June 2022 General Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

Just now, Cary67 said:

Still in school? My kids were out May 20th

CPS starts/ends late 

[Chicago Storm]

ORD has jumped from 69° to 75° to 82° the last 3 hours.

86° at MDW as of 8AM.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Nothing like a 9:30 89/78/103 split 

[CheeselandSkies]

CPS starts/ends late 

Had to pause at that one for a moment. My wife is a public child welfare social worker so CPS automatically reads "child protective services" to me.

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[hardypalmguy]

MKE up to 88.  Rapid ascent.

[beavis1729]

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

DVN had a low of 80 this morning, and MLI had a heat index of 90 at 3am.  

Low of 79 at MLI - warmest min on record for so early in the season, by far.  Previous record was 79 on 6/27/1874 (!).

[A-L-E-K]

my point only has a low of 78 but bet we can do 80+

[Chicago Storm]

ORD got some decent rain today, but MDW did not (only 0.04" there).
This brings me to tomorrow and my thoughts on hitting 100F in Chicago.  ORD is the official observation site of course, but we pay attention to MDW too.  
850 mb temps in the mid 20s C and mixing to that level would support 100F temps, but the issue is that progged mixing heights look to be a bit below that level.  Based on this being such a marginal setup to begin with, today's rains, and temperature performance at ORD so far this warm season, I do not believe that ORD has a meaningful chance to hit the century mark tomorrow.  
MDW is a more interesting one.  Given the lack of recent rain and it tending to run warmer than ORD, I believe there's a shot of touching 100 there... I'd give it maybe about a 40% chance at this point.  Here's some "benchmark" temps that I'd want to see if MDW is to have a good chance of triple digits:
10 am:  89
Noon:  95
2 pm:  98
These are not hard rules, and failure to meet those marks wouldn't necessarily preclude a high of 100, but I think it's a pretty good guideline of target numbers to try to reach.

MDW exceeded your 10AM mark, with a peak of 90°. ORD actually hit your mark with a peak of 89°.

[A-L-E-K]

we gonna mix these dews out at all, total swamp mode

[Hoosier]

14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

MDW exceeded your 10AM mark, with a peak of 90°. ORD actually hit your mark with a peak of 89°.

I don't think ORD can keep the pace though.

Likely heading for a photo finish at MDW though.

[beavis1729]

89/75/100 here, not a cloud in the sky

[hardypalmguy]

Lake breeze back in MKE.  Down to 83.

[Scorpion]

Feels like brutal Florida summer out, been several years since I’ve felt those conditions so my body can’t handle

[Baum]

best climo

[beavis1729]

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

We'll see, but I wonder if early next week starts to bump hotter than it currently appears.  It has more of a westerly component in the low level flow than what we are seeing now and in the short term, and in general and without regard to any localized influences, those days with more of a westerly aspect have tended to perform well wrt big heat in previous years.

Agree…and the point for MSP is 100+ for Sunday and Monday. 

[hardypalmguy]

Lake breeze done in MKE again.  Just shot to 93F.

[Hoosier]

MDW is 1 degree behind my preferred pace for reaching 100.  Noon temp 94

[hardypalmguy]

52 minutes ago, Scorpion said:

Feels like brutal Florida summer out, been several years since I’ve felt those conditions so my body can’t handle

Once we get out of the horrible spring pattern each year, MKE has a lovely hot and humid climate.  July and August are my favorite months.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Agree…and the point for MSP is 100+ for Sunday and Monday. 

Plus by that point, that is another week with little/no rain if things go "right."   

[A-L-E-K]

idk feels fine, heat/humidity effects really are cumulative

[Scorpion]

Thinking 110 HI is attainable today.

[Chicago Storm]

MDW is on pace with STL, with both sitting at 95 now.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

MDW is on pace with STL, with both sitting at 95 now.

I expect to be sitting here ~4:30, refreshing the afternoon climate report to see if MDW reached 100 intrahour.  It would be nice to get it on an hourly ob, but I feel it will happen intrahour if it does occur.

[frostfern]

It's really unusual for these mid-upper 70s dewpoints to get into Michigan in mid-June.  That stuff usually stays down in Iowa/Illinois this time of year.  If we are already getting this humid in the middle June, I kind of dread late July.  

[Chicago Storm]

The hourly Hoosier peak temp round-up...

98 MDW

95 ORD

96 RFD

[beavis1729]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Plus by that point, that is another week with little/no rain if things go "right."   

Yep.  From MSP...interesting discussion. May be the official start of the Hoosier drought watch:

Friday through Monday... A rare and intense heat wave is appearing
likely Saturday through Monday. The late week trough will dive down
into New England and the western Atlantic while another deep trough
will reside over the West Coast, setting up an Omega pattern with
strong ridging centered along the Mississippi Valley. Model guidance
is unusually consistent at this range and thus forecast confidence is
rather high. 12Z ECMWF ensemble Extreme Forecast Index from Monday
suggests 90 percent of ensemble members exceed the 5-week centered
model climate MaxT values in parts of the Upper Midwest. In other
words, it`s already a near certainty 5 to 6 days out of near or
record breaking temperatures. Even more impressive, the Shift of
Tails (SOT) values of 1 to 2 suggest temperatures could be well above
records. It is hard to get a SOT greater than 1 for temperatures.

The NBM seems to be handling this event well already, even given the
potential rarity of it. Have made minimal or no changes to the NBM.
The heat dome begins to arrive Saturday when highs are expected to
reach well into the 90s across western MN. By Sunday, widespread
highs of 100 to 105 are forecast across MN, with 95 to 100 across WI.
Shockingly, the NBM 5th percentile is forecasting highs around 100
across west central MN. In other words, 95 percent of the guidance
that makes up the NBM is forecasting 100+ degrees. I cannot remember
a time I`ve seen such high confidence of record/near record
temperatures in this area on day 5.

[Brian D]

12 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Yep.  From MSP...interesting discussion. May be the official start of the Hoosier drought watch:

Friday through Monday... A rare and intense heat wave is appearing
likely Saturday through Monday. The late week trough will dive down
into New England and the western Atlantic while another deep trough
will reside over the West Coast, setting up an Omega pattern with
strong ridging centered along the Mississippi Valley. Model guidance
is unusually consistent at this range and thus forecast confidence is
rather high. 12Z ECMWF ensemble Extreme Forecast Index from Monday
suggests 90 percent of ensemble members exceed the 5-week centered
model climate MaxT values in parts of the Upper Midwest. In other
words, it`s already a near certainty 5 to 6 days out of near or
record breaking temperatures. Even more impressive, the Shift of
Tails (SOT) values of 1 to 2 suggest temperatures could be well above
records. It is hard to get a SOT greater than 1 for temperatures.

The NBM seems to be handling this event well already, even given the
potential rarity of it. Have made minimal or no changes to the NBM.
The heat dome begins to arrive Saturday when highs are expected to
reach well into the 90s across western MN. By Sunday, widespread
highs of 100 to 105 are forecast across MN, with 95 to 100 across WI.
Shockingly, the NBM 5th percentile is forecasting highs around 100
across west central MN. In other words, 95 percent of the guidance
that makes up the NBM is forecasting 100+ degrees. I cannot remember
a time I`ve seen such high confidence of record/near record
temperatures in this area on day 5.

Going to miss that here as Lake Superior will keep the heat in check. Still rather toasty further west and especially south of me. Even today has some rather hot weather away from the lake, and again to the south. The lake is still pretty cool after that harsh winter we had, so it's helping. Natural A/C.

[Hoosier]

2 pm

ORD 96

MDW 98

I wanted 98 at MDW at 2 pm... so far so good.

[Hoosier]

19 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Yep.  From MSP...interesting discussion. May be the official start of the Hoosier drought watch:

Friday through Monday... A rare and intense heat wave is appearing
likely Saturday through Monday. The late week trough will dive down
into New England and the western Atlantic while another deep trough
will reside over the West Coast, setting up an Omega pattern with
strong ridging centered along the Mississippi Valley. Model guidance
is unusually consistent at this range and thus forecast confidence is
rather high. 12Z ECMWF ensemble Extreme Forecast Index from Monday
suggests 90 percent of ensemble members exceed the 5-week centered
model climate MaxT values in parts of the Upper Midwest. In other
words, it`s already a near certainty 5 to 6 days out of near or
record breaking temperatures. Even more impressive, the Shift of
Tails (SOT) values of 1 to 2 suggest temperatures could be well above
records. It is hard to get a SOT greater than 1 for temperatures.

The NBM seems to be handling this event well already, even given the
potential rarity of it. Have made minimal or no changes to the NBM.
The heat dome begins to arrive Saturday when highs are expected to
reach well into the 90s across western MN. By Sunday, widespread
highs of 100 to 105 are forecast across MN, with 95 to 100 across WI.
Shockingly, the NBM 5th percentile is forecasting highs around 100
across west central MN. In other words, 95 percent of the guidance
that makes up the NBM is forecasting 100+ degrees. I cannot remember
a time I`ve seen such high confidence of record/near record
temperatures in this area on day 5.

I don't know what the hell shift of tails is, but good stuff.

[Chicago Storm]

32 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The hourly Hoosier peak temp round-up...

98 MDW

95 ORD

96 RFD

The hourly Hoosier peak temp round-up...

98 MDW

96 ORD

97 RFD