Stormlover74 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8, 2022 Author Share Posted June 8, 2022 Thursday looks like a repeat of a few weeks ago when the NAM tried to take the MCS north of us. All the other guidance was further south across our area. So it’s no surprise that we get a nice round of morning convection on the HRRR and RGEM. Maybe we can sneak in a few afternoon 80s with enough clearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 This went from a big rain event to a nuisance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 our good luck charm has spoken 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Nam seems to be all on its own in the drier camp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Nam seems to be all on its own in the drier camp we should see a good arc of convection with the warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 So much for a rainy day today...bluebird skies and 81 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 First gross humidity day of I’m sure many this summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: So much for a rainy day today...bluebird skies and 81 degrees didn't models give up on that idea days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Just now, forkyfork said: didn't models give up on that idea days ago? As of last night, Upton was calling for all day rain and showers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8, 2022 Author Share Posted June 8, 2022 13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam seems to be all on its own in the drier camp The RGEM just got a big upgrade in December 2021 while the NAM development was frozen in 2017. NAM development was frozen after the March 2017 upgrade, and RAP/HRRR development with the WRF-ARW model will cease after the RAPv5/HRRRv4 upgrade in 2020. However, operational execution of these modeling and associated DA systems will continue until comparable FV3-based systems are able to give similar performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 20 minutes ago, psv88 said: As of last night, Upton was calling for all day rain and showers. huh? WEDNESDAY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 80. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 this thread is brutal, it was suppose to be cloudy and damp in the early morning and then turn into a nice day, which it has. dont know where the hell others thought it was suppose to rain all day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 57 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: this thread is brutal, it was suppose to be cloudy and damp in the early morning and then turn into a nice day, which it has. dont know where the hell others thought it was suppose to rain all day People hear what they want to hear-summer is no exception lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 All you had to do was look at the radar when you woke up and see that there wasn’t going to be much rain today… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 I saw the point and click…what it forecasted for Suffolk was not this… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8, 2022 Author Share Posted June 8, 2022 26 minutes ago, psv88 said: I saw the point and click…what it forecasted for Suffolk was not this… While I usually don’t look at the point and clicks, the Euro forecast from yesterday had sunny and 80s for today. 12z Euro Tuesday forecast for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 54 minutes ago, bluewave said: While I usually don’t look at the point and clicks, the Euro forecast from yesterday had sunny and 80s for today. 12z Euro Tuesday forecast for today Didnt see that. currently sunny and 86 in the shade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 The weather will remain fairly unsettled into at least the first half of the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will return and continue into tomorrow morning. Parts of the region could pick up 0.50"-1.50" of rain with some locally higher amounts. Overall, temperatures should remain fairly close to normal. No excessive heat appears likely through the weekend. Excessive heat will develop in the desert Southwest by tomorrow. Phoenix will very likely see its first 110° or above temperatures of the year. During 1961-90, Phoenix averaged 15.9 110°+ days per year. For the 1991-20 base period, that number has increased to 20.8 days. During the closing week of May, the MJO moved through Phase 6 with an amplitude as high as 1.909. The only case with an MJO passage through Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during that timeframe was 1998. In 1998, the second half of June was noticeably warmer than the first half. The MJO's ongoing progression and the state of Atlantic blocking could impact the outcome for the second half of June. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around June 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +16.17 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.209 today. On June 6 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.858 (RMM). The June 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.945 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.7° (0.7° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 85 degree high here today, didn't expect that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8, 2022 Author Share Posted June 8, 2022 Strongest heat remains to our west through the solstice on the 12z EPS. So we’ll probably have to wait until late June or July for our first official heatwave with 3 days or more in a row reaching 90°. Last June we had our first heatwave from the 5th to the 9th. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2021-06-05 95 2021-06-06 97 2021-06-07 95 2021-06-08 93 2021-06-09 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 Marginal risk for severe was expanded in the nyc area for tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 The first heatwave this summer IMO could wait until mid July and we could still end up with over 20 90+ days. In the current pattern we'd only likely get a day or two of heat at the most during June and much of the latest guidance isn't even particularly favorable about that. But I do think we'll probably squeeze out a day or two of 90 in June. But a heatwave before the second week of July at this point just doesn't seem very likely. Of course things can change and the maps (ensembles and operationals) have been changing erratically and will probably continue to do so. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 Whoa. Huge cluster of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 boom! woke me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 9, 2022 Author Share Posted June 9, 2022 Strong thunderstorms moving through with some severe warnings down around Monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 Morning thoughts… Rain and thunderstorms will come to an end this morning. the sun will return afterward. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 80° Newark: 85° Philadelphia: 84° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and pleasant. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 77.8°; 15-Year: 77.8° Newark: 30-Year: 79.8°; 15-Year: 80.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 81.3°; 15-Year: 81.6° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 1" so far and it looks like it's nearly over here. Lotsa rain and no wind, could've been worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 73degs.(64/81) or +1. Reached 85 here yesterday. Today: 76-81, wind w. and breezy,clearing skies, 63 tomorrow AM. 70*(97%RH) here at 7am.{TS 5am-6am) 77* at Noon. 80* at 2pm. Reached 83* at 6pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 Picked up about 0.9” of rain from the storms this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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