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June 2022


bluewave
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Another heavy downpour here in SW Suffolk. So the first two days of a June produced heavy downpours. The blocking and Great Lakes trough continues for the next few weeks on the EPS. So more chances for convection from time to time.
 

1C309382-5065-4329-868E-1A9277EB2539.thumb.png.97663654afb4c9b501b245080aa1e62b.png
CBA7ABC0-83C6-4EBA-9BE7-882215A421FB.thumb.png.b6f6935ab36a578b7e7377dc4c248a61.png

5CEC3C0E-CA23-4156-962B-746B78F83A45.thumb.png.5c91c9c8edd4cb98b8eae86f0a59fc04.png

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A cold front triggered heavy thunderstorms this evening producing highway flooding in parts of the New York City area and Westchester County. A few more showers and thundershowers are possible overnight into tomorrow morning. Afterward, a period of more seasonable temperatures will follow.

During the closing week of May, the MJO moved through Phase 6 with an amplitude as high as 1.909. The only case with an MJO passage through Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during that timeframe was 1998. In 1998, the second half of June was noticeably warmer than the first half. The MJO's ongoing progression and the state of Atlantic blocking could impact the outcome for the second half of June.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around May 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was -13.57 today. That was the second consecutive day on which the SOI was below 0. The last time that happened was during February 13-16 when the SOI was negative for four consecutive days.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.646 today. The old daily record was -1.652 from 1993.

On May 31 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.910 (RMM). The May 30-adjusted amplitude was 2.033 (RMM).

 

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13 hours ago, bluewave said:

Another heavy downpour here in SW Suffolk. So the first two days of a June produced heavy downpours. The blocking and Great Lakes trough continues for the next few weeks on the EPS. Some hints of a slow moving closed low as we head into mid-June.  So several more opportunities for heavy convection at times. 
 

1C309382-5065-4329-868E-1A9277EB2539.thumb.png.97663654afb4c9b501b245080aa1e62b.png
CBA7ABC0-83C6-4EBA-9BE7-882215A421FB.thumb.png.b6f6935ab36a578b7e7377dc4c248a61.png

5CEC3C0E-CA23-4156-962B-746B78F83A45.thumb.png.5c91c9c8edd4cb98b8eae86f0a59fc04.png

Don’t tell @winterwarlock

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Morning thoughts…

Clouds, showers, and mist will give way to increasing sunshine. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°

Newark: 81°

Philadelphia: 83°

Fair weather with near seasonable temperatures will continue into early next week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 76.0°; 15-Year: 76.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 77.8°; 15-Year: 78.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 79.4°; 15-Year: 79.9°

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The next 8 days are averaging  73degs.(64/82) or +2.

Reached 76 here yesterday.

Today: 72-77, wind variable e. to nw, cloudy early, then improving, 62 tomorrow AM.

Still no 90's till mid-month.

65*(99%RH) here at 7am. FOG, about 1mi.        67* at 9am, same FOG.        66* at Noon, same FOG.       68* at 2pm, Fog Lifting?         69*/70* at 3pm, 4pm, fog mostly lifted.

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We are shifting the persistent June over the top warm  pattern of the last 5 years. The record heat in the Upper Plains to Great Lakes is getting replaced by a cooler trough. So lower chances of  any extended 90° heat for a while. 


3ED17366-C701-43A4-B200-470041A6424D.png.4afce3d8164474ba9699b9a5fafe451a.png

 

F9E0429B-1D46-475D-A933-051BBF19BC0F.thumb.png.500ae441ef91952bc2cf3e31a4ddb847.png

67107D3C-4DD6-4299-A336-73B936460753.thumb.png.c1540c6662f0d0551243ab8661e8f07f.png

864661EA-E3EE-4896-93FE-5631EC60420F.thumb.png.e7a45145b659cb95f2d4b65e8911f347.png

 

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Looking like a gorgeous weekend (Fri 63 - tue 6/7) and start of early work week, before some unsettled weather arrives by mid next week and may linger.  Temps capped in the upper 70s to low 80s the next 10 days or so.  Its likely till fathers day weekend the next shot at summer heat (pegging Jun 17 as transition) / we'll see how the second half of June evolves.  

 

 

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

We are shifting the persistent June over the top warm  pattern of the last 5 years. The record heat in the Upper Plains to Great Lakes is getting replaced by a cooler trough. So lower chances of  any extended 90° heat for a while. 


3ED17366-C701-43A4-B200-470041A6424D.png.4afce3d8164474ba9699b9a5fafe451a.png

 

F9E0429B-1D46-475D-A933-051BBF19BC0F.thumb.png.500ae441ef91952bc2cf3e31a4ddb847.png

67107D3C-4DD6-4299-A336-73B936460753.thumb.png.c1540c6662f0d0551243ab8661e8f07f.png

864661EA-E3EE-4896-93FE-5631EC60420F.thumb.png.e7a45145b659cb95f2d4b65e8911f347.png

 

NYC can still have a very hot summer even without ANY 90 degree days in June. Two cases in point, 1955, and 1977.  

WX/PT

 

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51 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

NYC can still have a very hot summer even without ANY 90 degree days in June. Two cases in point, 1955, and 1977.  

WX/PT

 

The 1955 and 1977 summers weren’t really that hot compared to recent standards. But the 1955 was much warmer than 1977. The summer of 1977 was mostly remembered for the famous 9 day heatwave in mid-July. JJA 1977 only finished +0.6 relative to that cooler era. 

12920BDD-385F-44D1-9D8C-E187E81A4C8B.thumb.jpeg.f8c7bf088caaaa55531d9a58cd9c1ad5.jpeg

CEC006AE-6389-4343-A294-C289EF275684.thumb.jpeg.ffd6875e436620aaf319e2fe559049c2.jpeg

 

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The weekend into early next week will feature abundant sunshine and close to seasonable temperatures. Sunday will likely be the coolest day. No excessive heat appears likely through at least most of next week.

During the closing week of May, the MJO moved through Phase 6 with an amplitude as high as 1.909. The only case with an MJO passage through Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during that timeframe was 1998. In 1998, the second half of June was noticeably warmer than the first half. The MJO's ongoing progression and the state of Atlantic blocking could impact the outcome for the second half of June.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around May 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +1.62 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.756 today. The previous daily record low was -1.770, which was set in 1985.

On June 1 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.913 (RMM). The May 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.912 (RMM).

 

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4 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

NYC can still have a very hot summer even without ANY 90 degree days in June. Two cases in point, 1955, and 1977.  

WX/PT

 

some NYC heat records...

Hottest weeks...1977 is tied for the hottest week but had the highest ave max...1955 had two hot weeks on this list...

high low mean max ..

98.0 76.9 87.4 102 7/07-7/13 1993

98.4 76.3 87.4 104 7/15-7/21 1977

98.3 76.0 87.1 102 8/29-9/04 1953

95.1 78.9 87.0 .98. 8/05-8/11 1896

95.7 77.9 86.8 104 7/18-7/24 2011

94.6 79.0 86.8 .98. 7/14-7/20 2013

95.3 78.0 86.7 .99. 8/09-8/15 1988

96.6 75.1 85.9 102 8/11-8/17 1944

96.1 75.2 85.7 100 8/01-8/07 1955

95.3 75.9 85.6 103 8/04-8/10 2001

94.9 76.1 85.5 102 7/16-7/22 1980

97.3 73.6 85.4 102 7/17-7/23 1991

95.7 75.1 85.4 .98. 8/28-9/03 1973

94.1 76.7 85.4 .96. 7/12-7/18 1981

94.3 76.4 85.4 103 7/04-7/10 2010

95.4 75.1 85.3 100 7/17-7/23 1955

 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 1955 and 1977 summers weren’t really that hot compared to recent standards. But the 1955 was much warmer than 1977. The summer of 1977 was mostly remembered for the famous 9 day heatwave in mid-July. JJA 1977 only finished +0.6 relative to that cooler era. 

12920BDD-385F-44D1-9D8C-E187E81A4C8B.thumb.jpeg.f8c7bf088caaaa55531d9a58cd9c1ad5.jpeg

CEC006AE-6389-4343-A294-C289EF275684.thumb.jpeg.ffd6875e436620aaf319e2fe559049c2.jpeg

 

Isn't 1955 the record holder for 95 degree days though? 

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This is fantasy range for the GFS but it may worth noting that this heat was gone on 3 out of the last 4 runs of the model. Let's wait a few more days before believing this kind of thing. If it's right, we will have 90+ days during the middle of June.

WX/PT

gfs_z500_mslp_us_51.png

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On 6/2/2022 at 5:53 PM, bluewave said:

Another heavy downpour here in SW Suffolk. So the first two days of a June produced heavy downpours. The blocking and Great Lakes trough continues for the next few weeks on the EPS. So more chances for convection from time to time.
 

1C309382-5065-4329-868E-1A9277EB2539.thumb.png.97663654afb4c9b501b245080aa1e62b.png
CBA7ABC0-83C6-4EBA-9BE7-882215A421FB.thumb.png.b6f6935ab36a578b7e7377dc4c248a61.png

5CEC3C0E-CA23-4156-962B-746B78F83A45.thumb.png.5c91c9c8edd4cb98b8eae86f0a59fc04.png

It makes it very yucky and humid, Friday was disappointing, not much sun at all, I guess that was  a bust.

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 1955 and 1977 summers weren’t really that hot compared to recent standards. But the 1955 was much warmer than 1977. The summer of 1977 was mostly remembered for the famous 9 day heatwave in mid-July. JJA 1977 only finished +0.6 relative to that cooler era. 

12920BDD-385F-44D1-9D8C-E187E81A4C8B.thumb.jpeg.f8c7bf088caaaa55531d9a58cd9c1ad5.jpeg

CEC006AE-6389-4343-A294-C289EF275684.thumb.jpeg.ffd6875e436620aaf319e2fe559049c2.jpeg

 

1977 had authentic blazing heat though, rather than just high min days

 

The good old 11 year pattern!

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