Stormlover74 Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i found two in queens https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=F1075&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=E9477&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL I was thinking more along the lines of cdw or mmu which are usually close I see smq and linden just hit 83 at 4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 Current temp 85/DP 58/RH 41% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: These big ridge expansions over the Plains and Great Lakes are closer to 2010-2013 than 2018-2021. Today is the warmest day in Chicago since July 2012. So maybe the Euro will be correct about that big push of heat into our area next week when the ridge amplifies again. If it’s going to happen that we push upper 90s or over 100 that’s how it happens-the drier heat builds up to the west and surges in. We need the westerly downsloping wind to really get the record challenging numbers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: If the Euro verifies for next week, then it would be the earliest in the season for 597dm+ ridge in the Southeast. the eps went in that direction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Ewr is 85 today, I can't find any other station above 82 It hit 84 here today. Felt good with the low humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: If the Euro verifies for next week, then it would be the earliest in the season for 597dm+ ridge in the Southeast. I'd be cautious buying into this given the flip flopping models have been doing though at some point I'd imagine the heat out west would get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 Tomorrow will be another partly sunny and warm day. The passage of a warm front could bring some showers or thundershowers on Thursday. Overall, the remainder of the week will generally see somewhat above normal to above normal temperatures. Intense heat moved into the Great Lakes Region today. High temperatures included: Atlanta: 95° Charleston, SC: 98° Chicago: 98° Fayetteville, NC: 100° (tied record set in 1940) Indianapolis: 93° Lexington, KY: 95° (old record: 94°, 1943 and 1988) Rockford, IL: 98° (tied record set in 1987) Savannah: 98° St. Louis: 99° (old record: 97°, 1987) Tomorrow will be another very hot day in parts of the Great Lakes Region before cooler air returns. The core of the heat will not likely move into the Northeast. As a result, New York City will likely see temperatures peak in the middle and upper 80s on Friday. Newark could reach 90°. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +20.03 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.360 today. On June 12 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.251 (RMM). The June 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.141 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.4° (0.4° above normal). 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 Haven't had much rain here in Southwest Nassau recently. The ground is drying out. Last decent rain here was on June 3rd which was around a quarter of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 35 minutes ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said: Haven't had much rain here in Southwest Nassau recently. The ground is drying out. Last decent rain here was on June 3rd which was around a quarter of an inch. Not alot of rain opportunities coming up either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 2 hours ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said: Haven't had much rain here in Southwest Nassau recently. The ground is drying out. Last decent rain here was on June 3rd which was around a quarter of an inch. Crazy, hit and miss showers. I have gotten an inch of rain in the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 7 hours ago, forkyfork said: the euro brings heat back with a vengeance Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Man the northeast is really missing out on the heat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Harbor entrance buoy briefly got over 70 today. Ocean warming slowly but steady now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 High for the day was 87 here. Current temp 70/DP 61/RH 74% 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly cloudy and warm. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 81° Newark: 86° Philadelphia: 88° Much cooler air will arrive for the weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 9 hours ago, Allsnow said: Man the northeast is really missing out on the heat That's ok. As dry as it is IMBY a real hot stretch would be bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 9 hours ago, Allsnow said: Man the northeast is really missing out on the heat Missing out? This weather has been great. The heat will inevitably get here so we should enjoy these comfortable temps while we have them. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(63/81) or slightly BN. Month to date is 70.8[+1.2]. Should be about 71.3[+0.6] by the 23rd. Reached 88 here at 7pm. yesterday(at least on my balcony) Today: 77-82, wind se., m. sunny, clouds late, 65 tomorrow AM. July 04-17 looks AN-else just so-so with no long lasting AN period. 73*(59%RH) here at 7am. 75* at 8am. 77* at 10am. Down to 74* at Noon. Reached 78* at 7pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Buffered from the strong heat the next 36 hours (6/15-6/16) before a quick fringe blast on Friday (6/17). The weekend (6/18 and 6/19) looks fantastic with sunny /dry and temps near 80 and lows in the 60s and cooler inland. Monday (6/20) will remain on the normal/cooler side before a transition to warmer / hotter by Tue (6/22). Euro brings in strong heat through the 24th/25th with further eastward expansion of the ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 17 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: I was thinking more along the lines of cdw or mmu which are usually close I see smq and linden just hit 83 at 4pm New Brnswck : 84 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 How's the weekend looking? Still temp crashing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, A Moonlit Sky said: How's the weekend looking? Still temp crashing? Weekend looks marvelous upper 70s / low 80s day and 50s/60 night. Monday too. Change to warmer and hooter coming Tuesday seems to be the progression. Still need to work out ridge axis and any storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 15, 2022 Author Share Posted June 15, 2022 19 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Buffered from the strong heat the next 36 hours (6/15-6/16) before a quick fringe blast on Friday (6/17). The weekend (6/18 and 6/19) looks fantastic with sunny /dry and temps near 80 and lows in the 60s and cooler inland. Monday (6/20) will remain on the normal/cooler side before a transition to warmer / hotter by Tue (6/22). Euro brings in strong heat through the 24th/25th with further eastward expansion of the ridge. We’ll have to see if the WAR can link up with the Plains ridge near the start of July for more extended heat than these 1 to 2 day brief surges of 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: We’ll have to see if the WAR can link up with the Plains ridge near the start of July for more extended heat than these 1 to 2 day brief surges of 90s. we're in the process of a big north atlantic pattern flip so those seeds are probably being planted 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 See that's the trough. My Saturday high still says 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 15, 2022 Author Share Posted June 15, 2022 22 minutes ago, forkyfork said: we're in the process of a big north atlantic pattern flip so those seeds are probably being planted That’s what we would expect to happen with the typical La Niña June to July progression. The rough composites have more of an omega pattern in June. The WAR flexes as we move into July. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: Weekend looks marvelous upper 70s / low 80s day and 50s/60 night. Monday too. Change to warmer and hooter coming Tuesday seems to be the progression. Still need to work out ridge axis and any storms. Looks like another one hit wonder for heat next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 GFS first sniffed out the cooldown this weekend a week ago. I do think some cold places will see lows in the 40s but the gfs now keeps us in the 60s all day which I still remain skeptical of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 59 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like another one hit wonder for heat next week Could go Rick Astley or Beach Boys with multiple hits between 6/22-6/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 45 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Could go Rick Astley or Beach Boys with multiple hits between 6/22-6/25 The Beatles and the four seasons had at least two top ten hits in a week in 1964…I’m still thinking 100 is not out of the question before July…it was 99 on 6/30/64…and the next day… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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