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June 2022


bluewave
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First model guess for the start of July Is a ridge in the Rockies and Plains. Some hint of a continuing trough near New England. Also a bit of a -EPO +PNA pattern. The wild card may how much blocking verifies SE of Greenland. Stronger blocking there would keep more of a trough in New England. But a weaker block in the North Atlantic could allow a stronger WAR to link up with the ridge to our west. 

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DCCDBA69-A390-49F6-9908-087D3B3D7E3E.thumb.png.57e9eb213e38c38e6dc7c3fe97350cda.png

 

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Newark NJ record lows for the week...

6/16 52 in 1946 53 in 1933 54 in 1961
6/17 52 in 1950 52 in 1948 53 in 1965+
6/18 49 in 1950 52 in 1959 53 in 1958+
6/19 53 in 1954 54 in 1965 55 in 1956+
6/20 52 in 1956 53 in 1940 54 in 1959
6/21 46 in 1940 54 in 1968 56 in 1947
6/22 48 in 1940 52 in 1947 54 in 1992
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Newark NJ record low max for the week...

6/16 65 in 1965 65 in 1959 65 in 1954
6/17 62 in 1959 65 in 1978 66 in 2003+
6/18 64 in 1947 66 in 1932 67 in 2009+
6/19 58 in 1935 64 in 1950 67 in 1991+
6/20 62 in 1958 65 in 1946 68 in 1956
6/21 63 in 2003 66 in 1958 66 in 1952
6/22 63 in 1952 67 in 1992 68 in 2003+
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Tomorrow will be a very warm day with readings reaching the upper 80s in New York City and perhaps lower 90s in Newark and Philadelphia. Much cooler air will return for the weekend.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +16.52 today. The SOI was unchanged from yesterday. The last time that happened was December 24-25, 2020.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.056 today.

On June 14 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.587 (RMM). The June 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.338 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.2° (0.2° above normal).

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny and very warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 89°

Newark: 94°

Philadelphia: 95°

Much cooler air will arrive for the weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 80.3°; 15-Year: 80.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 82.5°; 15-Year: 82.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.8°; 15-Year: 84.0°

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While today will be one of our few 90° days this month, we have had a top 10 warmest June 1st to 15th. The new much warmer 1991-2020 climate normals really reduces the departures. In our new warmer climate, a lack of extended heat makes things feel cooler. 
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 15
Missing Count
1 2008-06-15 71.8 0
2 1999-06-15 71.7 0
3 1973-06-15 71.4 0
4 1984-06-15 71.2 0
5 2005-06-15 70.1 0
6 2021-06-15 69.1 0
7 2010-06-15 68.8 0
8 2011-06-15 68.7 0
9 2022-06-15 68.6 0
- 1991-06-15 68.6 0
10 2014-06-15 68.5 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 15
Missing Count
1 1973-06-15 76.9 0
2 1984-06-15 76.2 0
3 2008-06-15 76.1 0
4 2005-06-15 75.9 0
5 1994-06-15 75.2 0
6 2021-06-15 74.9 0
7 1999-06-15 74.5 0
8 2022-06-15 73.9 0
9 1992-06-15 73.6 0
10 2010-06-15 73.5 0
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