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June 2022


bluewave
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Highest dewpoint  in 11 years for CVG to 80°. So the record heat and humidity will be very impressive to our west this week. Temperatures will rise to the upper 90s to around 100° next few days around the Great Lakes. Past record heat for the Great Lakes in mid-June also made it here. The 12z OP Euro has potential highs in the mid 90s for for Newark on Friday with a slower cold frontal passage and more sun. The other models including the EPS mean were cooler with more clouds and storms. The OP Euro matches past experience. So if the cooler models in the low 90s are right, then it would be a first for our area in mid-June. Looks much cooler behind the front for the weekend.
 

 

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10 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

I kept hearing about a rainy cold pattern and doom and gloom. Yet in 10 days i only have about .53. Plus the weather has generally been beautiful the past 2 weeks with many sunny days and 80s. Another winner this week! Still running above normal!

it’s rained this past weekend on both days lol. We are above avg in precipitation for June lol

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Late this afternoon, the temperature rose to 92° in Newark and 91° in Philadelphia. Tomorrow will be partly sunny and somewhat cooler. A shower or thundershower is possible at some locations. Overall, the remainder of the week will generally see somewhat above normal to above normal temperatures.

The heat responsible for topping numerous records in the Southwest moved into the Plains States and Southeast today. Records included:

Abilene: 105° (tied record set in 2011)
Asheville: 92° (old record: 91°, 1894 and 2016)
Charlotte: 98° (old record: 97°, 1945 and 1958)
Cheyenne: 94° (tied record set in 1956)
Columbia, SC: 103° (old record: 102°, 1958)
Denver: 99° (tied record set in 1994 and tied in 2006)
Goodland, KS: 103° (old record: 101°, 1924 and 1952)
McCook, NE: 109° Iold record: 103°, 1952)
North Platte, NE: 108° (old record: 103°, 1952) ***new June record***
St. Louis: 100° (old record: 98°, 1952)

Intense heat will move into the Great Lakes region for a brief time tomorrow through Wednesday. Temperatures from Chicago to Detroit could challenge or break daily record high temperatures. However, the core of the heat will not likely move into the Northeast. As a result, New York City will likely see temperatures peak in the middle and upper 80s. Newark could reach 90°.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around June 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +16.87 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.712 today.

On June 11 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.139 (RMM). The June 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.129 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.4° (0.4° above normal).

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly cloudy and warm. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 82°

Newark: 87°

Philadelphia: 82°

Through Friday, temperatures will be generally above normal.

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The next 8 days are averaging  73degs.(63/82) or near Normal.

Month to date is  70.5[+1.0].       Should be about  71.4[+0.8] by the 22nd.

Reached 84 here late in day.

Today: 77-82, cloudy early, clearing, wind n., 69 tomorrow AM.

TSs behaved as models predicted and affected southern NJ etc.     Slid from W to E with a southerly bent.

1655214300-ehFolOLBLKU.png

92 on Friday, except CMC-82.    Dry for a week.

71*(49%RH) here at 7am{was 78* at midnight},       78* at Noon.        75* at 1pm.

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