June 2022

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Excessive precip and tropical systems  are definitely on the horizon. We are loosing that cool water buffer more and more. Those strong SW flow heat events actually do more to upwell cool water. It’s the constant onshore flow that allows out coastal water temps to soar. 

those westerly flows of heat are like heaven, I wish the entire summer was like that

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

The extended EPS for the start of July looks similar to the July forecast issued on June 5th. Rockies ridge with another ridge east of New England. If this pattern verifies, then the strongest heat in July relative to the means will be to our west. 
 

July Euro forecast issued on June 5th

 

It makes sense that unless we get strong westerly winds the greatest heat will always be to our west as our extremes will always be modified by the ocean.

But doesn't it look to you like the extreme heat is migrating eastward (along with the drought)?  Last summer it was in the NW, this summer it's in the middle of the country, maybe our turn will come next summer?

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Yes, for NYC, September had the hottest day in 1953 (2nd 102F), 1881 (7th 101F), 1929 (3rd, 99F), 1983 (11th, 99F), 1931 (11th, 99F, tied with 7th Aug), 1895 (23rd 97F), 2015 (8th 97F), 1921 (3rd 96F), 1932 (2nd 96F), 1914 (22nd 95F, tied with 27th May), 1915 (9th, 94F), 1897 (10th 93F tied with 6th July), 1970 (22nd 94F), 2014 (2nd 92F), also 1927 (15th 92F tied with four other days all in July, and it was also 90F on Oct 2nd 1927), and 1884 (91F 8th and 9th tied with 21st June and 20th Aug). 

So that was 16 of 153 years so far with at least a tie of the summer maximum in September. I listed them in order of their temperatures. The latest date was the 23rd in 1895, that year had a four-day heat wave May 31 to June 3 with 96F highs. This year NYC hit 93F on May 31, the  second hottest reading since that record value from 1895 was tied in 1939. It was 94F in 1987 and that year's eventual maximum was 97F from the previous day (May 30th). 

 

 

 

Don't forget September 1983 which featured 5 90+ days including a 99 on the 11th and a 95 on the 24rd.

 

[bluewave]

55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It makes sense that unless we get strong westerly winds the greatest heat will always be to our west as our extremes will always be modified by the ocean.

But doesn't it look to you like the extreme heat is migrating eastward (along with the drought)?  Last summer it was in the NW, this summer it's in the middle of the country, maybe our turn will come next summer?

 

This is a different type of June pattern than we have seen in recent years. The heat ridges to our west have usually come east. This June we have the strong blocking pushing back against the heat dome. Most years the blocking is too weak in the summer to challenge the ridge to our west. So it will be interesting to see if the CFS is correct about the blocking continuing into next winter.

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is a different type of June pattern than we have seen in recent years. The heat ridges to our west have usually come east. This June we have the strong blocking pushing back against the heat dome. Most years the blocking is too weak in the summer to challenge the ridge to our west. So it will be interesting to see if the CFS is correct about the blocking continuing into next winter.

 

 

 

That would be an amazingly long time for this blocking to persist wouldn't it, Chris?  What brought on this historic blocking?  We never had a real SSW.  Also do you think the models err on the side of persistence and it's much more likely that we flip back to a lack of blocking just in time for winter?

 

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don't forget September 1983 which featured 5 90+ days including a 99 on the 11th and a 95 on the 24rd.

 

That was the most unpleasant (and thankfully the last) September of my 13 year public school incarceration. I was so happy to be out by 1pm 4 days a week. 

[FPizz]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That would be an amazingly long time for this blocking to persist wouldn't it, Chris?  What brought on this historic blocking?  We never had a real SSW.  Also do you think the models err on the side of persistence and it's much more likely that we flip back to a lack of blocking just in time for winter?

 

Hunga Tonga

[uncle W]

The late September heat wave of 1970 was brutal…5 straight days 89 or better spilling over to the first days of fall…94 for the max…

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That would be an amazingly long time for this blocking to persist wouldn't it, Chris?  What brought on this historic blocking?  We never had a real SSW.  Also do you think the models err on the side of persistence and it's much more likely that we flip back to a lack of blocking just in time for winter?

 

The blocking started with the final stratospheric warming in late March. Sometimes once blocking becomes established, it just keeps going. But the strength of this blocking is unusual for June. Notice how strong the blocking is this month NE of Hudson Bay. So it will be interesting to see how long it can persist. 
 

Blocking since March 25th

Blocking  since June 1st

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[forkyfork]

this is the weirdest looking heavy rain event i've seen

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Hunga Tonga

Recently upgraded to a high VEI 5 to potentially a 6, it’s about at the size where a real climate impact is possible. 
 

However, it only released a fraction of the sulphur load into the stratosphere that Pinatubo did, as most of it apparently leached / reacted into the ocean instead. 
 

Still, there are more volcanic particulates involved and there have been documented volcanic sunsets around the globe including in the northern hemisphere. It’s just odd that normally an eruption of this size, AFAIK, generally keeps its effects within the same hemisphere. Perhaps because the column reached, absurdly, into the mesosphere? 
 

A geophysicist/volcanologist I follow believes it will / and is currently impacting the climate system. I’m curious to see if anything is ultimately linked to it. Pinatubo caused a significant impact for the following several years in the early - mid 1990’s but was far more sulphur rich. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

That was the most unpleasant (and thankfully the last) September of my 13 year public school incarceration. I was so happy to be out by 1pm 4 days a week. 

It makes you wish for school starting in October lol.  We never saw a September that hot after that.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Recently upgraded to a high VEI 5 to potentially a 6, it’s about at the size where a real climate impact is possible. 
 

However, it only released a fraction of the sulphur load into the stratosphere that Pinatubo did, as most of it apparently leached / reacted into the ocean instead. 
 

Still, there are more volcanic particulates involved and there have been documented volcanic sunsets around the globe including in the northern hemisphere. It’s just odd that normally an eruption of this size, AFAIK, generally keeps its effects within the same hemisphere. Perhaps because the column reached, absurdly, into the mesosphere? 
 

A geophysicist/volcanologist I follow believes it will / and is currently impacting the climate system. I’m curious to see if anything is ultimately linked to it. Pinatubo caused a significant impact for the following several years in the early - mid 1990’s but was far more sulphur rich. 

Meanwhile though, the center of the country is baking as is most of Europe and even parts of Southern Asia.

[bluewave]

Really unusual for the jet to be blowing this strong out of the north this time of year. It’s near a record according to the NEEFS. So this is why the convection is dropping SSE out of Canada. 
 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Wow, CFS is good but variable. It's accuracy might be a product of money and energy traders baselining around it. I see it as outdated. 

[uncle W]

September 1961 was the worst...many days in school above 90 with no ac...

[David-LI]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

this is the weirdest looking heavy rain event i've seen

Is a lot of lightning expected?

[brooklynwx99]

things will become a lot more moist heading into tropical season. the analogs are screaming another very wet summer with slightly above average temps

the pattern should be conducive for EC landfalls and we should see a lot of 90/70 type days towards late July - early September

[uncle W]

Second year La Niña or negative years heading towards another were…

1956…1975…1985…2000…2012…2012 was the warmest…the other summers  were cool…

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Wow, CFS is good but variable. It's accuracy might be a product of money and energy traders baselining around it. I see it as outdated. 

The seasonal models are often low skill especially for the winter.  Long range MJO and SPV forecasts get really difficult beyond week 2 during the winter. But the seasonal models  seem to have better skill during the summer some years.  While I don’t usually look at the CFS, the big IOD reversal it’s forecasting for next winter would be fun. The forcing shifts from the Maritime Continent to west of the Dateline in the WPAC. While the forecast may be completely wrong, forcing west of dateline would support at least a strong -EPO +PNA like we had in January. The state of the AO and NAO usually is unknown until the winter actually starts. 
 

Is Maritime Continent cooling and WPAC warming next winter fact or fiction?

Current 

 

Winter forecast

 

 

 

 

 

[Brian5671]

I know it's the HRRR but it has lost the heavy rains

[forkyfork]

On 6/19/2022 at 9:48 AM, Allsnow said:

Going to need to wait until July now for a official heatwave 

low chance ewr gets one sat-mon

[Rtd208]

I am a person who usually likes hot and humid weather (90+) but these low to mid 80's temps we have been seeing have been pretty nice. I am certainly not against 85/65 degree temps during the day and night everyday.

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

low chance ewr gets one sat-mon

[bluewave]

After EWR set the June all-rime  record of 103° last year, the monthly max of 95° this June felt much cooler.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	103	0
2	2011	102	0
-	1994	102	0
-	1993	102	0
-	1952	102	0
-	1943	102	0
3	1988	101	0
-	1966	101	0
4	1959	100	0
-	1953	100	0
-	1934	100	0

[Rjay]

7 hours ago, FPizz said:

I've had them here for about a week or so

10 days or so here. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Front needs to slow down substantially for Monday to hit 90

Better odds Friday to over perform than Monday hitting it

[Nibor]

19 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Usually I'd have seen lightning bugs by now but nothing

They're out here in Queens and Brooklyn.

[gravitylover]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It makes you wish for school starting in October lol.  We never saw a September that hot after that.

The worst part was I had 3 classes in east facing rooms in the morning so it was horrible. You know the 2nd floor of the north wing of OHS, those rooms cook in the mornings and I had 2 upstairs and one downstairs. It sucked. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with showers and periods of rain. It will be unseasonably cool. The unseasonably cool weather will continue through Thursday before warmer air returns.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +18.06 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.404 today.

On June 19 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.717 (RMM). The June 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.868 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.3° (0.7° below normal).