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Some of the anomaly maps being posted really demonstrate the capricious nature of convective precip, very tight gradients between the haves and have-nots. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Often the case at this time of year. Best two ways to get more homogenous totals are organized MCS activity or a tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2022 Author Share Posted June 23, 2022 The next ~3 weeks will be important imo. Some signs of a more active pattern as we get to July. If that does not pan out for some reason or if it's not spread around enough, then I think we're really in dangerous territory come mid-July based on where I feel like the pattern goes then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 The lake breeze the great equalizer today, with ORD and MDW topping out at 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 92 today both here and at MLI. Doesn't feel too bad though with 60s dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2022 Author Share Posted June 23, 2022 21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The lake breeze the great equalizer today, with ORD and MDW topping out at 85. MDW closer to the lake than ORD and they still tied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: Caught this in the writeup for the Drought Monitor. Even an inch of rain per week at this time of year probably isn't enough to keep up, especially when temperatures are hot. One report out of Missouri estimated the total weekly loss of surface moisture to be around 1.75 inches. One could say we're living in some dtrying times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 24, 2022 Share Posted June 24, 2022 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: The next ~3 weeks will be important imo. Some signs of a more active pattern as we get to July. If that does not pan out for some reason or if it's not spread around enough, then I think we're really in dangerous territory come mid-July based on where I feel like the pattern goes then. The Saturday precip does the classic Great Lakes Split. Northwest Indiana and Southwest Michigan are in the screw zone between better forcing to the north and better moisture to the southwest. The Wednesday cold front is losing strength and is moisture starved by the time it gets down here too. Maybe a random popup before it comes back north as a warm front, but not likely as gulf moisture return is mostly to the west as usual. I'm not counting on any rain until July 1 at the earliest. Doom and gloom man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted June 24, 2022 Share Posted June 24, 2022 Cells popped around here. Under Svr stm watch. Some warned cells. Pretty good hail sigs in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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