LibertyBell Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 10 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: NYC can still have a very hot summer even without ANY 90 degree days in June. Two cases in point, 1955, and 1977. WX/PT 1980 is a case in point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 4, 2022 Author Share Posted June 4, 2022 9 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said: Isn't 1955 the record holder for 95 degree days though? We can’t compare pre 1990s heat records in NYC to the current ones due to the extensive tree growth artificially lowering high temperature records. The summer of 1955 was 5th highest at Newark for 95° days. It ranked 12th highest for total number of 90° days. It was only 18th warmest for mean maximum temperature at Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 1993 25 0 2 2010 21 0 3 1988 20 0 - 1944 20 0 4 2021 18 0 5 2012 17 0 - 2011 17 0 - 2002 17 0 - 1955 17 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0 11 2012 33 0 - 1999 33 0 - 1995 33 0 - 1966 33 0 12 1955 32 0 - 1953 32 0 - 1943 32 - - - Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1993 88.8 0 2 2010 87.9 0 3 1994 87.6 0 4 2021 87.3 0 5 2011 87.0 0 - 1988 87.0 0 6 1966 86.8 0 7 2016 86.6 0 - 1949 86.6 0 8 2020 86.5 0 9 2005 86.3 0 - 1944 86.3 0 10 1999 86.1 0 - 1995 86.1 0 - 1991 86.1 0 11 1983 86.0 0 12 2012 85.9 0 13 2002 85.8 0 14 2008 85.4 0 - 1987 85.4 0 - 1943 85.4 0 15 1973 85.3 0 16 2018 85.2 0 - 2015 85.2 0 17 2019 85.0 0 - 1953 85.0 0 18 2006 84.9 0 - 1952 84.9 0 19 1955 84.8 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(63/81) or +1. Reached 71 here yesterday. Today: 74-79, wind n. to w., m.clear, 60 by tomorrow AM. No 90's till at least mid-month outlook continues. 65*(66%RH) at 7am. 70* at Noon. Reached 73* at 7pm. 70* at 10pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 4, 2022 Author Share Posted June 4, 2022 This year continues the big weather swings theme. Record warmth in December was followed by our coldest January in several winters. Then a warm up in February into March with record high temperatures and an early bloom. Followed by the late March hard freeze. Then we experienced a record Northeast ridge in May which was replaced by a trough into mid-June. So it’s hard to look at past analogs for clues to the future since these current patterns are more extreme. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 81° Newark: 85° Philadelphia: 86° Fair weather with near seasonable temperatures will continue into early next week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 76.3°; 15-Year: 76.5° Newark: 30-Year: 78.1°; 15-Year: 78.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 79.7°; 15-Year: 80.2° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: and a lot of tropical activity. July 1955 set the average monthly temp record at NYC until July 2010 came along At Central Park, July 1999 (81.4) is the warmest month. 2010 was 81.3, but the actual figure was likely higher due to the trees shading the instruments. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: For JFK it's 2010 bar none..... 10 days of 95+ and 3 days of 100+ Is that the record year for the other airports too? No. They are all over the place. Most 95-degree readings: Bridgeport: 8, 1949 Islip: 7, 1999 New York City-JFK: 10, 2010 New York City-LGA: 14, 1955 New York City-NYC: 16, 1955 Newark: 25, 1993 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 Looking ahead : WC ridge builds and holds the next 12 days, with trough into the MW/GL and EC through Thu 6/16 . Lack of heat till father day weekend / beyond. T The current weekend (6/4-5) through Tue (6/7) is a home run. Low humidity, loads of sunshine and temps near 80. Wed (6/8) into next weekend (6/10-11) a bit unsettled and we are likely to see increased rain / storm chances. #rd straight great weekend (overall) is a nice change. Beyond: WC ridge holds and some hints of it breaking down and heights pushing into the EC by 6/16. Next 13 days near normal but do think we have a period of some gloomier/wetter weather later next week into the weekend. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 Current 76/50 here and gorgeous. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: Current 76/50 here and gorgeous. Is it possible reconstruct a page which links multiple radar, satellite, temperature, precip maps like you did years ago? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 Abundant sunshine and close to seasonable temperatures will prevail through at least early next week. Tomorrow will likely be the coolest day. No excessive heat appears likely through at least most of next week. Excessive heat is likely to develop in the desert Southwest late next week. Phoenix will likely see its first 110° or above temperatures of the year. During the closing week of May, the MJO moved through Phase 6 with an amplitude as high as 1.909. The only case with an MJO passage through Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during that timeframe was 1998. In 1998, the second half of June was noticeably warmer than the first half. The MJO's ongoing progression and the state of Atlantic blocking could impact the outcome for the second half of June. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around May 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +12.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.390 today. The old daily record was -1.919, which was set in 1984. On June 2 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.992 (RMM). The June 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.915 (RMM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 Beautiful day at the Stadium. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 6/4 : Amazing day EWR: 87 PHL: 86 New Brnswck: 84 TTN: 82 TEB: 82 LGA: 81ACY: 81 NYC: 80 BLM: 79 JFK: 75 ISP: 72 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 8 hours ago, Dark Star said: Is it possible reconstruct a page which links multiple radar, satellite, temperature, precip maps like you did years ago? I have tried but most links have moved away from animated GIFs. Still working on it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: No. They are all over the place. Most 95-degree readings: Bridgeport: 8, 1949 Islip: 7, 1999 New York City-JFK: 10, 2010 New York City-LGA: 14, 1955 New York City-NYC: 16, 1955 Newark: 25, 1993 Weird.... one thing all those summers have in common is that they all had multiple 100+ degree days at the NYC airports? Newark having 25 days of 95+ and 10 days of 100+ in 1993 if I remember correctly is absolutely mindboggling. They had 5 in a row in July, while we had 3 in the city. That still remains the greatest heatwave of my entire life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: At Central Park, July 1999 (81.4) is the warmest month. 2010 was 81.3, but the actual figure was likely higher due to the trees shading the instruments. Oh that's a shame, I think the airports all had July 2010 as the hottest. I remember July 1999 and that was extremely hot too (20 90 degree days that month, to tie July 1993 if I remember correctly), but July 2010 was a tick hotter than that. Did July 1955 hold the record before July 1999? I love these 11 year summers, it's too bad the pattern didn't hold last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 17 hours ago, bluewave said: We can’t compare pre 1990s heat records in NYC to the current ones due to the extensive tree growth artificially lowering high temperature records. The summer of 1955 was 5th highest at Newark for 95° days. It ranked 12th highest for total number of 90° days. It was only 18th warmest for mean maximum temperature at Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 1993 25 0 2 2010 21 0 3 1988 20 0 - 1944 20 0 4 2021 18 0 5 2012 17 0 - 2011 17 0 - 2002 17 0 - 1955 17 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0 11 2012 33 0 - 1999 33 0 - 1995 33 0 - 1966 33 0 12 1955 32 0 - 1953 32 0 - 1943 32 - - - Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1993 88.8 0 2 2010 87.9 0 3 1994 87.6 0 4 2021 87.3 0 5 2011 87.0 0 - 1988 87.0 0 6 1966 86.8 0 7 2016 86.6 0 - 1949 86.6 0 8 2020 86.5 0 9 2005 86.3 0 - 1944 86.3 0 10 1999 86.1 0 - 1995 86.1 0 - 1991 86.1 0 11 1983 86.0 0 12 2012 85.9 0 13 2002 85.8 0 14 2008 85.4 0 - 1987 85.4 0 - 1943 85.4 0 15 1973 85.3 0 16 2018 85.2 0 - 2015 85.2 0 17 2019 85.0 0 - 1953 85.0 0 18 2006 84.9 0 - 1952 84.9 0 19 1955 84.8 0 I love this because EWR clearly matches up closer to JFK than the heat island of LGA does. 1993, 2002 and 2010 are the hottest summers in my memory too. Going with pre 1990s heat, 1983 was the first summer that matches what we have going on now, do you agree, Chris? That was both extremely hot and extremely humid. Also, going even further back, what was going on in 1944? That was such an amazingly hot summer, seems really out of place back in the 1940s. It was an 11 year summer, which could of course be the reason. I wish I could experience that. And 1966. Those would be my two favorite summers to experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Sometime between June 14th-18th it's looking as though it's going to get to be at least quite warm, maybe hot. But it appears there'll be a very active ROF at the leading of this hot air mass and any kind of wave of low pressure development or stronger upper air disturbance moving over and down around the big ridge can delay the eastward progression of the heat ridge. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 71degs.(63/80) or -1. Reached 73 here yesterday. Today: 72-76, wind variable, m. sunny, 61 tomorrow AM. EURO fails at 80 degrees for the next 10 days and has heavy rain Thursday. GFS wants to celebrate the start of summer in the 100's. 63*(45%RH) here at 7am. Reached 76* at 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 -NAO's have correlated with hot weather, very strongly now for 3+ years. The correlation is getting stronger. When I see +NAO on long range models, I think cool/damp/cloudy, -NAO is clear skies, 98* on June 1st is an example. It at least feels nicer/warmer than the actual temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 5, 2022 Author Share Posted June 5, 2022 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I love this because EWR clearly matches up closer to JFK than the heat island of LGA does. 1993, 2002 and 2010 are the hottest summers in my memory too. Going with pre 1990s heat, 1983 was the first summer that matches what we have going on now, do you agree, Chris? That was both extremely hot and extremely humid. Also, going even further back, what was going on in 1944? That was such an amazingly hot summer, seems really out of place back in the 1940s. It was an 11 year summer, which could of course be the reason. I wish I could experience that. And 1966. Those would be my two favorite summers to experience. 2010 was in a class by itself for record heat. JFK had double the number of 90° it had in 1955. While 1993 was a record hot summer around Newark, it was much cooler at JFK. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 32 0 2 1983 26 0 3 2002 21 0 4 1971 18 0 - 1949 18 0 5 2005 17 0 - 1991 17 0 6 2012 16 0 - 1959 16 3 - 1955 16 2 7 2016 15 0 - 1995 15 0 - 1961 15 0 8 1999 14 0 - 1988 14 0 - 1966 14 0 - 1952 14 0 9 2011 13 0 - 1993 13 0 - 1984 13 0 - 1977 13 0 - 1970 13 0 - 1969 13 0 - 1963 13 0 10 2020 12 0 - 2015 12 0 - 2006 12 0 - 2003 12 0 - 1978 12 0 - 1968 12 0 - 1953 12 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Here's your 98* day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 5, 2022 Author Share Posted June 5, 2022 19 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Here's your 98* day We have warm and cool -AO patterns. The record warmth at end of May linked up with the SE Ridge. So it was more a south based block like the winter of 2021. The record -AO has been undercut by a cooler trough in early June. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 76° Newark: 81° Philadelphia: 82° Fair weather with near seasonable temperatures will continue through tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 76.6°; 15-Year: 76.7° Newark: 30-Year: 78.4°; 15-Year: 78.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 80.1°; 15-Year: 80.4° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 On 6/3/2022 at 7:18 AM, Allsnow said: Don’t tell @winterwarlock Shh don't tell anyone about a beautiful 4 day stretch of early summer with highs around 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 7 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Sometime between June 14th-18th it's looking as though it's going to get to be at least quite warm, maybe hot. But it appears there'll be a very active ROF at the leading of this hot air mass and any kind of wave of low pressure development or stronger upper air disturbance moving over and down around the big ridge can delay the eastward progression of the heat ridge. WX/PT ROF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 59 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: ROF? Ring Of Fire aka thunderstorms around the ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Just now, bluewave said: We have warm and cool -AO patterns. The record warmth at end of May linked up with the SE Ridge. So it was more a south based block like the winter of 2021. The record -AO has been undercut by a cooler trough in early June. Really an anomaly, Pacific is cold+PDO, -epo and +PNA there is this though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 5, 2022 Author Share Posted June 5, 2022 The Euro seasonal has a drought feedback ridge to our west this summer. Keeps a stalled out frontal zone along the East Coast. Deep tropical moisture feed through our area with plenty of rain and high dewpoints. Very active hurricane season for the Atlantic with near 20 named storms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro seasonal has a drought feedback ridge to our west this summer. Keeps a stalled out frontal zone along the East Coast. Deep tropical moisture feed through our area with plenty of rain and high dewpoints. Very active hurricane season for the Atlantic with near 20 named storms. we don't get typical summer patterns anymore so i don't know what to expect. last summer's double ridges on both coasts was astonishing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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